{ "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "title": "All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live", "podcast": "all-in", "published_at": "2026-06-12", "speakers": [ "Chamath", "Jason", "David Sacks", "Kyle Samani", "Aaron Cowen", "Oleg Nodelman", "Dan Dreyfus", "Gavin" ], "summary": "A live 'Best Ideas' pitch competition (modeled on the Ira Sohn event) where four investors each present a single high-conviction trade to the All-In hosts and a guest judge, Gavin Baker. Aaron Cowen of Suvretta Capital pitches MGM Resorts as a triple, arguing its hidden Osaka and Dubai casino options are mispriced and that Barry Diller's $48 bid sets a floor. Dan Dreyfus pitches Talen Energy, framing power as the input to data-center 'refineries' and arguing the stock trades far below replacement cost with a structural power-demand supercycle behind it. Oleg Nodelman of EcoR1 Capital pitches Aktis Oncology, a radiopharmaceutical platform he believes could be worth $10B if a single program reads out. Kyle Samani pitches the Geodnet crypto token, a decentralized RTK geolocation network growing 3x year-over-year that returns 80% of revenue to token holders via open-market buybacks. The hosts and Gavin Baker debate sizing and risk-reward; the audience votes Dreyfus the winner while the besties' panel vote flips it to Cowen/MGM.", "topics": [ { "name": "Format intro: recreating the Ira Sohn pitch competition", "timestamp": "0:00", "summary": "Jason explains the event was inspired by the Ira Sohn Foundation conference where managers pitch their best ideas; he recounts his own past Sohn picks (Amazon as a trillion-dollar company in 2015, Tesla converts in 2016, and famously Box instead of Nvidia in 2017)." }, { "name": "Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts", "timestamp": "2:29", "summary": "Cowen of Suvretta Capital pitches MGM as a triple driven by two hidden assets — an Osaka, Japan casino license opening in 2030 and reserved casino space in a Dubai property — with Barry Diller's $48 takeover bid providing downside protection." }, { "name": "Dan Dreyfus pitches Talen Energy and the power supercycle", "timestamp": "13:06", "summary": "Dreyfus lays out the anatomy of a power-demand cycle, argues AI merely turbocharges an already-tight 20-year power market, frames data centers as electricity 'refineries,' and pitches Talen Energy (nuclear + gas baseload) as trading far below replacement cost with multiple paths to triple free cash flow per share." }, { "name": "Talen Q&A: regulatory risk, behind-the-meter, terminal multiple", "timestamp": "23:21", "summary": "Gavin Baker and Jason press Dreyfus on regulatory/political risk to power prices, whether the thesis needs co-location, competition from fuel cells and orbital compute, and the right terminal multiple as the business shifts from merchant to contracted infrastructure." }, { "name": "Oleg Nodelman pitches Aktis Oncology (radiopharmaceuticals)", "timestamp": "27:18", "summary": "Nodelman of EcoR1 Capital frames the history of cancer treatment as warfare and pitches Aktis Oncology, a radiopharmaceutical mini-protein platform targeting Nectin-4 and B7H3, with clinical data due in 2027, a China-proof moat from radioisotope supply, and a triangulated value of $10B if one program succeeds." }, { "name": "Aktis Q&A: China replication, longevity, AI, solid tumors", "timestamp": "34:41", "summary": "David Sacks probes the China-replication risk (Amgen v. Sanofi patent dynamics) and why radioisotopes resist Chinese copying; Gavin Baker asks about AI-driven lifespan extension, prompting Nodelman to credit GLP-1 obesity drugs as among the best longevity drugs via caloric restriction." }, { "name": "Kyle Samani pitches Geodnet (decentralized RTK crypto network)", "timestamp": "40:19", "summary": "Samani, formerly of Multicoin Capital, pitches the Geodnet token — a decentralized Real-Time Kinematics network delivering ~2cm geolocation, the world's largest RTK network with customers like John Deere, DJI and TomTom, growing 3x with 80% of revenue used to buy back tokens on the open market." }, { "name": "Geodnet Q&A: governance, token vs equity, satellite competition", "timestamp": "48:36", "summary": "Chamath probes Geodnet's corporate structure and whether to own the token or equity; David Sacks frames it as a revenue-share token and raises the threat of microsat/LEO networks replacing both GPS and earth-based RTK base stations." }, { "name": "Judging, sizing debate, and the vote", "timestamp": "54:47", "summary": "Jason, Gavin Baker, David Sacks and Chamath each assess risk-reward and sizing — MGM and Talen seen as sizable downside-protected trades, Aktis and Geodnet as lottery tickets. The audience votes Dreyfus #1; the besties' panel vote flips the top spot to Cowen/MGM." } ], "entities": [ { "name": "Aaron Cowen", "type": "person", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Founder of Suvretta Capital; pitched MGM Resorts as a triple. Won the besties' panel vote." }, { "name": "Dan Dreyfus", "type": "person", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Commodities/power investor; pitched Talen Energy and the power supercycle. Won the audience vote." }, { "name": "Oleg Nodelman", "type": "person", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Founder and managing director of EcoR1 Capital; pitched Aktis Oncology, a radiopharmaceutical biotech." }, { "name": "Kyle Samani", "type": "person", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Founder of Multicoin Capital (stepped down); pitched the Geodnet crypto token / decentralized RTK network." }, { "name": "Gavin Baker", "type": "person", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Guest judge and former biopharmaceutical fund manager; assessed risk-reward of each pitch and agreed to pitch a memory/silicon supercycle idea next year." }, { "name": "Chamath", "type": "person", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Host; ran the judging, probed governance/structure of pitches, and day-traded $200K into MGM and Talen in real time." }, { "name": "Jason", "type": "person", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Host; framed the event after Ira Sohn and led the audience Q&A and sizing discussion." }, { "name": "David Sacks", "type": "person", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Host; pressed on biotech China-replication risk and Geodnet's satellite-competition threat; ranked the pitches MGM, Talen, Aktis, Geodnet." }, { "name": "MGM Resorts", "type": "company", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Cowen's pitch — casino operator he argues is a triple driven by hidden Osaka and Dubai casino options plus a Barry Diller takeover bid." }, { "name": "Talen Energy", "type": "company", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Dreyfus's pitch — a nuclear and gas power producer trading below replacement cost with multiple paths to higher free cash flow per share." }, { "name": "Aktis Oncology", "type": "company", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Nodelman's pitch (ticker AKTS) — a radiopharmaceutical mini-protein platform targeting Nectin-4 and B7H3 with data due in 2027." }, { "name": "Geodnet", "type": "company", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Samani's pitch — a decentralized RTK geolocation crypto network (token GeoD) growing 3x year-over-year with John Deere, DJI and TomTom as customers." }, { "name": "Suvretta Capital", "type": "company", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "Aaron Cowen's $4 billion New York generalist hedge fund." }, { "name": "EcoR1 Capital", "type": "company", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "Oleg Nodelman's San Francisco value-oriented biotech fund (~$2.5B AUM)." }, { "name": "Multicoin Capital", "type": "company", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "Kyle Samani's former crypto fund, known for backing Solana; led a prior round in Geodnet." }, { "name": "Barry Diller", "type": "person", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Investor who owns 26% of MGM and bid $48/share for the company; central to Cowen's downside-protection thesis." }, { "name": "AI data centers", "type": "concept", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Framed by Dreyfus as electricity 'refineries' costing ~$50B/GW; the demand driver behind both the Talen power thesis and Geodnet's physical-AI tailwind." }, { "name": "nuclear power", "type": "concept", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Dreyfus argues both political sides are now leaning into nuclear; Talen owns 2 GW of nuclear baseload." }, { "name": "radiopharmaceuticals", "type": "concept", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "The modality behind Aktis — radioisotope-carrying mini-proteins Nodelman likens to precision microdrones; a fast-consolidating area of pharma M&A." }, { "name": "RTK", "type": "concept", "salience": "central", "role_in_episode": "Real-Time Kinematics — the ~2cm-precision geolocation technology Geodnet decentralizes; ~100x more accurate than consumer GPS." }, { "name": "China", "type": "place", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "Cited as the power-buildout benchmark (3x US generation), the biotech replication threat, and the country locked out of the radioisotope supply chain." }, { "name": "John Deere", "type": "company", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "Geodnet customer using its RTK network for autonomous spraying (GUS); also runs its own RTK systems, a point Sacks pressed on." }, { "name": "DJI", "type": "company", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "World's largest drone manufacturer and a Geodnet customer." }, { "name": "Eli Lilly", "type": "company", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "Backstopped Aktis's IPO with a $100M order and is among pharma majors hungry for radiotherapy assets." }, { "name": "Solana", "type": "concept", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "The blockchain the Geodnet (GeoD) token trades on; Samani is known for leading Multicoin's pre-launch Solana rounds." }, { "name": "Ira Sohn", "type": "concept", "salience": "mentioned", "role_in_episode": "The investment-pitch conference that inspired the format of this episode." }, { "name": "US electric grid", "type": "concept", "salience": "discussed", "role_in_episode": "The PJM region alone is forecast to need 106 GW of new power in 10 years; central to Dreyfus's tight-power thesis." } ], "claims": [ { "holder": "Aaron Cowen", "claim": "MGM is a triple — the Vegas assets are worth ~$60, the Osaka Japan casino license another ~$50, and a future Dubai casino another $40-50.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts" ], "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "when you take the Vegas assets, which we think are worth about 60, when you take Japan, which we think is worth about 50 bucks, if Dubai happens, that's worth another 40 or $50. So, we think the stock is a triple." }, { "holder": "Aaron Cowen", "claim": "Barry Diller is a financial (not strategic) buyer bidding for MGM to get rich off the Japan opportunity, which puts the company in play — holders should not tender their shares.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Barry Diller" ], "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "He is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer, and he's doing it to get rich. So, therefore, I think this company is now in play." }, { "holder": "Aaron Cowen", "claim": "MGM's real value is as an Asian casino play, not a Vegas play — the Osaka opportunity is what Diller is really chasing and is worth more than double the stock.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts" ], "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "what he's really doing is now trying to pick off the company to get the Japanese opportunity, which we think is worth more than double the stock." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "The US does not need AI demand for power markets to stay extremely tight for the next 20 years — AI merely turbocharges an already-tight market.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI data centers", "US electric grid" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.\nAI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "Talen Energy trades at roughly a $25B enterprise value against a $45B replacement cost, so the equity is more than a double just to reach replacement value.", "stance": "fact_cited", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "you could purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value. The replacement cost is 45 billion and because they've got debt, it means that the equity value just to get to replacement cost, is more than a double from where it's trading today" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "A data center is functionally identical to an oil refinery — you put electricity in and intelligence comes out — making power the essential input to AI.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI data centers", "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "With a data center, you put electricity in, and on the other end, instead of gasoline or jet fuel, out comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it. But it's the same thing." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "The AI power buildout is mandatory for the US — without it the country forfeits AI-driven scientific breakthroughs, robotics productivity, and national security.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI data centers", "China" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "this is an absolutely mandatory build out that we have to do, otherwise we're going to fall behind." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "Talen offers a double from management doing nothing (~$50/share FCF at 7x), rising toward $1,050 at $70/share on more deals, and over $100/share FCF if it builds new power plants.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "if they get into building power plants, and right now the regulator is telling these companies to go sit in a room... If they just build like four gigawatts of the 100 gigawatts that we need, you could get up to over $100 a share of free cash flow." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "Human ingenuity will solve the AI power/regulatory bottleneck via PPAs plus battery and peaker capacity behind the data center, keeping consumer power bills relatively under control.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Talen Energy", "US electric grid" ], "timestamp": "23:35", "quote": "Human ingenuity is going to win here. We're going to get our data centers and consumer power bills are going to be, I think, relatively under control." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "Coal plants will not be retired on schedule because there is no way the US builds 100 GW of replacement power in PJM within ten years.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "US electric grid" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "we ain't retiring those coal plants because there's no world where we're going to be building 100 gigawatts in ten years." }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "claim": "Aktis Oncology could be worth $10 billion (~$200/share) if even one of its programs reaches market.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology" ], "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "We think Aktis could be worth 10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market." }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "claim": "Radiopharmaceuticals are a rare real moat in biotech because generics avoid the class and the radioisotope supply chain is off-limits to China.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "radiopharmaceuticals", "China" ], "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off limits to China. So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat." }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "claim": "A platform biotech that shows a signal gets credit for the whole platform, not just the program — the holy grail of getting value for the promise of what might come.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "radiopharmaceuticals" ], "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "This is the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come." }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "claim": "EcoR1 deliberately is not run by PhDs or MDs so it falls in love with the risk-reward rather than the science.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "EcoR1 Capital" ], "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs, and that's by design, because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the risk reward." }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "claim": "Average human lifespan in developed countries will extend well past 100, in no small part because GLP-1 / obesity drugs act as longevity drugs via caloric restriction.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "radiopharmaceuticals" ], "timestamp": "37:49", "quote": "I would take the over on that.\nIn no small part because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there, and folks don't even realize it in the GLIP-1s and the obesity drugs." }, { "holder": "Kyle Samani", "claim": "Geodnet looks like a natural telecom monopoly — telecoms form monopolies and Geodnet is already the largest, fastest-growing RTK network with the lowest cost structure.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "RTK" ], "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "This thing looks like a natural telecom. You have base stations all over the world. You got to cover the whole planet. Telecoms naturally form monopolies. Historically, I think the same is likely to be true here." }, { "holder": "Kyle Samani", "claim": "The Geodnet token is an unbelievably cheap asset — it returns $8.8M to holders at a $150M valuation and will grow 3x this year; the market ignores it only because of the crypto bear market.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Geodnet" ], "timestamp": "50:15", "quote": "This thing is turning $8.8 million to shareholders, just trading at $150 million valuation, and it's going to grow 3X this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's crypto bear market right now." }, { "holder": "Kyle Samani", "claim": "Satellite/microsat networks cannot replace ground-based RTK base stations because they can't compete on cost or energy use.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "RTK" ], "timestamp": "52:58", "quote": "There's no chance they can compete on cost because just sending things to space, satellites, that's so, I mean, these GeoNet base stations are a few hundred bucks. Like you're just not going to compete on cost with GeoNet." }, { "holder": "Kyle Samani", "claim": "For Geodnet, you should own the token, not the equity — the token captures value via the 80% open-market buyback.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "Solana" ], "timestamp": "49:21", "quote": "You should own the token. I own a lot of the token, as you might imagine. I don't own any of the equity." }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Satellite/LEO microsat networks will likely replace all RTK and GPS within a decade, undermining Geodnet's earth-based base-station model.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "RTK" ], "timestamp": "1:01:01", "quote": "the Geodnet piece, I just think the space thing is likely the path. It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade. It's an inevitable piggyback on systems that are already going up." }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Improving the entertainment draw at MGM's Vegas properties can make gambling revenue 'fly' — an under-monetized upside Barry Diller is reportedly working on.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Barry Diller" ], "timestamp": "1:01:01", "quote": "when you have the entertainment draw, the gambling revenue just flies. And so Barry Diller, I have heard separately, has been spending a lot of time on trying to reinvent the entertainment at these properties" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Talen is more interest-rate sensitive than MGM because its PPA-driven revenue means a rate spike would compress the assumed 15x multiple.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "1:01:01", "quote": "I think it's more interest rate sensitive than MGM is, because the power purchase agreements really are where a lot of the revenue comes from... if interest rates shoot up... you actually get margin compression from that 15x outlook that he has for Talen." }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Aktis carries real downside (50-75%) from China replication or new solid-tumor modalities, though Lilly could bid on it within six months on a good readout.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:01:01", "quote": "there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 50-75% if they get a bad readout or China or some new modality comes out." }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "On pure risk-reward, MGM is the best pitch — downside is capped by the Barry Diller bid while Japan and Dubai provide valuable future upside.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Barry Diller" ], "timestamp": "58:12", "quote": "I do think from a pure risk reward perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid, and then you have Japan and Dubai has I think very valuable future sources of value." }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "Talen is compelling but everything in AI must grapple with rising regulatory risk — a change in administration or Congress could cap power prices or restrict terrestrial compute.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Talen Energy", "AI data centers" ], "timestamp": "58:12", "quote": "I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing regulatory risk which we talked about last time" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "AI will unlock revolutionary therapies because the genome is too large a problem space for the unaided human mind or human-written software.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "radiopharmaceuticals" ], "timestamp": "37:49", "quote": "my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans, and AI is going to unlock a lot of revolutionary therapies." }, { "holder": "Jason", "claim": "MGM and Talen are the trades you can size into heavily, while Aktis and Geodnet are lottery tickets you can only take a small piece of — Geodnet especially has liquidity constraints.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Talen Energy", "Geodnet" ], "timestamp": "55:00", "quote": "So I think MGM and Talen are the ones you could have huge sizing in. And then the other ones, I think you have a piece because they're like lottery tickets." }, { "holder": "Chamath", "claim": "Aktis and Geodnet are lottery tickets with crazy-return potential but high probability of going to zero, while MGM and Talen have downside protection.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "Geodnet", "MGM Resorts", "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "1:03:26", "quote": "I think Aktis and Geod, those are like lottery tickets, could be crazy returns, but there's a big probability of a zero there if they don't actually work. And then MGM and Talen obviously got the downside protection" } ], "predictions": [ { "holder": "Aaron Cowen", "prediction": "MGM stock could easily be worth over $100, possibly $150 — a triple from current levels.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts" ], "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "I think the stock could be easily worth over $100, could be worth $150, and now you have Barry Diller, who is a, a firm bid owns 26% of the company" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "prediction": "Talen Energy will generate ~$50/share of free cash flow doing nothing, ~$70/share if it signs more data-center deals, and over $100/share if it builds new power plants.", "timeframe": "multi-year, unspecified", "subjects": [ "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "these guys will be generating $50 a share of free cash flow per year... you get to $70 a share of recurring annual free cash flow, put a 15 multiple on that, that's 1,050... you could get up to over $100 a share of free cash flow." }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "prediction": "Power markets will stay incredibly tight for the next 20 years even without AI demand.", "timeframe": "next 20 years", "subjects": [ "US electric grid", "Talen Energy" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.", "due": "2046-06-12" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "prediction": "The PJM region will need 106 gigawatts of new power over the next 10 years, an amount the supply chain cannot deliver, keeping power prices very tight.", "timeframe": "next 10 years", "subjects": [ "US electric grid" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "over the next 10 years, we're going to need 106 gigawatts of new power in the PJM, in just one little area of the US.", "due": "2036-06-12" }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "prediction": "Aktis will report initial clinical data in both lead programs in 2027, with Nectin-4 data as early as Q1 2027.", "timeframe": "2027 (Nectin-4 as early as Q1)", "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology" ], "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "Aktis started clinical trials last year and is publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of these lead programs in 2027, with Nectin-4 coming as early as Q1, so you won't have to wait long.", "due": "2027-03-31" }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "prediction": "Average human lifespan in developed countries will extend well past 100 within the lifetimes of people in the room.", "timeframe": "within current lifetimes", "subjects": [ "radiopharmaceuticals" ], "timestamp": "37:49", "quote": "I would take the over on that." }, { "holder": "Kyle Samani", "prediction": "Geodnet's revenue will more than triple over the next 12 months.", "timeframe": "next 12 months", "subjects": [ "Geodnet" ], "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "It's growing more than 3X year over year. I think it's going to probably more than triple over the next 12 months.", "due": "2027-06-12" }, { "holder": "Kyle Samani", "prediction": "As DJI winds down in the US, most or all of the new wave of American drone manufacturers will end up on the Geodnet network.", "timeframe": "coming months and years", "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "DJI" ], "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "In the coming months and years, as DJI wounds down in the US, and you have a wave of American drone manufacturers pop up, I'm going to venture to guess that most, if not all of them are going to end up on the GeoNet network as well." }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "Satellite/microsat networks will replace all RTK and GPS within the next decade.", "timeframe": "next decade", "subjects": [ "RTK", "Geodnet" ], "timestamp": "1:01:01", "quote": "It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade.", "due": "2036-06-12" } ], "facts": [ { "statement": "Aaron Cowen runs Suvretta Capital, a $4 billion New York hedge fund; he previously ran the equities business for George Soros and was CIO for Steve Cohen, with 29 years in hedge funds.", "subjects": [ "Aaron Cowen", "Suvretta Capital" ], "value": "$4 billion firm; 29 years", "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "I run a four billion dollar firm in New York called Suvretta Capital. Before founding my firm, I ran the equities business for George Soros. I was then CIO for Steve Cohen. And I've been doing hedge funds now for 29 years.", "source": "Aaron Cowen" }, { "statement": "Barry Diller owns 26% of MGM and bid $48/share for the company; the stock had been about $37 two weeks earlier and is now in the high 40s.", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Barry Diller" ], "value": "26% ownership; $48/share bid", "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "Barry now owns 26% of the company. Now I put this presentation together two weeks ago.\nYesterday he actually bid for the company. Okay, so when I put the presentation together, the stock was about $37. It's now high 40s. He bid $48", "source": "Aaron Cowen" }, { "statement": "MGM holds a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan, opening in 2030, in which it owns 40% of the property; the firm estimates ~$2 billion of EBITDA from it.", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts" ], "value": "Osaka casino, 2030 open, 40% owned, ~$2B EBITDA", "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "What they have now is a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan... It's going to open in 2030... We're estimating they'll do about $2 billion of EBITDA. They own 40% of the property.", "source": "Aaron Cowen" }, { "statement": "Japan's gambling market (pachinko and horses) is about $40 billion, versus $30 billion for Macau and $10 billion for Vegas.", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts" ], "value": "Japan $40B, Macau $30B, Vegas $10B", "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "That's about a $40 billion market. If you look at the market in Macau, that's $30 billion. And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion.", "source": "Aaron Cowen" }, { "statement": "MGM is building a complex in Dubai with an Aria, MGM and Bellagio, including 300,000 square feet of empty space reserved in case Dubai legalizes gambling.", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts" ], "value": "300,000 sq ft reserved", "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "they have snuck in this building, 300,000 square feet of space. Well, one day, if Dubai decides to legalize gambling, guess where it's going? Right there.", "source": "Aaron Cowen" }, { "statement": "Talen Energy owns two gigawatts of nuclear power and six gigawatts of natural gas baseload power.", "subjects": [ "Talen Energy", "nuclear power" ], "value": "2 GW nuclear + 6 GW gas", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "Talen Energy is a power producer. They have two gigawatts of nuclear power and they've got six gigawatts of natural gas baseload power.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus" }, { "statement": "China started the cycle with half the US power generation capacity but now has three times the US capacity.", "subjects": [ "China", "US electric grid" ], "value": "US 2x China -> China 3x US", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "we started out this cycle with having 2x the power generation that China had. Fast forward to today, China has three times the power generation capacity that we have.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus" }, { "statement": "A gigawatt-scale data center costs about $50 billion per gigawatt to build.", "subjects": [ "AI data centers" ], "value": "$50 billion per gigawatt", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "Big capital intensive asset, $50 billion per gigawatt.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus" }, { "statement": "Jensen Huang was recently quoted saying the world needs a thousand times more power than it currently has.", "subjects": [ "AI data centers" ], "value": "1000x more power", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "here's Jensen, and he was just recently quoted that we need a thousand times more power than we currently have.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus" }, { "statement": "Microsoft agreed to pay Constellation Energy $100/MWh for 20 years (vs a $50/MWh spot price) to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor.", "subjects": [ "nuclear power" ], "value": "$100/MWh for 20 years vs $50 spot", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "power prices today are $50 a megawatt hour. We'll pay you 100 a year for 20 years minimum price for you guys to start this up. And so here we have it, Three Mile Island brought to you by Microsoft Azure.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus" }, { "statement": "Talen stock is in the high $300s, trading at about seven times free cash flow, versus ~15x for good US infrastructure assets.", "subjects": [ "Talen Energy" ], "value": "~7x FCF vs ~15x peers", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "Again, the stock is in the high 300s. It's about seven times free cash flow. Good infrastructure assets in the US traded about 15 times.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus" }, { "statement": "Aktis Oncology (ticker AKTS) has a billion-dollar market cap, a $500 million enterprise value, and a cash runway of over three years.", "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology" ], "value": "$1B market cap, $500M EV, 3+ years cash", "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "The ticker is AKTS. The company has a billion-dollar market cap, a $500 million enterprise value, and a stockpile of cash which should last them over three years", "source": "Oleg Nodelman" }, { "statement": "Aktis went public via a $300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed and backstopped with a $100 million order from Eli Lilly.", "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "Eli Lilly" ], "value": "$300M IPO, 18x oversubscribed, $100M Lilly order", "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "recently went public with a $300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed and backstopped with a $100 million order by Eli Lilly", "source": "Oleg Nodelman" }, { "statement": "There has been roughly $15 billion of M&A dealmaking in radiotherapy in the last few years.", "subjects": [ "radiopharmaceuticals" ], "value": "$15 billion M&A", "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "There's been 15 billion M&A in deal-making and radiotherapy in the last few years, and we're very much in the early innings.", "source": "Oleg Nodelman" }, { "statement": "EcoR1 Capital launched in 2013 with $13 million, has 10x'd for investors at a 20% annualized return, and now manages about $2.5 billion.", "subjects": [ "EcoR1 Capital" ], "value": "$13M -> $2.5B AUM; 10x; 20% annualized", "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "launched EcoR1 in 2013, humble beginnings with 13 million. Since inception, we've 10x'd to our investors and annualized at 20 percent. And today we have about 2.5 billion under management.", "source": "Oleg Nodelman" }, { "statement": "Aktis's radioisotope payload is Actinium, manufactured from Radium 233 as a waste product of US nuclear programs in the 1950s-60s, which is why it is unavailable in China.", "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "China" ], "timestamp": "34:45", "quote": "Actis' radioisotope payload is Actinium. And Actinium is manufactured from Radium 233, which was used in our own nuclear programs in the US in the 50s and 60s. So it's a waste product from there.", "source": "Oleg Nodelman" }, { "statement": "Geodnet's RTK technology localizes position to about 2 centimeters versus roughly 2 meters for consumer GPS — about 100x more accurate.", "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "RTK" ], "value": "~2cm vs ~2m (100x)", "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "you can localize your location down to about 2 centimeters. For context, GPS, roughly the precision is about 2 meters. So you're getting about 100x accuracy", "source": "Kyle Samani" }, { "statement": "Geodnet, founded in 2021, has roughly 22,000 nodes and is about twice the size of Trimble, Hexagon and Topcon combined (~12,000 base stations), live in 150 countries and 11,000+ cities covering ~80% of global population.", "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "RTK" ], "value": "22,000 nodes; 150 countries; ~80% of population", "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "All of them combined have roughly 12,000 base stations deployed around the world. GeoNet was founded in 2021, began building out the network in 2022, and today they are roughly twice the size of the next three guys combined.", "source": "Kyle Samani" }, { "statement": "Geodnet just crossed about $11 million in annualized revenue run rate, growing more than 3x year over year, with ~$8.8 million (80% of revenue) used to buy GeoTokens on the open market.", "subjects": [ "Geodnet" ], "value": "$11M ARR; 80% buyback = $8.8M/yr", "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "the business just crossed about $11 million in annualized run rate a few days ago. It's growing more than 3X year over year.", "source": "Kyle Samani" }, { "statement": "Geodnet customers typically spend ~$60,000 in year one and ~$170,000 in year two — roughly 3x growth per customer.", "subjects": [ "Geodnet" ], "value": "$60K yr1 -> $170K yr2", "timestamp": "40:19", "quote": "Once someone starts rolling out GeoNet in the first year, they're usually spending about $60,000 per year. After two years though, they're usually spending about $170,000 per year.", "source": "Kyle Samani" }, { "statement": "The Geodnet token (GeoD) trades on the Solana blockchain at about $150 million fully diluted, though CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap show ~$60-70 million because not all tokens are floating.", "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "Solana" ], "value": "~$150M FDV; ~$60-70M float", "timestamp": "48:39", "quote": "it's trading about 150 million on a fully diluted basis. If you were to go look at any of the crypto price websites like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, they're going to show you something like 60 or 70 million.", "source": "Kyle Samani" }, { "statement": "Geodnet is a US-based corporation with a four-person team in San Francisco; its CEO is Mike Horton, and Multicoin led a prior venture round in it.", "subjects": [ "Geodnet", "Multicoin Capital" ], "timestamp": "49:03", "quote": "the GeoNet team is a US based corporation. They're four teams in San Francisco. The CEO's name is Mike Horton.", "source": "Kyle Samani" }, { "statement": "Chamath day-traded $200K into both MGM and Talen in real time during the episode and reported being up 7% across the portfolio.", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Talen Energy" ], "value": "$200K each; +7%", "timestamp": "1:03:26", "quote": "I put 200K into each in real time.", "source": "Chamath" }, { "statement": "The audience voted Dan Dreyfus's Talen pitch #1 with 50% of the vote, Aaron Cowen/MGM second with 24%, Oleg/Aktis third with 21%, and Kyle Samani/Geodnet fourth with 5%.", "subjects": [ "Talen Energy", "MGM Resorts", "Aktis Oncology", "Geodnet" ], "value": "Dreyfus 50%, Cowen 24%, Nodelman 21%, Samani 5%", "timestamp": "1:06:05", "quote": "with 24 percent of the vote, in second place, Aaron Cowen for MGM, number 1 with 50 percent of the vote, Dan Dreyfus.", "source": "Jason" }, { "statement": "The besties' panel vote ranked the pitches Aaron Cowen/MGM first, Dan Dreyfus/Talen second, Oleg/Aktis third, and Kyle Samani/Geodnet fourth — flipping the audience vote.", "subjects": [ "MGM Resorts", "Talen Energy", "Aktis Oncology", "Geodnet" ], "timestamp": "1:07:20", "quote": "Second place, Dan Dreyfus. First place, Aaron Cowen. Big upset. Flipped the audience vote.", "source": "Jason" } ], "notable_quotes": [ { "speaker": "Dan Dreyfus", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "With a data center, you put electricity in, and on the other end, instead of gasoline or jet fuel, out comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it. But it's the same thing.", "why": "Dreyfus's central framing of a data center as an electricity refinery — the conceptual core of his power-supercycle thesis." }, { "speaker": "Dan Dreyfus", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.\nAI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does.", "why": "The contrarian punchline of the Talen pitch — that the power-shortage trade works even if AI underdelivers." }, { "speaker": "Aaron Cowen", "timestamp": "2:29", "quote": "He is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer, and he's doing it to get rich. So, therefore, I think this company is now in play.", "why": "Crystallizes the MGM thesis — Barry Diller's bid both floors the downside and signals the hidden upside." }, { "speaker": "Oleg Nodelman", "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off limits to China. So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat.", "why": "The differentiating claim of the Aktis pitch — a China-proof moat in a sector usually defined by replication risk." }, { "speaker": "Kyle Samani", "timestamp": "50:15", "quote": "This thing is turning $8.8 million to shareholders, just trading at $150 million valuation, and it's going to grow 3X this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset.", "why": "The valuation case for Geodnet, reframing a crypto token as a cash-flow-returning growth asset." }, { "speaker": "Gavin", "timestamp": "1:00:14", "quote": "I feel about crypto exactly the way I do about snowboarding. I'm not a very good athlete. I've spent a lifetime learning how to ski, and I'm okay.", "why": "Gavin Baker's memorable explanation for why he sits out crypto despite finding the Geodnet pitch fascinating — a 'pain for the game' rationale." } ], "extracted_by": "agent", "prompt_version": "episode-extract@3", "_file": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th.json" }