{
 "name": "rare earths",
 "type": "concept",
 "episodes": [
  "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here",
  "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Dan Dreyfus",
   "claim": "China has an absolute grip on critical minerals, and it will take at least 10 years, probably 20, for the US to close that gap.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.9,
   "subjects": [
    "China",
    "critical minerals",
    "rare earths"
   ],
   "timestamp": "0:03",
   "quote": "China has an absolute grip. It's absolute on all of these critical minerals. And it's going to take at least 10 years, probably 20 to catch up.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-10"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dan Dreyfus",
   "claim": "Rare earths are geologically abundant and new extraction technology will unlock large supplies; the binding constraint is Chinese monopoly on processing/conversion, not the ore itself.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "rare earths",
    "China"
   ],
   "timestamp": "18:07",
   "quote": "rare earths are everywhere. And the technology to extract rare earths is going to allow us to have a huge abundance of them. But the problem is processing them.\nThat's the problem. The Chinese have all the technological know-how to convert what you take out of the ground",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-10"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ezra Klein",
   "claim": "China's dominance in rare earths and magnets was so complete that it could break Trump's tariff policy and trade war simply by threatening US access.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "China",
    "United States",
    "rare earths"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:17:42",
   "quote": "they were so dominant in it that they were able to break Trump's tariff policy, break his trade war by simply threatening to remove our access to their rare earths and magnets",
   "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants",
   "published_at": "2026-07-14"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Kevin Rudd",
   "claim": "The Chinese are disciplined masters of economic statecraft who understand precisely where their leverage lies, because their political culture is dominated by engineers.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "China",
    "rare earths"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:18:01",
   "quote": "The Chinese are highly intelligent, highly disciplined masters of economic statecraft, and they know where leverage lies.",
   "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants",
   "published_at": "2026-07-14"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "holder": "Dan Dreyfus",
   "prediction": "It will take 10 to 20 years before the US can close the gap with China on critical minerals supply.",
   "timeframe": "10 to 20 years",
   "subjects": [
    "critical minerals",
    "China",
    "rare earths"
   ],
   "timestamp": "0:03",
   "quote": "it's going to take at least 10 years, probably 20 to catch up.",
   "due": "2046-06-10",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-10"
  }
 ],
 "facts": [
  {
   "statement": "China announced in April (implied ~2025) it would cut off exports of Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium, Erbium, and Silver to the US.",
   "subjects": [
    "China",
    "rare earths",
    "critical minerals"
   ],
   "timestamp": "0:03",
   "quote": "Last April, China announced that they were gonna cut off exports of some critical materials to the US. Samarium, Gandolinium, Turbium, Disprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium, Erbium, Silver. Just cut it off.",
   "source": "Dan Dreyfus",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-10"
  }
 ],
 "first_seen": "2026-06-10",
 "last_seen": "2026-07-14"
}