{
 "name": "jobs",
 "type": "concept",
 "episodes": [
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Nick Hanauer",
   "claim": "AI company valuations are predicated on job displacement — the numbers don't work without displacing lots of jobs — so some of that value should be recycled to cushion the disruption.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:09:08",
   "quote": "the whole valuation that AI is predicated on is job disruption",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Priestley",
   "claim": "Implementing AI across his own group of small businesses led to hiring more people, not fewer — entry-level staff become more valuable when augmented.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "small business",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:02:49",
   "quote": "We've implemented AI in all of them. And as a result, we've hired people.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Priestley",
   "claim": "If AI agents let one person do everything, the effect is massively deflationary and humans will invent new jobs for each other, as they always have.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:17:25",
   "quote": "what would happen in that situation is you would have a massive deflationary effect",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Priestley",
   "claim": "A modest entrepreneurial uplift — 100,000 entrepreneurs each hiring 10 people — would create a million jobs and restore optionality.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "small business",
    "jobs",
    "UK"
   ],
   "timestamp": "44:56",
   "quote": "if we had 100,000 entrepreneurs who were all hiring 10 people, we'd have a million jobs and we'd have 100,000 options for people with jobs",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Steven Bartlett",
   "claim": "AI differs from calculators and computers because it arrives into a technological economy with instant global scale, making the disruption much faster.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:05:47",
   "quote": "maybe the difference between calculators or computers versus this, is AI is coming into a technological economy and it is coming in with instant scale",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "Ordinary people should brace for tougher times ahead and acquire useful, practical (mechanical, engineering, science) skills.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "economy",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:34:30",
   "quote": "I think they have to brace themselves for tougher times ahead than they would have expected.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "claim": "Broad job displacement will arrive suddenly rather than gradually, because of intelligence-explosion / recursive-self-improvement dynamics.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "jobs",
    "recursive self-improvement"
   ],
   "timestamp": "49:41",
   "quote": "I think it'll be sudden because of the intelligence explosion dynamics, or recursive self-improvement dynamics.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "claim": "Once superintelligence is reached, which jobs remain is a political question, not a technical one, since technically all jobs could be automated.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "52:00",
   "quote": "I think that's actually a political question, not a technical question.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "claim": "The 'AI will create many new unforeseeable jobs' argument fails, because past automation was narrow while superintelligence automates everything.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "56:58",
   "quote": "The problem with that is that past technological advancements have been more narrow.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "claim": "Waiting to regulate until most people have lost their jobs is already too late, because the companies will likely already have superintelligence by then.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "AI regulation",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:03:16",
   "quote": "if you wait until most people have lost their jobs to regulate the AI companies, that's already too late, because they will probably already have super intelligent AI by then",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "claim": "Losing jobs threatens not just income but political power, because economic contribution is a source of leverage over governments.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:35:41",
   "quote": "when people lose their jobs, they're not just threatened with loss of income, they're also threatened with loss of political power.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Elon Musk",
   "reported_by": "Steven Bartlett",
   "claim": "AI is bringing an 'age of abundance' in which working becomes a choice rather than a necessity.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.6,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:05:24",
   "quote": "when Elon says that working will be a choice",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "holder": "Nick Hanauer",
   "prediction": "AI job loss may prove less apocalyptic than currently feared, because firms will keep AI-augmented workers to outcompete rivals, as happened with calculators and computers.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:04:36",
   "quote": "the job loss may not be as apocalyptic as it now feels like it may be",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "prediction": "The AI transition will probably be over before his young children reach working age, so he doesn't think they'll ever join the workforce.",
   "timeframe": "before his children reach working age (~2038)",
   "subjects": [
    "superintelligence",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:08:30",
   "quote": "I think that one way or another, this will probably all be over by the time they're old enough to join the workforce. So I don't think they'll ever join the workforce.",
   "due": "2038-01-01",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
   "prediction": "In the AI 2027 scenario, mass unemployment does not arrive until 2028 or 2029, after superintelligence already exists.",
   "timeframe": "2028-2029",
   "subjects": [
    "jobs"
   ],
   "timestamp": "58:24",
   "quote": "the mass unemployment doesn't happen until 2028 or 2029 after they already have superintelligence.",
   "due": "2029-12-31",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  }
 ],
 "facts": [
  {
   "statement": "70% of all jobs created are created by small businesses, not governments or big companies.",
   "subjects": [
    "small business",
    "jobs"
   ],
   "value": "70%",
   "timestamp": "44:56",
   "quote": "70% of all jobs that get created are created by small businesses",
   "source": "Daniel Priestley",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate",
   "published_at": "2026-06-08"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Current unemployment cited as about 5% in the UK and 4.2% in the US.",
   "subjects": [
    "jobs"
   ],
   "value": "UK ~5%, US ~4.2%",
   "timestamp": "58:00",
   "quote": "We're at about 5% unemployment. The US is at 4.2% unemployment.",
   "source": "Steven Bartlett",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go",
   "published_at": "2026-07-13"
  }
 ],
 "first_seen": "2026-06-08",
 "last_seen": "2026-07-13"
}