{ "name": "United States", "type": "place", "episodes": [ "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-23-vlad-barbalat-investing-120-billion-in-permanent-capital", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-26-most-replayed-moment-sleep-expert-on-the-truth-about-melaton", "all-in-2026-06-29-nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fadi", "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-10-most-replayed-moment-are-you-really-gluten-intolerant-it-cou", "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c" ], "claims": [ { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Behind closed doors the US and China are figuring out how to divide up the world into a bipolar construction.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "5:53", "quote": "I think behind closed doors, they're probably just figuring out how to divide the pie.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Whether the US and China share in a growing pie or fight over a static one determines whether they avoid the Thucydides-trap conflict.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "3:11", "quote": "Is there a way we can chart an economic and cooperative path that doesn't involve eating each other and involves sharing in a bigger pie?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "As both the US and China build out their own fabs, Taiwan may matter much less from a security and economic standpoint.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "21:08", "quote": "as they build out their own semiconductor capital equipment systems and their own fabs, does Taiwan really matter?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Letting technology diffuse globally raises everyone's standard of living and lowers the probability of conflict; restricting it to one side increases it.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "23:22", "quote": "if you let technology diffuse and proliferate, everyone benefits and conflict indices go down.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "claim": "A capitalist democracy cannot be sustained if the top 1% controls 45-50% of income while the bottom 50% shares 5%.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "United States", "inequality", "capitalism" ], "timestamp": "3:31", "quote": "you cannot sustain a capitalist democracy if the top 1% controls 45 or 50% of income and the bottom 50% shares five", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "claim": "The pitchforks are already here: the Trump administration is a canonical example of a society beginning to tear itself apart from inequality.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Donald Trump", "United States", "inequality" ], "timestamp": "6:38", "quote": "I believe that the Pitchforks are here. I think the Trump administration is one of the canonical examples of a society beginning to tear itself apart.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "claim": "The US tax system's loopholes let the richest citizens pay half the effective rate of ordinary people, which is table stakes to fix but not the core problem.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "United States", "tax", "inequality" ], "timestamp": "12:29", "quote": "the American tax system is riddled with loopholes that allow the richest citizens to pay taxes at a rate of one-half of what ordinary people pay", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "claim": "Wages, not taxes, are the core problem: trillions per year that used to be ordinary Americans' wages now flow to the richest.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "wages", "United States", "middle class" ], "timestamp": "12:29", "quote": "But the bigger problem is wages, and if you want to get the economy back on track, you have to address that problem.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "claim": "Erosion of the US overtime threshold let employers turn three 40-hour jobs into two 60-hour jobs at massive scale, removing roughly 10 million jobs from the workforce.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "wages", "minimum wage" ], "timestamp": "21:54", "quote": "people like me, at the scale of tens of millions, have turned three 40-hour-a-week jobs into two 60-hour-a-week jobs and pocketed the difference", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Steven Bartlett", "claim": "Even after subtracting healthcare costs, the average American worker takes home significantly more disposable income than the average UK worker.", "stance": "fact_cited", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "UK", "wages" ], "timestamp": "26:26", "quote": "The bottom line is the gap in base salaries and tax rates is simply too large for UK free health care to close. The US wins on pure disposable income per person.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Vlad Barbalat", "claim": "The current geopolitical shift is a reset of how Pax Americana governs, not a reset away from American power; the world still needs America.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "Pax Americana" ], "timestamp": "43:01", "quote": "I don't think it's a reset away from American power in the world, at least on a relative basis. The world continues to need America.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-23-vlad-barbalat-investing-120-billion-in-permanent-capital", "published_at": "2026-06-23" }, { "holder": "Vlad Barbalat", "claim": "The breakdown of the global order doesn't much affect investing if you're focused on the US; what matters is the changing economic architecture.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "geopolitics", "United States" ], "timestamp": "43:01", "quote": "That in itself, I don't think, affects investing if you're focused in the US so much. What does clearly matter is that the economic architecture is changing.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-23-vlad-barbalat-investing-120-billion-in-permanent-capital", "published_at": "2026-06-23" }, { "holder": "Vlad Barbalat", "claim": "The level of agency available to a US citizen or resident is unparalleled anywhere else in the world.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States" ], "timestamp": "27:31", "quote": "the level of agency you have as a citizen of the US or as a resident of the US is unparalleled to anywhere else in the world.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-23-vlad-barbalat-investing-120-billion-in-permanent-capital", "published_at": "2026-06-23" }, { "holder": "Patrick O'Shaughnessy", "claim": "The people who love America most are often immigrants who weren't born there and saw another system first.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "United States", "immigrants" ], "timestamp": "27:00", "quote": "the people that love America most often weren't born here. They're immigrants.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-23-vlad-barbalat-investing-120-billion-in-permanent-capital", "published_at": "2026-06-23" }, { "holder": "Jeremy Grantham", "claim": "Wealth inequality is the biggest economic problem.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "wealth inequality", "United States" ], "timestamp": "53:23", "quote": "I think that's the biggest economic problem.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "holder": "Jeremy Grantham", "claim": "The US is far more toxic than the EU because it puts corporations first, and it must start banning these chemicals.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "endocrine disruptors" ], "timestamp": "1:22:05", "quote": "If the US wants to put the corporations first, they will have shorter lives.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "holder": "Jeremy Grantham", "claim": "The US social contract is dissolving, making it a worse place to live than countries like Denmark, Japan, Sweden or Germany.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "United States", "social contract" ], "timestamp": "1:36:18", "quote": "It holds out too much chance that the social contract is dissolving.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Importing migrants without assimilation, combined with Marxist leaders, will make the American system resemble the countries the migrants came from.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "United States", "DSA" ], "timestamp": "9:28", "quote": "if you import massive numbers of migrants, don't assimilate them into our system, and then you have these Marxist leaders, you're going to end up with the American system coming to resemble the countries from which this mass migration came.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The US should deeply consider an under-16 social media ban as Canada, the UK, and Australia have done.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "social media ban", "United States" ], "timestamp": "22:49", "quote": "I think we need to deeply consider it across the rest of the United States.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "If the DSA gains total control of cities and drives out productive people, there may be no recovery for the United States.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "United States", "DSA" ], "timestamp": "30:33", "quote": "if they get total control of some of these cities and drive out everyone who is productive, I don't know how you come back.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "America is awesome and the only vaguely successful multicultural society on Earth, and schools should stop teaching kids to be ashamed of it.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States" ], "timestamp": "40:43", "quote": "America is awesome. And we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The US is hobbling itself in the AI race and will lose if it keeps doing so.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI" ], "timestamp": "58:16", "quote": "We are going to lose if we keep doing this stuff to ourselves.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The US must be pro-export because China will reach the global market within one or two years, costing us the chance to own it.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "59:52", "quote": "we have to be pro-export because China is going to be there within one or two years", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Nate Silver", "claim": "The United States' inability to count votes within hours like most countries is a sign of atrophy of the efficacy of the system.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States", "California" ], "timestamp": "19:23", "quote": "the fact that the United States, the technological leader of the world, and the supposed like beacron of democracy can't do that, I think is a sign of atrophy of the efficacy of the system", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-29-nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fadi", "published_at": "2026-06-29" }, { "holder": "Nate Silver", "claim": "Almost every election now is a change election, and the US may ping-pong between parties for many cycles, like the UK's revolving prime ministers.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "change elections", "United States", "United Kingdom" ], "timestamp": "29:23", "quote": "Almost every election now is a change election.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-29-nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fadi", "published_at": "2026-06-29" }, { "holder": "Nate Silver", "claim": "People focus too much on national politics and not enough on state and local races, where executive power actually lives and the next generation of candidates is picked.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "state politics", "United States" ], "timestamp": "54:09", "quote": "I think people probably focus too much on the national picture and not enough on what happens at the state level where people actually have executive power", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-29-nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fadi", "published_at": "2026-06-29" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Americans should never underestimate Xi Jinping.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.95, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "United States" ], "timestamp": "13:18", "quote": "never underestimate Xi Jinping, never ever underestimate him.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Chinese Communist Party", "reported_by": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "The CCP's mainstream view is captured by the slogan 'the rise of the East and the decline of the West' — a euphemism for China overtaking the United States.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Chinese Communist Party", "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:22:22", "quote": "which is the rise of the East and the decline of the West", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "American policy thinking too often lets hope substitute for analysis about China's slowdown — the problem is not fixed.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:11:37", "quote": "Sometimes hope becomes a substitute for analysis and strategy in this country", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Ezra Klein", "claim": "The US keeps Chinese electric vehicles out because they are too good, not because they are bad — a reversal of the old copying-and-IP-theft frame.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "electric vehicles" ], "timestamp": "1:13:34", "quote": "America is keeping Chinese electric vehicles out, not because they're bad cars, it's because they're such good cars.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Tariffs are a perfectly logical response to Chinese industrial policy, because the alternative is letting China dominate every industrial sector.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:17:09", "quote": "It is a perfectly logical response to the challenge which China's industrial policy, which exists on the basis of massive industrial subsidies poses.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Ezra Klein", "claim": "China's dominance in rare earths and magnets was so complete that it could break Trump's tariff policy and trade war simply by threatening US access.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China", "United States", "rare earths" ], "timestamp": "1:17:42", "quote": "they were so dominant in it that they were able to break Trump's tariff policy, break his trade war by simply threatening to remove our access to their rare earths and magnets", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Xi Jinping", "reported_by": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Xi sees the United States as the only country with the scale to stand in the way of China's ambition, and as an alternative ideational model.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:20:17", "quote": "His view of America is that it's the only country in the world potentially standing in the way of his national, political, and economic, and geopolitical ambition.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "The right US-China framework is 'managed strategic competition' — accept the competition and manage it, because unmanaged competition ends in crisis, conflict and war.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "managed strategic competition" ], "timestamp": "1:29:32", "quote": "what I call managed strategic competition. Except the reality of the competition and manage it, it's far better than unmanaged strategic competition, which can end in crisis, conflict and war.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Ezra Klein", "claim": "2028 conditions — a divisive US election year, low appetite for foreign adventurism after the Iran war, and weak public commitment to Taiwan — could look to Beijing like a moment of opportunity.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "United States", "Taiwan", "Xi Jinping" ], "timestamp": "1:36:38", "quote": "There is going to be not a lot of appetite among the American people for foreign adventurism, particularly after the Iran War proved something of a disaster.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "American commitment to Taiwan is hard-headed rather than sentimental: a Chinese takeover would end global belief in US strategic reliability and could trigger Japanese and Korean nuclearisation.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "United States", "Japan" ], "timestamp": "1:40:35", "quote": "It becomes very much the point at which the notion of Pax Americana goes, disappears in the collective consciousness of allies around the world.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "The wisest and cheapest Taiwan policy is sustained deterrence, holding the status quo and deferring the problem to future generations.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:44:00", "quote": "The wise policy is in fact, the least expensive and most effective, sustain deterrence.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Mark Cuban", "claim": "Whoever controls a platform's social-media algorithm effectively controls US elections, because the algorithm shapes what political content people see and reinforces their existing views.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "politics", "United States" ], "timestamp": "26:23", "quote": "Whoever controls the algorithm controls the election in many cases.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "holder": "Robert Pape", "claim": "A US attempt to hold occupied Iranian territory would likely cost hundreds of American lives over a period of weeks.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "United States", "Iran" ], "timestamp": "1:00:01", "quote": "You're talking about hundreds dead over a period of at least weeks.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Tucker Carlson", "claim": "The United States is effectively at war with Russia, because US intelligence is being used to target Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "United States", "Russia", "Ukraine" ], "timestamp": "0:00", "quote": "and make no mistake, the United States is at war with Russia", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Tucker Carlson", "claim": "The Iran war serves Israeli rather than American interests, as the Israeli finance minister's remarks make unusually explicit.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Israel", "United States", "Iran" ], "timestamp": "30:58", "quote": "Yes, this is for Israel, this war is for Israel.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "Carlson understated the crisis: the current path leads to complete disaster, and the people driving it do not do consequences.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "energy", "United States" ], "timestamp": "37:14", "quote": "if anything, you understated it. Energy is life, energy is our economy. The path we're on is headed for complete disaster at this point in time.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "American energy independence is an artifact of redefining petroleum to include natural gas liquids; the US remains a net importer of crude oil and cannot insulate itself from world prices.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "United States", "energy" ], "timestamp": "42:18", "quote": "We're still a net importer of crude oil.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "Banning petroleum exports to keep supply at home would be severely destabilising, comparable to the 2022 freezing of Russian sovereign reserves in its effect on trust.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "United States", "energy" ], "timestamp": "44:46", "quote": "And so I just think that would be, it would be very destabilizing would be the kindest term I could put it.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "Because the quoted price is being held below the market-clearing level, demand stays too high and physical inventories are being drawn down toward dangerous minimums.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "oil markets", "United States" ], "timestamp": "51:36", "quote": "Right now, we're holding the price lower than actual supplies, right? So what's happening is demand is too high.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "The escalation against Russian refineries and shipping appears designed to provoke a reaction, and is dangerous given Russia's widened nuclear doctrine.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Russia", "Ukraine", "United States" ], "timestamp": "56:08", "quote": "It seems to be to provoke a reaction.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "Policymakers do not understand that the economy is undergirded by energy; they treat it as narrative and abstraction.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "energy" ], "timestamp": "56:08", "quote": "I don't think they understand the relationship between how an economy is undergirded by energy.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "China has a comprehensive, thoughtful national energy policy — including nuclear and good relations with suppliers — that the United States lacks.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China", "United States", "energy" ], "timestamp": "1:03:56", "quote": "And their energy policy, actually, when I read it, I weep because I wish my country had one.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Tucker Carlson", "claim": "The 1973 oil shock was the price America paid for backing Israel in the Yom Kippur War, and the current crisis is a tenfold replay of the same dynamic.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Israel", "United States", "OPEC" ], "timestamp": "1:12:18", "quote": "We paid a huge price in 1973 for our support for Israel, which was not to our strategic benefit.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "AI data centres consume enormous energy while producing nothing physical, and the absence of a nuclear build-out shows the AI programme is not serious about its own energy requirements.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "artificial intelligence", "energy", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:18:38", "quote": "You would know that they were serious about this if they were slapping in small modular nukes and nuclear plants all over the place, because that's the answer for that.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "Either the people running this policy are rankly incompetent or they are malevolent — there is no third reading he can find.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "United States", "Donald Trump" ], "timestamp": "1:21:34", "quote": "it's either really rank and competence, or it's malevolence.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Tucker Carlson", "claim": "Accepting that markets are fake is the hardest realisation for an American, harder than other lost illusions, because supply and demand seemed like a law of nature.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "oil markets", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:26:52", "quote": "it's really hard as an American to accept the fact that markets, and I think I speak for many when I say this, are fake.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "claim": "The US, UK, and a number of other countries are late in the roughly 80-year big cycle, in a decline phase marked by over-indebtedness and loss of power.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States", "United Kingdom", "the Big Cycle" ], "timestamp": "1:13:49", "quote": "When we say that the US, the UK, a number of other countries are later in that cycle when there's the loss of the things that we've been talking about, over indebtedness, more over indebtedness, the loss of power.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "claim": "The Iran war was a big strategic mistake for the United States, and it exposed a vulnerability in America's global power that had not previously been apparent.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Iran", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:26:10", "quote": "Oh, yeah, it was a big mistake. And also, what it did is it shone a light on the vulnerability.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "claim": "Because the US public does not want to fight a war over the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will effectively stop showing up as a counterbalancing military power in Asia.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:20:51", "quote": "the United States will not show up in Asia.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "claim": "What's needed to break the polarization/debt spiral is a strong political middle, since extremes at war with each other only make things worse.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.55, "subjects": [ "United States", "United Kingdom" ], "timestamp": "1:05:48", "quote": "I think what's needed is a strong middle.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "If China's compute stock really is that far behind by the time automated research arrives, US export controls will have been a notable policy success.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Export controls", "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "38:37", "quote": "So, if that ends up being the case, that would have worked. I think that's actually a notable success.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "The US will be fine fiscally because it can tax the data centers, provided they are built in America.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "United States", "AI capex" ], "timestamp": "47:27", "quote": "I think the US will be fine at the end of the day, because if the data centers are built in America, we can fundamentally just tax the data centers.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" } ], "predictions": [ { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "prediction": "If the post-1980 concentration of US income continues for another 30 years (from his ~2008 spreadsheet exercise), the result is revolution.", "timeframe": "~30 years from 2008 (conditional on trend continuing)", "subjects": [ "United States", "inequality" ], "timestamp": "3:31", "quote": "what happens if this trend continues for another 30 years? And the answer is, revolution", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Jeremy Grantham", "prediction": "Within 50 years the life-expectancy gap between the US and Sweden will widen to eight or ten years.", "timeframe": "in 50 years (~2076)", "subjects": [ "United States", "Sweden" ], "timestamp": "1:22:05", "quote": "my estate would be willing to bet you that in 50 years, it will be eight or 10", "due": "2076-06-25", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "China will reach the global AI market within one or two years, and the US will regret not exporting to own it first.", "timeframe": "within one or two years", "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "59:52", "quote": "we have to be pro-export because China is going to be there within one or two years", "due": "2028-06-26", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "prediction": "The US will lose the AI race if it keeps imposing self-inflicted restrictions on its own companies.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI" ], "timestamp": "58:16", "quote": "We are going to lose if we keep doing this stuff to ourselves.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "prediction": "If a federal bailout of California's liabilities occurs, red states will question remaining in the union, precipitating a genuine crisis of the union in the years ahead.", "timeframe": "the years ahead", "subjects": [ "California", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:28:44", "quote": "And that is where I think you face a crisis of the union in the years ahead.", "due": "2036-07-03", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "prediction": "Xi Jinping could miscalculate over Taiwan in 2028, when Taiwan's January presidential election, his own fresh party mandate and the US presidential election coincide.", "timeframe": "2028", "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "Taiwan", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:37:37", "quote": "I'm worried very much that Xi Jinping could miscalculate in 2028", "due": "2028-12-31", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "By 2050 the United States will be short 2.5 Californias' worth of energy.", "timeframe": "by 2050", "subjects": [ "energy deficit", "United States" ], "timestamp": "56:41", "quote": "the United States of America will be two and a half California's worth of energy in deficit.", "due": "2050-01-01", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "Mark Cuban", "prediction": "US politics will return to 'normalcy' after the upcoming midterms and the next presidential election.", "timeframe": "after the next presidential election", "subjects": [ "politics", "United States" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "I think as we get past this next, the midterms and the next presidential election, I think we'll get back to normalcy.", "due": "2029-01-20", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "holder": "Mark Cuban", "prediction": "If the sitting president tries to run for a third term, Cuban says he will run for president himself.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "politics", "United States" ], "timestamp": "30:56", "quote": "Well, if he decides to run for a third term, then I'll run.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "holder": "Robert Pape", "prediction": "There is roughly a 70% chance the US carries out a limited ground operation in Iran, likely within the next month and possibly by the end of this week.", "timeframe": "within the next month, possibly by the end of this week (as of 2026-07-23)", "subjects": [ "United States", "Iran" ], "timestamp": "1:06:10", "quote": "I think probably within the next month, maybe even shorter than that. It could even be by the end of this week.", "due": "2026-08-23", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "prediction": "Gasoline will reach $6 a gallon before Labor Day or later this year.", "timeframe": "before Labor Day / within 2026", "subjects": [ "energy", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:06:49", "quote": "Yeah, I really do. So I'm tracking these every week.", "due": "2026-12-31", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "prediction": "Inventories will be run down to scary minimums and then government rationing will be attempted.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "United States", "energy" ], "timestamp": "51:36", "quote": "But I think this is where this is going, is we're actually just going to sail into absolute minimum, and then the crisis comes out, and I'm starting to wonder if that hasn't been the point all along.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "prediction": "The realisation of scarcity will arrive slowly and then all at once, ending in a mad scramble as inventories collapse.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "energy", "United States" ], "timestamp": "1:06:49", "quote": "I think we're going to slowly, people are going to start waking up that there's a real crisis here.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "prediction": "The most likely beneficial outcome of the current world-order transition is a more regional arrangement, with the US and China each dominant in their own region rather than one global superpower.", "timeframe": "unspecified — over the course of the current world-order transition", "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:15:02", "quote": "China and I think the United States, I think the most likely beneficial outcome is that it becomes more regional, okay?", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" } ], "facts": [ { "statement": "The TSMC fab in Arizona is running and printing chips.", "subjects": [ "TSMC", "United States" ], "timestamp": "21:08", "quote": "the TSMC facility in Arizona is running", "source": "David Friedberg", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "Per IRS tax tables, the top 1% of Americans' share of national income grew from ~8.5% in 1980 to ~22% by 2007, while the bottom 50%'s share fell from ~18% to ~12%.", "subjects": [ "United States", "inequality" ], "value": "top 1%: 8.5% to 22% (1980-2007); bottom 50%: 18% to 12%", "timestamp": "3:31", "quote": "in 1980, the top 1% of Americans shared about 8.5% of national income", "source": "Nick Hanauer", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "The median full-time US worker earns about $60,000/year; had they maintained their 1975 share of the economy they would earn close to $120,000.", "subjects": [ "United States", "wages" ], "value": "$60,000 vs ~$120,000", "timestamp": "12:29", "quote": "the median full-time worker today earns in the range of $60,000 a year", "source": "Nick Hanauer", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "The US federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, or $2.13 plus tips — a third of the UK's.", "subjects": [ "United States", "minimum wage" ], "value": "$7.25/hr ($2.13 tipped)", "timestamp": "25:32", "quote": "The minimum wage in the United States is $7.25 an hour or $2.13 plus tips.", "source": "Nick Hanauer", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "Average US salary is around $74,000 vs roughly $50,000 in the UK; US employees pay about $6,000-8,000/year in health premiums and out-of-pocket costs.", "subjects": [ "United States", "UK", "wages" ], "value": "$74,000 vs $50,000", "timestamp": "26:26", "quote": "The average US salary is around $74,000, the average UK salary is around roughly $50,000.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "The US top 1% holds over 30% of national wealth vs roughly 20% in the UK, and the US ranks as the most unequal G7 nation.", "subjects": [ "United States", "UK", "inequality" ], "value": ">30% vs ~20% of wealth", "timestamp": "41:06", "quote": "The US top 1% holds over 30% of the nation's wealth compared to roughly 20% in the UK.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "The US has $37 trillion of national debt.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "$37 trillion", "timestamp": "1:21:36", "quote": "We have $37 trillion of debt", "source": "Nick Hanauer", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "US GDP growth ran 4-4.5% for decades (1940s-60s), then fell to 3% and now 2% after neoliberal policy took hold in 1975, per Hanauer.", "subjects": [ "United States", "neoliberalism" ], "value": "4-4.5% to 2%", "timestamp": "1:35:49", "quote": "GDP growth rates in the United States were four, four and a half percent for decades, 40, 50, 60s", "source": "Nick Hanauer", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "UK income tax hits a ~60-62% effective marginal rate at £100,000 before settling at 45%, while the US top rate doesn't start until about $700,000.", "subjects": [ "UK", "United States", "tax" ], "value": "60-62% at £100k vs top rate at $700k", "timestamp": "1:49:22", "quote": "the US, you hit the top rate of income tax when you hit $700,000", "source": "Daniel Priestley", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "America's 250th birthday is being celebrated this summer.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "250th", "timestamp": "27:31", "quote": "we're going to celebrate America's 250th birthday this summer.", "source": "Vlad Barbalat", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-23-vlad-barbalat-investing-120-billion-in-permanent-capital", "published_at": "2026-06-23" }, { "statement": "Since about 1975 essentially all US wealth gains have gone to the top 10%, much of it to the top 0.01%.", "subjects": [ "wealth inequality", "United States" ], "value": "top 10% / top 0.01%", "timestamp": "53:23", "quote": "Since about 1975, all of the wealth worth talking about has gone to the top 10%", "source": "Jeremy Grantham", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "The richest 1% of Americans control 31% of national wealth; the bottom 50% share just 2.5%.", "subjects": [ "wealth inequality", "United States" ], "value": "31% vs 2.5%", "timestamp": "54:23", "quote": "The richest 1% of Americans control 31% of the nation's entire wealth.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "Of ~10,000 chemicals in cosmetics, the EU has banned about 1,500, Canada 550, and the US only 12.", "subjects": [ "European Union", "United States" ], "value": "EU 1500 / Canada 550 / US 12", "timestamp": "1:22:05", "quote": "Canada has banned 550 and the US has banned 12", "source": "Jeremy Grantham", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "The US-Sweden life-expectancy gap has widened from two years to six years over 70 years.", "subjects": [ "United States", "Sweden" ], "value": "2 → 6 years", "timestamp": "1:22:05", "quote": "the life expectancy difference between the US and Sweden has gone from two years to six years in the last 70 years?", "source": "Jeremy Grantham", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "Maternal mortality per 100,000 births: UK 5, Germany 4, Sweden 2.1, Norway ~0, versus ~20 in the US overall.", "subjects": [ "United States", "Sweden" ], "value": "Sweden 2.1, Norway 0 vs US ~20 per 100k", "timestamp": "1:37:44", "quote": "In Germany, it's four. In Sweden, it's 2.1. In Norway, it's zero.", "source": "Jeremy Grantham", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "The US permits 85 agricultural pesticides that are banned in the EU, China and Brazil.", "subjects": [ "pesticides", "United States" ], "value": "85 pesticides", "timestamp": "1:23:24", "quote": "the US currently permits the use of 85 agricultural pesticides that are completely banned in the EU, China, and Brazil.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "A US Geological Survey found at least 45% of US tap water is contaminated with PFAs.", "subjects": [ "endocrine disruptors", "United States" ], "value": "45%", "timestamp": "1:24:21", "quote": "at least 45% of all US tap water is contaminated with PFAs", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here", "published_at": "2026-06-25" }, { "statement": "A study found a 503% increase in melatonin poisoning overdose hospital admissions in the US over the past 10 years.", "subjects": [ "melatonin", "United States" ], "value": "503% increase", "timestamp": "1:35", "quote": "there has been a 503% increase in poisonous overdose admissions to hospitals of melatonin in the past 10 years.", "source": "Matthew Walker", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-26-most-replayed-moment-sleep-expert-on-the-truth-about-melaton", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "Most states set a 0.5% recount threshold, and recounts almost never overturn margins larger than about 0.05%.", "subjects": [ "recounts", "United States" ], "value": "0.5% threshold; >0.05% almost never overturned", "timestamp": "19:23", "quote": "you have an 0.5% recount threshold in most states. Almost never have you had a margin larger than 0.05% or so overturned.", "source": "Nate Silver", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-29-nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fadi", "published_at": "2026-06-29" }, { "statement": "In the United States, wheat is allowed to be sprayed with glyphosate (Roundup, a weed killer) to dry it out quickly before shipping.", "subjects": [ "glyphosate", "wheat", "United States" ], "timestamp": "10:05", "quote": "they allow the wheat to be sprayed with glyphosate, which is round up. It's a weed killer.", "source": "Will Bulsiewicz", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-10-most-replayed-moment-are-you-really-gluten-intolerant-it-cou", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "statement": "In the United States, from 1970 to 2010, ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease cases increased by up to 55%.", "subjects": [ "inflammatory bowel disease", "ulcerative colitis", "Crohn's disease", "United States" ], "value": "up to 55% (1970-2010)", "timestamp": "19:19", "quote": "within the United States, over the course of 40 years, from 1970 to 2010, all sort of colitis and Crohn's disease cases were increasing by up to 55%.", "source": "Will Bulsiewicz", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-10-most-replayed-moment-are-you-really-gluten-intolerant-it-cou", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "statement": "China stopped publishing its comprehensive-national-power comparisons for external audiences about twelve years ago.", "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "value": "~12 years ago", "timestamp": "1:22:22", "quote": "Interestingly, they stopped publishing this stuff for the rest of the world to see what their conclusions were about 12 years ago.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "Official US strategy toward China shifted from strategic engagement to strategic competition in the National Security Strategy written under HR McMaster, around December 2017.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "value": "December 2017", "timestamp": "1:25:20", "quote": "when the official American strategy towards China changed from strategic engagement to strategic competition", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "The recent Beijing summit produced a new Chinese-proposed organising principle called Constructive Strategic Stability, which the White House accepted subject to fairness and reciprocity.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "Donald Trump" ], "timestamp": "1:25:55", "quote": "where we now have a different organizing principle announced for the first time, this time by the Chinese, called Constructive Strategic Stability.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "Talks on regulating the most destabilising forms of AI emerged from the US Treasury secretary's conversations with his Chinese counterpart at the summit.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI governance" ], "timestamp": "1:25:55", "quote": "which is what came out of Scott Besson's conversations with his counterpart, Hurley Fung.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "The Taiwan Relations Act was framed by Congress in 1979 at the time of US diplomatic recognition of the mainland, and functions as a de facto security guarantee.", "subjects": [ "Taiwan Relations Act", "Taiwan", "United States" ], "value": "1979", "timestamp": "1:40:35", "quote": "it was the Congress that framed the Taiwan Relations Act back in 1979", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "When the CHIPS Act started, the US built about 12% of leading-edge chips; today that figure is more like 18%.", "subjects": [ "CHIPS Act", "United States", "semiconductors" ], "value": "US leading-edge share ~12% -> ~18%", "timestamp": "15:13", "quote": "the US was building about 12% of leading edge. Today that number is more like 18%.", "source": "Pat Gelsinger", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "published_at": "2026-07-15" }, { "statement": "Global energy capacity is expanding 4-5% while US energy capacity grew about 1% per year for roughly a decade.", "subjects": [ "AI buildout", "United States" ], "value": "global energy +4-5%; US +1%/yr for a decade", "timestamp": "18:41", "quote": "Energy capacity in the world is expanding 4-5 percent. In the US, we had a decade at 1 percent.", "source": "Pat Gelsinger", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "published_at": "2026-07-15" }, { "statement": "The US has concentrated roughly 8,000-9,000 ground troops (4,500-5,000 Marines plus ~4,000 from the 82nd Airborne) with naval forces in the Gulf of Oman.", "subjects": [ "United States", "Gulf of Oman" ], "value": "~8,000-9,000 troops (4,500-5,000 Marines + ~4,000 82nd Airborne)", "timestamp": "55:17", "quote": "So we have somewhere around 4,500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around 4,000 or so troops from the 82nd Airborne.", "source": "Robert Pape", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "The daily cost of the Iran war to the US is estimated at around $2 billion a day.", "subjects": [ "Iran War", "United States" ], "value": "~$2B/day", "timestamp": "1:26:39", "quote": "It's estimated that the daily cost of this war for America is around $2 billion a day.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "Roughly 172 million barrels have been taken out of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve since the war began.", "subjects": [ "Strategic Petroleum Reserve", "United States" ], "value": "~172 million barrels", "timestamp": "14:49", "quote": "Something like 172 million barrels taken out of the SPR since this war began.", "source": "Tucker Carlson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "The war began on February 28th with a decapitation strike that killed Iran's supreme religious leader.", "subjects": [ "Iran", "United States" ], "value": "February 28th", "timestamp": "53:48", "quote": "February 28th, we conduct this decapitation strike, right?", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "Heating oil is up 84% from a year ago, and New York Harbor diesel hit an all-time high last week.", "subjects": [ "energy", "United States" ], "value": "+84% year-on-year", "timestamp": "1:05:46", "quote": "Heating oil is up 84% from this time last year.", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 21% to break the second wave of 1970s inflation.", "subjects": [ "Federal Reserve", "United States" ], "value": "21% interest rates", "timestamp": "1:08:35", "quote": "And it took Paul Volcker coming out and ramming interest rates to 21% in order to pinch that second hump of inflation.", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "US federal debt stands at $39 trillion with a structural deficit of two to three trillion a year for the next decade, and derivatives outstanding of one to two quadrillion.", "subjects": [ "United States", "derivatives" ], "value": "$39tn debt; $2–3tn/yr deficit; 1–2 quadrillion derivatives", "timestamp": "1:13:14", "quote": "The United States in 1973 had some debt, not $39 trillion of debt, right? With a structural deficit of two to three trillion per year for the next 10 years, right?", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "It took until 1990 for the US to accumulate its first $3.5 trillion of federal debt; the same amount was added in the last twelve months.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "$3.5tn added in 12 months", "timestamp": "1:44:19", "quote": "it took all the way to 1990 before we accumulated our first $3.5 trillion of federal debt", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "The federal government pays roughly $1.2 trillion a year in interest, and the Fed has printed about $200 billion over the last six months.", "subjects": [ "Federal Reserve", "United States" ], "value": "$1.2tn interest; $200bn printed", "timestamp": "1:44:19", "quote": "The Fed's already printing money right now, 200 billion over the last six months.", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "US gold exports hit an all-time record in January, February and March — roughly 10 to 11 million ounces, making gold the country's number one export ahead of oil.", "subjects": [ "gold", "United States" ], "value": "10–11 million ounces", "timestamp": "1:39:16", "quote": "for January and February and for March, we've never exported more gold ever in our history.", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "Gold ownership was illegal for US citizens from 1933 to 1973, and a WikiLeaks cable shows officials proposed gold futures explicitly to overwhelm the physical price and diminish the desire to hoard.", "subjects": [ "gold", "United States" ], "value": "illegal 1933–1973", "timestamp": "1:42:17", "quote": "So gold was illegal from 1933 to 1973, right?", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "The US ran a $100 billion trade deficit last month.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "$100 billion", "timestamp": "42:18", "quote": "a $100 billion last month trade deficit", "source": "Chris Martenson", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "statement": "Roughly 61% of US adults own stock in some form (mostly indirectly via retirement plans), while only 20% directly own individual stocks or shares.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "61% own stock (any form); 20% direct ownership", "timestamp": "44:16", "quote": "Roughly 61% of US adults own stock in some form, and most of them hold it indirectly through their retirement plan. Only 20% of Americans directly own individual stocks or shares through a brokerage account.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "statement": "The top 10% of US households hold almost 90% of all stock.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "top 10% of households hold ~90% of stock", "timestamp": "44:16", "quote": "The top 10% of households hold almost 90% of the stock.", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "statement": "In Connecticut, the second-richest US state on a per capita basis, 22% of high school students have either dropped out or are failing, with absentee rates above 25%.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "22% of CT high schoolers dropped out/failing; >25% absentee rate", "timestamp": "55:15", "quote": "22% of the high school students have either dropped out of high school or are failing with absentee rates of greater than 25%.", "source": "Ray Dalio", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "statement": "In Connecticut, the state's incarceration bill has grown larger than its education budget.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "timestamp": "55:15", "quote": "the bill for incarcerations has become larger than the education budget.", "source": "Ray Dalio", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "statement": "AI infrastructure accounted for most of America's GDP growth last year.", "subjects": [ "United States", "AI capex" ], "timestamp": "0:36", "quote": "most of GDP growth in America was just AI infrastructure", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "About 70% of AI data-center watts are deployed in America, versus under 10% in China.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI compute" ], "value": "US ~70% / China <10%", "timestamp": "34:34", "quote": "today, 70 percent of watts are being deployed in America", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "In 2022 the US was adding 45-50% of world compute and China 30-35%, before the export-control regime.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "Export controls" ], "value": "US 45-50% / China 30-35% (2022)", "timestamp": "34:34", "quote": "the US was adding about 45-50 percent of the world's compute. China was adding about 30-35 percent of the world's compute", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "Corporate income tax is under 10% of US federal revenue while payroll and income taxes are over 80%.", "subjects": [ "United States" ], "value": "<10% corporate / >80% payroll+income", "timestamp": "47:27", "quote": "corporate income is less than 10 percent of federal revenues, and 80 percent plus is payroll taxes and income taxes", "source": "Dwarkesh Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "About 20% of US tax revenue currently goes to servicing the national debt.", "subjects": [ "United States", "Interest rates" ], "value": "~20% of tax revenue", "timestamp": "47:27", "quote": "currently, 20 percent of tax revenue spending goes towards servicing the debt", "source": "Dwarkesh Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" } ], "first_seen": "2026-05-15", "last_seen": "2026-08-25" }