{
 "name": "SpaceX",
 "type": "company",
 "episodes": [
  "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-13-krishna-rao-anthropic-s-cfo-on-managing-compute-scaling-to-3",
  "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
  "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
  "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h",
  "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
  "all-in-2026-06-06-the-ipo-comeback-why-tech-giants-are-finally-going-public-al",
  "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
  "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f",
  "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-",
  "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
  "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr",
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap",
  "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin",
  "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin",
  "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Never being greedy on valuation is a durable 'superpower' for a founder: by consistently making investors money (Elon for 20 years), you can raise as much capital as you want whenever you want, a benefit that lasts decades.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "12:07",
   "quote": "because he's made people money for now 20 years, he has a superpower. That is, he can essentially raise as much capital as he wants whenever he wants.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Orbital compute is real and viable — SpaceX engineers, the most talented on Earth, are confident they have solved the radiator/cooling and maintenance problems — and it will ultimately solve the terrestrial power constraint.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute"
   ],
   "timestamp": "16:39",
   "quote": "I do think it is the most talented group of engineers on planet Earth. And they are very confident they have solved this.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "SpaceX builds data centers dramatically faster than anyone else at lower cost, so with a clear offtake partner it can stamp them out fast and grow the AI/compute business far faster than anyone contemplated.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "48:03",
   "quote": "They build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else at a lower cost",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Only people not involved in data centers or space are skeptical of orbital compute; Google, Anthropic, Amazon, and Nvidia are all convinced it will be a reality.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute"
   ],
   "timestamp": "52:18",
   "quote": "The only people who are skeptical of orbital compute are those people who are not involved in data centers or space.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "David Friedberg",
   "claim": "Space-based data centers and communication networks matter as a government-proof backup for civilization and progress, given the global trend toward restricting speech, commerce, and information.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "55:53",
   "quote": "it's almost like a backup for civilization, but it's a backup for progress",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "claim": "Putting data centers in space is completely doable; a data-center satellite is conceptually not that different from a Starlink satellite, and Elon will pull it off as he did with Starlink.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.65,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Starlink"
   ],
   "timestamp": "58:18",
   "quote": "The difference between a Starlink satellite and a data center satellite is really not that different",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "Starlink and data-center satellites are pretty different — you can't just scale up like that — though orbital data centers are technically possible and Elon will be first to figure it out.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Starlink"
   ],
   "timestamp": "59:25",
   "quote": "No, they're pretty different.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "SpaceX at $2T is underwritable on a multiple of revenue because the revenue gives Elon operating leverage and a capital moat that compounds into technology, execution, and learning moats.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Elon Musk"
   ],
   "timestamp": "59:50",
   "quote": "what the revenue does is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate his differentiation and his competitive mode",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "Terrestrial data centers alone will be $100-200B of revenue by 2030-2032, so you're effectively buying SpaceX at ~20x revenue just for that business.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.65,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:02:18",
   "quote": "terrestrial data centers alone are 100 or 200 billion dollars of revenue by 2030, 2032",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "Elon is the only CEO operating at the scale of civilizational, out-of-left-field projects, and that uniqueness justifies a well-deserved valuation premium.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "59:50",
   "quote": "This is the only guy at the scale of civilizational out-of-left field s**t, he's the guy",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Rapid reusability (flying and landing the same rocket multiple times per day) is the hard, defining engineering challenge of Starship, and even if rivals solve reusability their mass-to-orbit will asymptote to a small number.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:06:49",
   "quote": "Rapid reusability means that you can fly the same, fly and land the same rocket multiple times per day",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Ackman",
   "claim": "High-multiple companies like SpaceX should be underwritten the way you underwrite a venture investment — people, opportunity, context, deal — not on revenue multiples.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "11:19",
   "quote": "I think you underwrite a SpaceX the way you underwrite a venture capital investment.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Ackman",
   "claim": "SpaceX is a near-monopoly in low-cost space launch, which will become increasingly important, even forcing Amazon to become a bigger customer.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Amazon"
   ],
   "timestamp": "11:43",
   "quote": "SpaceX is near monopoly in terms of low-cost space launch. That's going to become increasingly important. Even Amazon is going to have to become an even bigger customer because they're not Blue Origins.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "claim": "He would be comfortable owning the Magnificent 8 private index for the next decade-plus given its diversity across internet, AI, fintech and space.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "Magnificent 8",
    "SpaceX",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "2:10",
   "quote": "I'd feel pretty comfortable owning this index if I could for the next decade plus",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "claim": "SpaceX's per-launch valuation rises because the quality of its business model improves with scale, moving from one-off rockets to recurring-revenue constellations to a platform.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Starlink"
   ],
   "timestamp": "8:46",
   "quote": "the reason is that the quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more you launch",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "claim": "A wide variety of companies, governments and militaries will want to own their own satellite constellations to control their own destiny.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Starlink"
   ],
   "timestamp": "9:30",
   "quote": "a wide variety of companies and governments and militaries will want to own their own constellations so they can control their own destiny",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "claim": "The public market will be the great antiseptic that tests SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic against short sellers and skeptics.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "OpenAI",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "23:10",
   "quote": "It will be the great antiseptic",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "If companies are going to stay private longer, liquid secondary markets are absolutely necessary.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "3:38",
   "quote": "I do just think if companies are going to be staying private longer, this is absolutely necessary.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Kelly Rodriques",
   "claim": "Being a public company CEO is much less fun than being a private company CEO — it turns you primarily into an investment manager rather than a visionary product-first builder.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "10:09",
   "quote": "Turning into an investment manager primarily as a public company CEO is a very different job than being a visionary product first, first principles business.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Kelly Rodriques",
   "claim": "SpaceX has run liquidity programs for almost a decade because of enormous pent-up investor demand, and has done this extraordinarily well.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "secondary markets"
   ],
   "timestamp": "10:09",
   "quote": "a company like SpaceX has done this extraordinarily well. They've run essentially liquidity programs for almost a decade.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Brad Gerstner",
   "claim": "We all think we need to go public sooner — it is destabilizing to create trillions of dollars in private value while 80% of America thinks it's a scam where they're left out.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "14:46",
   "quote": "We all think that we need to go public sooner. The reason I think, it is destabilizing when you're creating trillions of dollars in private value and 80% of America think it's a scam where they're left out and left behind.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "VC firms without material exposure to one of the trillion-dollar-plus companies will have poor returns and poor DPI, and will engage in increasingly desperate, unnatural acts to manufacture a story.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "Anthropic",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "22:08",
   "quote": "I am beginning to see venture firms who don't have exposure to one of these companies behave in strange ways because I think they're starting to feel a little bit of franchise risk",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Long-only mutual funds — which dwarf sovereign wealth funds but are capped at 3–7% private allocation — will be a massive source of new late-stage buying demand as companies go public and positions move out of the private bucket.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "23:22",
   "quote": "this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late-stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out, out of the market for a while.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Brad Gerstner",
   "claim": "Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are extraordinarily real businesses — fundamentally different from CMGI-era companies with no revenue.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "OpenAI",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "31:02",
   "quote": "these are extraordinarily real businesses.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Brad Gerstner",
   "claim": "A normal market correction could see the semi-index drop 10–20% and high-beta stocks drop 30–40%, which would cause recently-entered retail investors to panic.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "31:02",
   "quote": "We could have a normal run-of-the-mill consolidation in the public markets in the semi-index of 10 or 20 percent, which means high beta would be down 30 to 40 percent.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Maris",
   "claim": "Companies spending a trillion dollars with $60B in revenue and then relying on retail investors to absorb that at IPO is financially risky and ethically questionable.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "OpenAI",
    "Anthropic",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "16:09",
   "quote": "a trillion for spend commitments on $60 billion of revenue. Now, you're going to go to the public and hope that retail is going to pick that up?",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Maris",
   "claim": "Passive funds and ETFs holding public retirement assets will be forced to buy overpriced mega-cap tech IPOs, making 401K holders the bag holders.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Anthropic",
    "OpenAI"
   ],
   "timestamp": "16:30",
   "quote": "The passive funds, the ETFs are going to have to pick them up.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mikkel",
   "claim": "'TANGOS' (Tesla, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, SpaceX) could become the new must-own group of AI stocks, succeeding the Magnificent Seven.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.4,
   "subjects": [
    "TANGOS",
    "Tesla",
    "Anthropic",
    "Nvidia",
    "Google",
    "OpenAI",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "04:25",
   "quote": "altså tangos, kan jo være, det bliver det nye. Og det det, skal have aktie af.",
   "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-11"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Harthimmer",
   "claim": "Elon Musk has had a hand in three of the TANGOS companies (Tesla, SpaceX, and OpenAI as a founder), an impressive hit rate.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.6,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "Tesla",
    "SpaceX",
    "OpenAI"
   ],
   "timestamp": "04:42",
   "quote": "To Elon Musk-selskaber, også lige hvad jeg byder mærke i. Og et, hvor han var med som founder fra Skjøvødt også. Tre. Tre har han haft fingrene med i. Altså meget god hitrate.",
   "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-11"
  },
  {
   "holder": "David Sacks",
   "claim": "Musk did not become richer in any real sense from the IPO; his trillionaire status is paper value the public placed on shares he already owned, not cash in a bank account.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.95,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "18:19",
   "quote": "He doesn't have one more dollar in the bank than he did the day before the IPO.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "claim": "Musk's success was earned through a 25-year struggle in which the company nearly went out of business several times, not a lottery win, and he must keep making the best product to retain the value.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "25:36",
   "quote": "It's a 25 year overnight success story that had three or four distinct points where it was going out of business",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "SpaceX's soaring valuation is a textbook market-peak euphoria signal.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "46:11",
   "quote": "It's the classic description of a market peak. It's what you look for at the top of a terrific bubble.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "One should actually hope SpaceX fails, because its success would mean dangerously rapid AI, robotics and energy expansion.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "artificial intelligence"
   ],
   "timestamp": "43:47",
   "quote": "One of the scary things about SpaceX is you should wish that it not work out.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "Musk's Tesla success came from talking the stock far above its worth in a self-fulfilling prophecy, which he cannot repeat with SpaceX.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "Tesla",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "46:11",
   "quote": "He's so good at BS, that's a technical term, that he tore the stock up to four or five times what it was worth on paper.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "Colonizing Mars is essentially fantasy and not viable for the human body.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "Mars",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "49:00",
   "quote": "Going to Mars is not within the laws of physics, really.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Orbital data centers are racks in space linked by lasers, not pentagon-sized buildings.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "orbital compute",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:11:52",
   "quote": "it's racks in space linked with lasers. It's a virtual data center in space.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr",
   "published_at": "2026-06-26"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "Going to space will favor SpaceX's compute stack over the hyperscalers, while remaining terrestrial data centers become extraordinarily valuable 'diamonds'.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute",
    "data centers"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:13:22",
   "quote": "Whatever is left on the ground, though, will be incredibly, incredibly valuable. It'll be a diamond.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr",
   "published_at": "2026-06-26"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Capital markets have already absorbed these mega-valuations; the IPOs just shift ownership from private to public markets that are even bigger.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:28:49",
   "quote": "the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr",
   "published_at": "2026-06-26"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Neil deGrasse Tyson",
   "claim": "Growing orbital satellite constellations pose a real collision-cascade risk (Kessler syndrome), though that threshold has probably not yet been reached.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.65,
   "subjects": [
    "Kessler syndrome",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "58:00",
   "quote": "So he warned us of these thresholds. I don't think we're there yet, but we need to keep it on our radar.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap",
   "published_at": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Brad Gerstner",
   "claim": "Anthropic's and OpenAI's IPOs would be blockbusters, following the textbook blueprint SpaceX established on pricing, lockups, and index inclusion.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI IPOs",
    "Anthropic",
    "OpenAI",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "7:09",
   "quote": "based on the SpaceX success, I think it would be a blockbuster IPO.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin",
   "published_at": "2026-07-11"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "Orbital compute (Blackwell-sized racks in sun-synchronous orbit linked by lasers) will become real and ultimately solve the long-term power constraint, dominating inference.",
   "timeframe": "long-term",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute"
   ],
   "timestamp": "14:24",
   "quote": "And then I think orbital compute will really solve that.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "SpaceX will start selling compute to Google (more easily than to OpenAI), and Google will want to be part of orbital compute.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus"
   ],
   "timestamp": "52:18",
   "quote": "I think it's much easier to see him selling compute to Google. And I think there have already been posts about that",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "SpaceX will achieve rapid reusability with Starship in roughly a year or two, maybe sooner.",
   "timeframe": "1-2 years",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:08:29",
   "quote": "I would guess a year or two, maybe sooner",
   "due": "2028-05-22",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "Orbital compute will become a reality in the second half of 2028 to the first half of 2030 (point prediction).",
   "timeframe": "H2 2028 - H1 2030",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:11:11",
   "quote": "I think the second half of 28 to first half of 2030 would be my point prediction",
   "due": "2030-06-30",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "prediction": "SpaceX's terrestrial data-center business alone will reach $100-200B of revenue by 2030-2032.",
   "timeframe": "by 2030-2032",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:02:18",
   "quote": "terrestrial data centers alone are 100 or 200 billion dollars of revenue by 2030, 2032",
   "due": "2032-12-31",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "prediction": "SpaceX's AI/compute revenue will be roughly $40-45B next year and then likely double the year after.",
   "timeframe": "next 1-2 years",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:02:18",
   "quote": "So I suspect what happens is next year, it's probably 40, 45 billion. And then the year after that, it probably doubles again",
   "due": "2027-12-31",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "prediction": "Tesla will be merged into the combined Elon entity (with SpaceX), creating a single corpus of physical, learning, infrastructure, and connectivity capability.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "Tesla",
    "SpaceX",
    "Elon Musk"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:02:18",
   "quote": "I still don't like the fact that Tesla is over here. And as I told you, that will get merged in",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Ackman",
   "prediction": "Amazon will have to become an even bigger SpaceX customer because it lacks competitive launch capability (Blue Origin).",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "Amazon",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "11:43",
   "quote": "Even Amazon is going to have to become an even bigger customer because they're not Blue Origins.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Bill Ackman",
   "prediction": "If SpaceX goes public at ~$1.75 trillion, it would be the lowest cost-of-capital equity transaction in history.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Cost of capital"
   ],
   "timestamp": "23:10",
   "quote": "If SpaceX goes public at $1,750,000,000,000, it would probably be the lowest cost of capital, equity capital transaction in the history of the world.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h",
   "published_at": "2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "prediction": "Within a few years Starlink will power a device enabling phone calls anywhere in the world.",
   "timeframe": "within a few years",
   "subjects": [
    "Starlink",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "17:00",
   "quote": "I believe that within a few years, Starlink will power a device which will actually enable you to make a phone call anywhere in the world",
   "due": "2029-12-31",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "prediction": "Starlink will capture the global telco profit pool of broadband and wireless.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "Starlink",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "17:00",
   "quote": "the Starlink profit pool is the Telco global profit pool of broadband and wireless",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Thomas Laffont",
   "prediction": "SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will all go public within roughly a 12-month period.",
   "timeframe": "within 12 months",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "OpenAI",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:45",
   "quote": "those outcomes will be public within, it seems like, a 12-month period",
   "due": "2027-06-04",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "It is very clear that companies are going to stay private for longer, making well-functioning secondary markets increasingly necessary.",
   "timeframe": "ongoing",
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "4:20",
   "quote": "I think it is very clear that companies are going to stay private for longer.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "Hundreds of billions of dollars of new late-stage demand from long-only mutual funds will enter public markets once major private companies go public and lockups expire.",
   "timeframe": "within a few years",
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "23:22",
   "quote": "this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late-stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out, out of the market for a while.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Brad Gerstner",
   "prediction": "Retail investors who YOLO into peak-valued late-stage privates at the top of the market will feel disappointed when returns do not go up 3X post-IPO.",
   "timeframe": "near-term",
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX",
    "Anthropic"
   ],
   "timestamp": "15:35",
   "quote": "people who are yoloing into this stuff, and then they feel really disappointed. They're like, hold on a second. I bought the SpaceX IPO and it didn't go up 3X.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "holder": "David Sacks",
   "prediction": "Elon Musk will hold his SpaceX shares well beyond the one-year lockup because creating SpaceX is his life's work.",
   "timeframe": "beyond 1-year lockup",
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "18:19",
   "quote": "I predict that he'll hold on for much longer than that because creating SpaceX is his life's work",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "prediction": "Tesla and SpaceX will merge in a consolidation phase, with the deal structured stock-for-stock so SpaceX's higher future valuation effectively gives Elon a ~50% discount on Cursor.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "Tesla",
    "SpaceX",
    "Elon Musk"
   ],
   "timestamp": "17:42",
   "quote": "we're going to see Tesla and SpaceX merge and it's going to be glorious",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "prediction": "SpaceX will fail to deliver anything like its prospectus promises.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "44:41",
   "quote": "I think it will fail to deliver anything like its promises in the prospectus.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "prediction": "Once Starship is rapidly reusable, putting a gigawatt of compute into space will cost about $5 billion in launch.",
   "timeframe": "when Starship is rapidly reusable",
   "subjects": [
    "Starship",
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:11:52",
   "quote": "When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr",
   "published_at": "2026-06-26"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Steven Bartlett",
   "prediction": "There will be 100,000 active satellites in orbit by 2040.",
   "timeframe": "by 2040",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Kessler syndrome"
   ],
   "timestamp": "56:59",
   "quote": "There'll be 100,000 active satellites in orbit by 2040",
   "due": "2040-01-01",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap",
   "published_at": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Neil deGrasse Tyson",
   "prediction": "The number of active satellites in orbit will likely exceed 100,000 by 2040.",
   "timeframe": "by 2040",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Kessler syndrome"
   ],
   "timestamp": "56:59",
   "quote": "Probably more.",
   "due": "2040-01-01",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap",
   "published_at": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dylan Patel",
   "prediction": "Most compute will still transact at under $20 billion per gigawatt at the end of 2027, despite the headline $40B SpaceX deal.",
   "timeframe": "by end of 2027",
   "subjects": [
    "AI compute",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "22:31",
   "quote": "I think most compute will still continue to transact at sub $20 billion a gigawatt.",
   "due": "2027-12-31",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  }
 ],
 "facts": [
  {
   "statement": "Anthropic announced a partnership with SpaceX for its Colossus facility in Memphis to expand consumer and prosumer capacity.",
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "23:32",
   "quote": "We announced a partnership with SpaceX for their Colossus facility in Memphis.",
   "source": "Krishna Rao",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-13-krishna-rao-anthropic-s-cfo-on-managing-compute-scaling-to-3",
   "published_at": "2026-05-13"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX compounded its valuation at roughly low-30% per year for a decade by never pushing valuation.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Elon Musk"
   ],
   "value": "~low 30%/yr for a decade",
   "timestamp": "13:27",
   "quote": "My friend Antonio pointed out SpaceX compounded it low 30% per year for a decade.",
   "source": "Gavin Baker",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet — about 98-99% of all satellites in orbit — and cools every Starlink today.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "~98-99% of satellites in orbit",
   "timestamp": "16:39",
   "quote": "SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is 98 or 99 percent of all satellites in orbit.",
   "source": "Gavin Baker",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Starlink V3 is expected to operate at 20 kilowatts, versus a Blackwell rack at 100 kilowatts, informing the orbital-compute power budget.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "orbital compute"
   ],
   "value": "Starlink V3 ~20 kW; Blackwell rack ~100 kW",
   "timestamp": "16:39",
   "quote": "I think Starlink V3 is going to operate at 20 kilowatts.",
   "source": "Gavin Baker",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX filed its S-1 aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest IPO ever, more than double Saudi Aramco's ~$29B IPO — listing expected ~June 12 under ticker SPCX.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "$75B raise at $1.75T valuation",
   "timestamp": "45:13",
   "quote": "They are aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion with a T valuation",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Starlink did $11.4 billion in revenue last year on 50% growth, with $4.4 billion in operating income and over 10 million subscribers.",
   "subjects": [
    "Starlink",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "$11.4B revenue, $4.4B op income, 10M+ subs",
   "timestamp": "45:13",
   "quote": "Starlink did $11.4 billion in revenue last year on 50% growth, with $4.4 billion in operating income",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX's space business did about $4 billion in revenue at 17% growth with $650 million in operating losses; its AI business did $3.2 billion (more than double YoY) with $6.4 billion in operating losses.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "Space $4B / AI $3.2B revenue; $6.4B AI op loss",
   "timestamp": "45:13",
   "quote": "AI did $3.2 billion in revenue. That's more than double year-over-year growth, but it had $6.4 billion in operating losses",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX had $20 billion in capex last year, over 60% of it for the AI compute buildout.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "$20B capex, >60% for AI compute",
   "timestamp": "45:13",
   "quote": "SpaceX had $20 billion in capex spend last year. Over 60% was for the AI compute buildout",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Anthropic is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion a month to rent Colossus One and parts of Colossus Two — a $45 billion deal over three years ($15B/year), cancelable by either party on 90 days' notice.",
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus"
   ],
   "value": "$45B over 3 years ($15B/year)",
   "timestamp": "46:01",
   "quote": "Anthropic is paying SpaceX, wait for it, $1.25 billion a month to rent out Colossus One and parts of Colossus Two",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX's data-center build times fell from 122 days for the first, to 91 days for the second, to about 66 days for the third.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Colossus"
   ],
   "value": "122 -> 91 -> 66 days",
   "timestamp": "48:03",
   "quote": "their first data center was 122 days. The second one, it took them 91 days. The third one was, I think, 66 days",
   "source": "Gavin Baker",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Polymarket put the chance that SpaceX closes its first day of trading above a $2 trillion market cap at 71%.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "71% probability",
   "timestamp": "47:28",
   "quote": "Polymarket, 71% chance SpaceX closes its first day of trading with a market cap above $2 trillion",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-",
   "published_at": "2026-05-22"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Launch cadence is the number-one driver correlated to SpaceX's valuation.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "8:00",
   "quote": "the number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches",
   "source": "Thomas Laffont",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "statement": "The global telco/service-provider profit pool is roughly $200-400 billion depending on scope.",
   "subjects": [
    "Starlink",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "$200-400B profit pool",
   "timestamp": "30:09",
   "quote": "the global profit pool of telco and service providers across the world is anywhere between 2 to 400 billion",
   "source": "Thomas Laffont",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and",
   "published_at": "2026-06-04"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Cerebras innovated a 'dribble lockup' with its banks, releasing shares over six months against performance hurdles, which SpaceX is expected to mirror.",
   "subjects": [
    "Cerebras",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "26:15",
   "quote": "over six months, the shares can be dribbled out according to a bunch of performance hurdles, which SpaceX is going to have a very similar lockup to you",
   "source": "David Sacks",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-06-the-ipo-comeback-why-tech-giants-are-finally-going-public-al",
   "published_at": "2026-06-06"
  },
  {
   "statement": "In 2025, buying into secondaries (Anthropic, SpaceX, etc.) represented 31% of all primary venture activity.",
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "Anthropic",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "31% of primary venture activity",
   "timestamp": "0:53",
   "quote": "now represents 31% of all primary venture activity is buying into these secondaries in 2025",
   "source": "Brad Gerstner",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX has been a private company for 24 years.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "24 years private",
   "timestamp": "10:09",
   "quote": "SpaceX, a private company for 24 years.",
   "source": "Kelly Rodriques",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Forge ran its first SpaceX SPVs in 2018 and 2019.",
   "subjects": [
    "Forge",
    "SpaceX",
    "SPVs"
   ],
   "value": "2018-2019",
   "timestamp": "12:19",
   "quote": "we got our first SPVs on SpaceX in 2018 and 2019",
   "source": "Kelly Rodriques",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Interval fund products covering approximately 60 companies including SpaceX are coming to market with $500 minimums for non-accredited investors.",
   "subjects": [
    "secondary markets",
    "SpaceX",
    "interval funds"
   ],
   "value": "$500 minimum, 60 companies",
   "timestamp": "20:41",
   "quote": "there are products coming to market... that have 60 companies, including SpaceX, that are listed products for unaccredited $500 minimums",
   "source": "Kelly Rodriques",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "statement": "14 levered ETFs are being launched on the day of the SpaceX IPO.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "secondary markets"
   ],
   "value": "14 ETFs",
   "timestamp": "28:33",
   "quote": "there are 14 ETFs launching on the day of the SpaceX IPO, there are levered ETFs into SpaceX",
   "source": "Brad Gerstner",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai",
   "published_at": "2026-06-07"
  },
  {
   "statement": "The hosts coin 'TANGOS' as a new AI-focused stock acronym standing for Tesla, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI and SpaceX, succeeding the Magnificent Seven.",
   "subjects": [
    "TANGOS",
    "Tesla",
    "Anthropic",
    "Nvidia",
    "Google",
    "OpenAI",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "02:15",
   "quote": "Og det nye hedder Tango's.",
   "source": "Mikkel",
   "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-11"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Both SpaceX and OpenAI are expected to IPO imminently (SpaceX 'tomorrow' in the word-game framing).",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "OpenAI",
    "IPO"
   ],
   "timestamp": "04:18",
   "quote": "S-ud er selvfølgelig Sparse Axe, som kommer i morgen. ... som da også snart kommer med en IPO.",
   "source": "Thomas Harthimmer",
   "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-",
   "published_at": "2026-06-11"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX went public last Thursday at $135 a share, raising $85B (three times Saudi Aramco's 2019 raise), with the stock closing up 19% to $161 and a market cap above $2 trillion (later $177 at taping).",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "$85B raised, $135 IPO price, +19% to $161, >$2T market cap",
   "timestamp": "14:50",
   "quote": "Eighty five billion raised. That's three times what Saudi Aramco raised back in twenty nineteen",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "The SpaceX IPO was the biggest IPO of all time.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "largest IPO ever",
   "timestamp": "18:19",
   "quote": "this was the biggest IPO of all time",
   "source": "David Sacks",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX exercised its option to acquire Cursor, which is doing $4 billion in revenue, buying it at 15x revenue.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Cursor"
   ],
   "value": "$4B revenue, 15x revenue",
   "timestamp": "16:00",
   "quote": "So they got bought for fifteen times revenue",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Chamath estimates SpaceX got Cursor for effectively $15 billion after the revenue run-rate doubled on top of the discounted stock-for-stock structure.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Cursor"
   ],
   "value": "~$15B effective",
   "timestamp": "17:34",
   "quote": "he essentially got Cursor for 15 billion",
   "source": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX briefly passed Amazon and Microsoft to become the fourth most valuable company before settling at seventh, just behind TSMC.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "briefly 4th, settled 7th most valuable",
   "timestamp": "15:34",
   "quote": "SpaceX briefly passed Amazon and Microsoft, which is mind-blowing to be the fourth most valuable company",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Amazon's 2025 revenue was $717 billion, Microsoft's was $282 billion, and SpaceX's was only $19 billion.",
   "subjects": [
    "Amazon",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "Amazon $717B, Microsoft $282B, SpaceX $19B (2025)",
   "timestamp": "15:34",
   "quote": "Amazon's revenue in twenty five, seven hundred seventeen billion. Microsoft's twenty twenty five, two hundred eighty two billion. SpaceX is twenty five, only nineteen billion.",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX gave 20-30% of the IPO to retail investors, with roughly 600,000-700,000 Robinhood users receiving an allocation.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Robinhood"
   ],
   "value": "20-30% to retail, ~600-700k Robinhood allocations",
   "timestamp": "28:19",
   "quote": "they gave 20 or 30% of the IPO to retail investors",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "A welder at SpaceX reportedly made about a million dollars in SpaceX stock.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "~$1M",
   "timestamp": "22:16",
   "quote": "a welder who worked at SpaceX, who I think has made a million dollars in SpaceX stock",
   "source": "David Sacks",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol",
   "published_at": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX rose from roughly $100 billion when Bartlett invested to about $3 trillion today.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "$100B → $3 trillion",
   "timestamp": "45:10",
   "quote": "it was $100 billion, roughly, in that region when I invested. So it's what it rose up to 3 trillion today.",
   "source": "Steven Bartlett",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX defines its addressable market as a quarter of global GDP.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "1/4 of global GDP",
   "timestamp": "6:49",
   "quote": "SpaceX defines as its addressable market a quarter of the global GDP.",
   "source": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Outside the hyperscalers, only CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX AI have ever brought on more than a gigawatt.",
   "subjects": [
    "CoreWeave",
    "Crusoe",
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:32:23",
   "quote": "the only companies that have ever brought on more than a gigawatt, I think, are CoreWeave, Crusoe and SpaceX AI.",
   "source": "Gavin Baker",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr",
   "published_at": "2026-06-26"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX had approximately 10,510 satellites in orbit as of the recording (mid-2026).",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "10,510 satellites",
   "timestamp": "56:35",
   "quote": "So the last number I saw at SpaceX had 10,510 satellites.",
   "source": "Neil deGrasse Tyson",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap",
   "published_at": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Roughly 5,000 satellite objects were launched into orbit in 2025.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "~5,000 satellites launched in 2025",
   "timestamp": "56:27",
   "quote": "They've launched roughly 5,000 satellites objects into orbit in 2025",
   "source": "Steven Bartlett",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap",
   "published_at": "2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX's IPO raised $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, priced below where the stock trades today, and is up about 25% from the offering.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "AI IPOs"
   ],
   "value": "$75B raised at $1.75T; +25% from IPO",
   "timestamp": "7:09",
   "quote": "They raised $75 billion at $1.75 trillion.",
   "source": "Brad Gerstner",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin",
   "published_at": "2026-07-11"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX now trades at roughly a $2 trillion market cap on about $35 billion of forward revenue, making it the 7th largest company in the world.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX"
   ],
   "value": "~$2T market cap on ~$35B forward revenue",
   "timestamp": "7:09",
   "quote": "it's trading at $2 trillion on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue.",
   "source": "Brad Gerstner",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin",
   "published_at": "2026-07-11"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX's Grok Build coding tool (in public beta since late May, powered by Grok 4.5, running inside Cursor) was sending users' entire codebases — including passwords and API keys — to SpaceX cloud servers despite a privacy setting; SpaceX quietly disabled the upload on July 13th and later open-sourced Grok Build.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Grok Build"
   ],
   "timestamp": "42:43",
   "quote": "SpaceX quietly disabled the upload on July 13th by flipping a switch on their servers.",
   "source": "Jason Calacanis",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin",
   "published_at": "2026-07-18"
  },
  {
   "statement": "To power Colossus behind the meter under personal-use clean-air permits, Elon Musk bought a company making mobile turbines (18-wheeler-style engines); newer solutions like Bloom Energy allow large installations still under a personal-use permit.",
   "subjects": [
    "Elon Musk",
    "SpaceX",
    "Bloom Energy",
    "energy deficit"
   ],
   "timestamp": "57:58",
   "quote": "So Elon cleverly bought a ton of 18 wheeler like engines, basically.",
   "source": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin",
   "published_at": "2026-07-18"
  },
  {
   "statement": "SpaceX sold a gigawatt of compute to Google for about $40 billion, far above the prevailing rate.",
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "Google",
    "AI compute"
   ],
   "value": "$40B per GW",
   "timestamp": "22:18",
   "quote": "the SpaceX sold for $40 billion a gigawatt to Google",
   "source": "Dwarkesh Patel",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  },
  {
   "statement": "Anthropic is willing to pay around 20% rates on incremental debt to build capacity, because renting from SpaceX is more expensive.",
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "SpaceX",
    "Interest rates"
   ],
   "value": "~20% rate",
   "timestamp": "44:48",
   "quote": "Anthropics willing to pay 20 percent rates for the incremental billion dollars to build their capacity",
   "source": "Dylan Patel",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  }
 ],
 "first_seen": "2026-05-13",
 "last_seen": "2026-08-25"
}