One week, two verdicts on AI: Grantham calls the top, Gavin Baker calls Anthropic worth $3 trillion
Jeremy Grantham says AI is the biggest investment bubble in history and US tech should be sold; a day later Gavin Baker priced Anthropic at $3 trillion while David Sacks and Jason Calacanis warned the real risk is losing the AI race to China. Elsewhere, Ryan Cohen made his $56 billion case for taking eBay, and three health interviews converged on the same advice: skip the hype, do the cheap proven thing.
Jun 22 – Jun 28, 20268 episodes4 shows251 claims on the record40 new predictions
01
Sell everything or $3 trillion: the AI bubble gets two prices
Jeremy Grantham, 87, used his sit-down with Steven Bartlett to tell retail investors to get out now: AI is the biggest investment bubble ever formed, US tech should be sold entirely, and from these levels a 70% decline in the high flyers would not surprise him. A day later on All-In, Gavin Baker looked at the same market and called Anthropic worth $3 trillion today, with revenue ending the year well over $100 billion. Vlad Barbalat, who allocates Liberty Mutual's $120 billion of permanent capital, refused to arbitrate: people are terrible at weighting the variables, volatility will be structurally higher, and by 2030 there will be trillion-dollar companies that don't exist yet. Same tape, three postures — exit, double down, prepare for everything.
“And now we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred, AI.”
GLM 5.2 closes to within a point of the frontier, and the panic turns inward
China's GLM 5.2 — open-source, MIT-licensed, 744 billion parameters — landed less than a percentage point behind Claude Opus 4.8 on frontier coding at roughly 85% below GPT 5.5's price, and the All-In panel spent the segment deciding whom to blame. Gavin Baker is certain distillation got it there. David Sacks puts Chinese models about nine months behind the US frontier and wants American AI exported before Huawei-based 'AI in a box' reaches the global market at a fraction of the cost. The sharper anxiety was self-inflicted: Sacks cast Anthropic's Fable rollback and Dario's call for an 'FAA for AI' as a regulatory moat in the making, and Jason Calacanis warned the US is beating itself. Jeremy Grantham, from the other end of the week's bubble argument, described the same industry as seven former monopolies locked in a winner-take-all war with one expected survivor.
“we have to be pro-export because China is going to be there within one or two years”
Ryan Cohen's $56 billion eBay raid: cut $2B, scale live commerce, go hostile if needed
Ryan Cohen's case to David Friedberg for his roughly $56 billion eBay bid is an operator's indictment: eBay has stopped growing while the rest of e-commerce grows, runs operating expenses above half its revenue despite carrying no inventory, has lost 30 million active users since COVID, and treats sellers — the customer, in a marketplace — as an afterthought. The fix he pitches is three moves: pull $2 billion of costs out immediately, scale eBay Live using GameStop's 1,600 stores as studios and fulfillment, and build a marketplace for in-game digital items he believes could outgrow the physical one. The board rejected the 50/50 cash-and-stock offer; Cohen has committed $500 million of his own money and is willing to go hostile. The idea, he says, came to him on the toilet — and life is too short to do it small.
“they're not growing, everybody else in e-commerce is growing, and they're making less money and they're spending a lot more”
The health desks converge: the cheap, boring fix beats the supplement aisle
The week's three health conversations arrived at one unfashionable rule: the proven, cheap intervention beats the hyped one. Matthew Walker called chasing sleep supplements stepping over dollars to pick up pennies — magnesium likely does nothing unless you are deficient, melatonin deserves caution after a 503% rise in US pediatric overdose admissions, and if you do only one thing, keep a regular schedule. Layne Norton drew the same line from randomized trials: creatine monohydrate is the most tested supplement there is, other forms are wasted money, and protein remains the biggest macronutrient lever. Rachel Rubin supplied the systemic version: a $14 vaginal estrogen cream prevents more than half of UTIs and, on her account, beats Viagra — yet only 1.7% of women who should be offered hormone therapy get prescriptions, because doctors are never trained in it.
“if you're suffering from sleep problems and you're looking to supplements, you're stepping over dollars to pick up pennies.”
Micron's revenue quadrupled year over year from $9 billion to $42 billion with its entire 2026 supply sold out; Gavin Baker expects DRAM to be 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex next year. ALL-IN →
Twenty years of Paul Eastwick's data across 40-plus countries finds men and women value the same traits to identical degrees once they evaluate people they have actually met — gender differences survive mainly in stated preferences. HUBERMAN LAB →
Eastwick calls dating apps a kleptocracy that rewards the already popular: women swipe yes on about 5% of the men they see, men on about 50%. HUBERMAN LAB →
Jeremy Grantham relays Shanna Swan's projection that, if the current rate of decline continues, the median male sperm count hits zero by 2045 — his case against plastics, pesticides, and endocrine disruptors. DIARY OF A CEO →
Chamath Palihapitiya bets under-16 social-media bans will de-radicalize youth politics in Canada, the UK, and Australia; Travis Kalanick counters that such bans are a Trojan horse for de-anonymization and censorship. ALL-IN →
In the 60,000-person UK Biobank study Matthew Walker cites, sleep regularity beat quantity at predicting all-cause mortality — the most regular sleepers had a 49% lower relative risk. DIARY OF A CEO →
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