PREDICTIONS ON THE RECORD
Dated and falsifiable — full record at /api/episode/<id>.
Aaron Cowen · unspecified · 2:29
MGM stock could easily be worth over $100, possibly $150 — a triple from current levels.
“I think the stock could be easily worth over $100, could be worth $150, and now you have Barry Diller, who is a, a firm bid owns 26% of the company”
Dan Dreyfus · multi-year, unspecified · 13:06
Talen Energy will generate ~$50/share of free cash flow doing nothing, ~$70/share if it signs more data-center deals, and over $100/share if it builds new power plants.
“these guys will be generating $50 a share of free cash flow per year... you get to $70 a share of recurring annual free cash flow, put a 15 multiple on that, that's 1,050... you could get up to over $100 a share of free cash flow.”
Dan Dreyfus · next 20 years · 13:06
Power markets will stay incredibly tight for the next 20 years even without AI demand.
“We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.”
Dan Dreyfus · next 10 years · 13:06
The PJM region will need 106 gigawatts of new power over the next 10 years, an amount the supply chain cannot deliver, keeping power prices very tight.
“over the next 10 years, we're going to need 106 gigawatts of new power in the PJM, in just one little area of the US.”
Oleg Nodelman · 2027 (Nectin-4 as early as Q1) · 27:18
Aktis will report initial clinical data in both lead programs in 2027, with Nectin-4 data as early as Q1 2027.
“Aktis started clinical trials last year and is publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of these lead programs in 2027, with Nectin-4 coming as early as Q1, so you won't have to wait long.”
Oleg Nodelman · within current lifetimes · 37:49
Average human lifespan in developed countries will extend well past 100 within the lifetimes of people in the room.
“I would take the over on that.”
Kyle Samani · next 12 months · 40:19
Geodnet's revenue will more than triple over the next 12 months.
“It's growing more than 3X year over year. I think it's going to probably more than triple over the next 12 months.”
Kyle Samani · coming months and years · 40:19
As DJI winds down in the US, most or all of the new wave of American drone manufacturers will end up on the Geodnet network.
“In the coming months and years, as DJI wounds down in the US, and you have a wave of American drone manufacturers pop up, I'm going to venture to guess that most, if not all of them are going to end up on the GeoNet network as well.”
David Sacks · next decade · 1:01:01
Satellite/microsat networks will replace all RTK and GPS within the next decade.
“It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade.”
WHO CLAIMED WHAT
Every position taken in the episode, attributed to its holder, with conviction (0–1) and the verbatim receipt.
Dan Dreyfus — 7 claims
assertionconviction 0.8513:06
The US does not need AI demand for power markets to stay extremely tight for the next 20 years — AI merely turbocharges an already-tight market.
“We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.
AI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does.”
fact_citedconviction 0.8513:06
Talen Energy trades at roughly a $25B enterprise value against a $45B replacement cost, so the equity is more than a double just to reach replacement value.
“you could purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value. The replacement cost is 45 billion and because they've got debt, it means that the equity value just to get to replacement cost, is more than a double from where it's trading today”
opinionconviction 0.813:06
A data center is functionally identical to an oil refinery — you put electricity in and intelligence comes out — making power the essential input to AI.
“With a data center, you put electricity in, and on the other end, instead of gasoline or jet fuel, out comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it. But it's the same thing.”
assertionconviction 0.8513:06
The AI power buildout is mandatory for the US — without it the country forfeits AI-driven scientific breakthroughs, robotics productivity, and national security.
“this is an absolutely mandatory build out that we have to do, otherwise we're going to fall behind.”
opinionconviction 0.813:06
Talen offers a double from management doing nothing (~$50/share FCF at 7x), rising toward $1,050 at $70/share on more deals, and over $100/share FCF if it builds new power plants.
“if they get into building power plants, and right now the regulator is telling these companies to go sit in a room... If they just build like four gigawatts of the 100 gigawatts that we need, you could get up to over $100 a share of free cash flow.”
opinionconviction 0.723:35
Human ingenuity will solve the AI power/regulatory bottleneck via PPAs plus battery and peaker capacity behind the data center, keeping consumer power bills relatively under control.
“Human ingenuity is going to win here. We're going to get our data centers and consumer power bills are going to be, I think, relatively under control.”
assertionconviction 0.813:06
Coal plants will not be retired on schedule because there is no way the US builds 100 GW of replacement power in PJM within ten years.
“we ain't retiring those coal plants because there's no world where we're going to be building 100 gigawatts in ten years.”
Oleg Nodelman — 5 claims
opinionconviction 0.7527:18
Aktis Oncology could be worth $10 billion (~$200/share) if even one of its programs reaches market.
“We think Aktis could be worth 10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market.”
assertionconviction 0.827:18
Radiopharmaceuticals are a rare real moat in biotech because generics avoid the class and the radioisotope supply chain is off-limits to China.
“Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off limits to China. So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat.”
opinionconviction 0.7527:18
A platform biotech that shows a signal gets credit for the whole platform, not just the program — the holy grail of getting value for the promise of what might come.
“This is the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come.”
opinionconviction 0.7527:18
EcoR1 deliberately is not run by PhDs or MDs so it falls in love with the risk-reward rather than the science.
“We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs, and that's by design, because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the risk reward.”
predictionconviction 0.637:49
Average human lifespan in developed countries will extend well past 100, in no small part because GLP-1 / obesity drugs act as longevity drugs via caloric restriction.
“I would take the over on that.
In no small part because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there, and folks don't even realize it in the GLIP-1s and the obesity drugs.”
Kyle Samani — 4 claims
opinionconviction 0.840:19
Geodnet looks like a natural telecom monopoly — telecoms form monopolies and Geodnet is already the largest, fastest-growing RTK network with the lowest cost structure.
“This thing looks like a natural telecom. You have base stations all over the world. You got to cover the whole planet. Telecoms naturally form monopolies. Historically, I think the same is likely to be true here.”
opinionconviction 0.8550:15
The Geodnet token is an unbelievably cheap asset — it returns $8.8M to holders at a $150M valuation and will grow 3x this year; the market ignores it only because of the crypto bear market.
“This thing is turning $8.8 million to shareholders, just trading at $150 million valuation, and it's going to grow 3X this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's crypto bear market right now.”
assertionconviction 0.7552:58
Satellite/microsat networks cannot replace ground-based RTK base stations because they can't compete on cost or energy use.
“There's no chance they can compete on cost because just sending things to space, satellites, that's so, I mean, these GeoNet base stations are a few hundred bucks. Like you're just not going to compete on cost with GeoNet.”
opinionconviction 0.8549:21
For Geodnet, you should own the token, not the equity — the token captures value via the 80% open-market buyback.
“You should own the token. I own a lot of the token, as you might imagine. I don't own any of the equity.”
David Sacks — 4 claims
opinionconviction 0.71:01:01
Satellite/LEO microsat networks will likely replace all RTK and GPS within a decade, undermining Geodnet's earth-based base-station model.
“the Geodnet piece, I just think the space thing is likely the path. It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade. It's an inevitable piggyback on systems that are already going up.”
opinionconviction 0.71:01:01
Improving the entertainment draw at MGM's Vegas properties can make gambling revenue 'fly' — an under-monetized upside Barry Diller is reportedly working on.
“when you have the entertainment draw, the gambling revenue just flies. And so Barry Diller, I have heard separately, has been spending a lot of time on trying to reinvent the entertainment at these properties”
opinionconviction 0.71:01:01
Talen is more interest-rate sensitive than MGM because its PPA-driven revenue means a rate spike would compress the assumed 15x multiple.
“I think it's more interest rate sensitive than MGM is, because the power purchase agreements really are where a lot of the revenue comes from... if interest rates shoot up... you actually get margin compression from that 15x outlook that he has for Talen.”
opinionconviction 0.651:01:01
Aktis carries real downside (50-75%) from China replication or new solid-tumor modalities, though Lilly could bid on it within six months on a good readout.
“there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 50-75% if they get a bad readout or China or some new modality comes out.”
Aaron Cowen — 3 claims
opinionconviction 0.852:29
MGM is a triple — the Vegas assets are worth ~$60, the Osaka Japan casino license another ~$50, and a future Dubai casino another $40-50.
“when you take the Vegas assets, which we think are worth about 60, when you take Japan, which we think is worth about 50 bucks, if Dubai happens, that's worth another 40 or $50. So, we think the stock is a triple.”
opinionconviction 0.852:29
Barry Diller is a financial (not strategic) buyer bidding for MGM to get rich off the Japan opportunity, which puts the company in play — holders should not tender their shares.
“He is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer, and he's doing it to get rich. So, therefore, I think this company is now in play.”
opinionconviction 0.82:29
MGM's real value is as an Asian casino play, not a Vegas play — the Osaka opportunity is what Diller is really chasing and is worth more than double the stock.
“what he's really doing is now trying to pick off the company to get the Japanese opportunity, which we think is worth more than double the stock.”
Gavin Baker — 3 claims
opinionconviction 0.7558:12
On pure risk-reward, MGM is the best pitch — downside is capped by the Barry Diller bid while Japan and Dubai provide valuable future upside.
“I do think from a pure risk reward perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid, and then you have Japan and Dubai has I think very valuable future sources of value.”
opinionconviction 0.758:12
Talen is compelling but everything in AI must grapple with rising regulatory risk — a change in administration or Congress could cap power prices or restrict terrestrial compute.
“I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing regulatory risk which we talked about last time”
opinionconviction 0.737:49
AI will unlock revolutionary therapies because the genome is too large a problem space for the unaided human mind or human-written software.
“my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans, and AI is going to unlock a lot of revolutionary therapies.”
Jason — 1 claim
opinionconviction 0.7555:00
MGM and Talen are the trades you can size into heavily, while Aktis and Geodnet are lottery tickets you can only take a small piece of — Geodnet especially has liquidity constraints.
“So I think MGM and Talen are the ones you could have huge sizing in. And then the other ones, I think you have a piece because they're like lottery tickets.”
Chamath — 1 claim
opinionconviction 0.751:03:26
Aktis and Geodnet are lottery tickets with crazy-return potential but high probability of going to zero, while MGM and Talen have downside protection.
“I think Aktis and Geod, those are like lottery tickets, could be crazy returns, but there's a big probability of a zero there if they don't actually work. And then MGM and Talen obviously got the downside protection”