{
 "name": "self-driving",
 "type": "concept",
 "episodes": [
  "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
  "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-",
  "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "Cities that ban self-driving to protect jobs will get sued for wrongful death, because you could have implemented a zero-death-rate solution — unlike package sorting.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "32:26",
   "quote": "They're going to get sued for wrongful death",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Going to a city where you can't get a robotaxi will come to feel barbaric and unsafe, so self-driving bans won't persist regardless of what municipalities decide.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "32:48",
   "quote": "going to a city where you can't get an away mo or a cyber cab is going to feel barbaric and unsafe",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "claim": "There will be massive AI-driven job displacement because CEOs believe AI lets them do more with less and the market rewards higher earnings; he takes CEOs at their word that they are eliminating jobs.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "AI washing",
    "Meta",
    "Amazon",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:09:20",
   "quote": "there's going to be a massive job displacement that occurs. And that massive job displacement is going to come because CEOs, in many cases believe that this technology is going to make people more efficient, can do more with less",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-29"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "claim": "Self-driving (Waymo, robotaxis) and robotics (Optimus, package-sorting robots) will eliminate the jobs of cab drivers, truck drivers and warehouse sorters within roughly a decade.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving",
    "Amazon"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:09:20",
   "quote": "Every cab driver is losing their job. Every truck driver is losing their job in the next 10 years. Anybody sorting packages is losing their job.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-29"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Gurley",
   "claim": "A 100% automated driving solution is unlikely because the economics don't work; non-ownership car use will rise and humans may still do ~50% of it, so driving-job counts could hold or grow.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.65,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:22:20",
   "quote": "I think it's impossible to go with 100% automated solution because the economics don't work well.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-29"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "There will not be a single winner in AVs; like foundation models, there will be many players.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "24:26",
   "quote": "Just like you're seeing in the foundation model space, there isn't going to be a single winner.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "Uber's AV play is to be the go-to-market solution for digital-driver builders by owning the surrounding ecosystem: depots, charging, fleets, financing, insurance, data, and instant demand.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "24:26",
   "quote": "we want to be your go-to-market solution for companies that are building out these digital drivers",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "AV magic will normalize quickly—what feels magical now will seem normal within a decade, and adoption will move faster than expected.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "26:34",
   "quote": "what's magical now is going to seem normal to all of us 10 years from now",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "AV players like Waymo will both compete with Uber and use it for utilization—an amalgamation of business models like travel OTAs and food delivery, not a binary compete-or-cooperate outcome.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "Waymo",
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "28:12",
   "quote": "We think there's going to be an amalgamation of business models. There already is in travel, there already is in food. Same thing will happen in transportation.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "The biggest AV industry risk is public backlash: the industry must communicate and move at the pace society is prepared for.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving",
    "AI backlash"
   ],
   "timestamp": "29:59",
   "quote": "we've got to go at the pace that society is prepared for us to move. Otherwise, there will be a backlash",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "Early evidence suggests AVs add incremental demand to the Uber platform—drivers in the Waymo partnership cities of Austin and Atlanta are earning more and driver sign-ups are increasing.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.6,
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving",
    "Uber",
    "Waymo"
   ],
   "timestamp": "29:59",
   "quote": "it looks like AVs are actually adding incremental demand to the platform",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "If the public-perception risk is solved, the controllable pre-mortem for Uber's AV bet is failing to secure access to supply, which is why it partners with essentially every AV provider.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "31:38",
   "quote": "We need access to supply and we're investing time. We're investing capital.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "Lowering the cost of transportation expands demand—Uber became multiple times bigger than the taxi market it was sized against, and AVs have the same potential.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "32:17",
   "quote": "as we bring the cost of our services down, demand goes up",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "claim": "Chinese AV manufacturing capability in quality and cost is currently unrivaled, and the Western hemisphere needs but does not yet have an equivalent low-cost contract manufacturer.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.9,
   "subjects": [
    "China",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "33:53",
   "quote": "The Chinese capabilities in terms of manufacturing, both in terms of quality and cost at this point is unrivaled.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "prediction": "Self-driving and robotics will eliminate the jobs of cab drivers, truck drivers and warehouse package-sorters within the next decade.",
   "timeframe": "within 10 years",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving",
    "Amazon"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:09:20",
   "quote": "Every cab driver is losing their job. Every truck driver is losing their job in the next 10 years. Anybody sorting packages is losing their job.",
   "due": "2036-05-29",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-29"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "prediction": "There will be many winners in AVs rather than a single winner, mirroring the foundation model landscape.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "24:26",
   "quote": "Just like you're seeing in the foundation model space, there isn't going to be a single winner.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "prediction": "What feels magical about AVs today will seem normal to everyone within ten years.",
   "timeframe": "10 years",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "26:34",
   "quote": "what's magical now is going to seem normal to all of us 10 years from now",
   "due": "2036-06-03",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "prediction": "AVs will create another trillion-dollar marketplace for Uber over the long term as software and hardware costs fall.",
   "timeframe": "long term",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving",
    "Uber"
   ],
   "timestamp": "32:17",
   "quote": "We think it's another trillion dollar marketplace.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "prediction": "Traditional OEMs will reach L4-ready vehicle production within the next two to four years.",
   "timeframe": "next two to four years",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "33:53",
   "quote": "I think you'll see the traditional players get there over the next two to four years.",
   "due": "2030-06-03",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "prediction": "Uber will have robotaxi pilots in London before the end of the year.",
   "timeframe": "before end of 2026",
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "36:37",
   "quote": "I think we will have pilots, for example, in London before the end of the year.",
   "due": "2026-12-31",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  }
 ],
 "facts": [
  {
   "statement": "There are about 50,000 automotive deaths per year in the United States and roughly a million globally.",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "value": "50,000 US / ~1M global deaths per year",
   "timestamp": "33:04",
   "quote": "There's 50,000 automotive deaths per year in the United States, if I recall correctly, and a million globally",
   "source": "Gavin Baker",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Uber has over 30 AV partnerships, including Waymo, Nuro, Lucid, NVIDIA, Wayve, WeRide, and Pony AI.",
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "value": "30+ AV partnerships",
   "timestamp": "24:26",
   "quote": "We've got over 30 partnerships now",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Uber announced a billion-dollar financing line with Santander for EV and AV fleets.",
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "Santander",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "value": "$1B financing line",
   "timestamp": "24:26",
   "quote": "We just announced the billion-dollar financing line with Santander for EV fleets and AV fleets.",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "statement": "AVs on Uber's network are 30% or more busier (trips and revenue per vehicle per day) than first-party AVs not on the network.",
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "value": "30%+ higher utilization",
   "timestamp": "24:26",
   "quote": "AVs that are on our network are 30% or more busy than let's say 1P AVs who aren't using our network",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Uber has two big Waymo partnerships in Austin and Atlanta, where drivers on the platform are making more money and driver sign-ups are increasing.",
   "subjects": [
    "Uber",
    "Waymo",
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "29:59",
   "quote": "Now drivers in Austin and Atlanta, where we have two big partnerships with Waymo. Drivers on the Uber platform, they're making more money.",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "statement": "AV hardware costs typically fall 30 to 40% per generation; the Lucid midsize being built with Nuro for Uber would be a $60,000-$70,000 car.",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving",
    "Lucid",
    "Nuro"
   ],
   "value": "30-40% cost decline per generation; $60-70K vehicle",
   "timestamp": "32:17",
   "quote": "We think the lucid mid-size that they are building for us and Neuro together, it would be $60,000, $70,000 car.",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Each AV probably drives three to four times as much as a human driver does.",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "value": "3-4x human utilization",
   "timestamp": "33:53",
   "quote": "Each of these vehicles probably drives three to four times what a human does.",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Abu Dhabi and Dubai already have AV operations with no vehicle operators, with Middle East regulators leaning into the technology.",
   "subjects": [
    "self-driving"
   ],
   "timestamp": "36:37",
   "quote": "No vehicle operators in Abu Dhabi, Dubai.",
   "source": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  }
 ],
 "first_seen": "2026-05-22",
 "last_seen": "2026-06-03"
}