{
 "name": "S-curve",
 "type": "concept",
 "episodes": [
  "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "AI is the biggest S-curve Whale Rock has seen, bigger than Internet 1.0, mobile, cloud, and e-commerce.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.9,
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:36",
   "quote": "We've been lucky that we've had Internet 1.0, mobile, cloud, e-commerce, and now AI, which we can confidently say is the biggest.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "If you understand the S-curve, the moats, and the modeling, you genuinely can predict earnings two to four years out — which most of the market refuses to believe.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "S-curve",
    "Whale Rock Capital Management"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:36",
   "quote": "But if you follow and understand the S-curve, you know the motes and you know how to model, you really can predict these great things.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "Technology adoption inflects vertically only when the barriers to adoption are removed — that removal triggers the tornado of demand.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "S-curve",
    "Apple",
    "Tesla"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:36",
   "quote": "And then you rocket when those barriers are removed. That's the tornado of demand that everybody in the world knows they need this right away.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "The electric vehicle S-curve, expected to reach 40-50% of cars, unusually stalled at 10-15% penetration — S-curves are dynamic and must be re-underwritten.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "Tesla",
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:36",
   "quote": "With the electric vehicle S-curve, you have to pay attention to because we thought probably maybe 40 to 50 percent of the cars will go electric, but it did hit a big wall at 10 or 15 percent.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "Exponential growth — and the big stock gains — generally end around 30-40% penetration, when the sell side catches up and big beats stop.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:36",
   "quote": "And generally, when something gets to sort of 30, 40 percent penetrated, then you stop having exponential growth, which means the cell side catches up and there's no longer big beats.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Andy Grove",
   "reported_by": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "At strategic inflection points you can't trust the data — they are about intuition and anecdotal evidence.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "25:27",
   "quote": "Andy Grove says, when you have strategic inflection points, you can't trust the data.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "It's okay to be late to an S-curve — missing the first one to three years (even the first 100%) is fine when the top of the curve is half a trillion dollars away.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "25:27",
   "quote": "It's okay to miss the first one, two, three years in a lot of cases, because if the top of the S curve is half a trillion, the growth can go on for a long time.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "AI adoption will be faster than cloud or SaaS because there is no integration barrier — you just open the browser and it's there, producing a 'backwards L curve.'",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "AI",
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "28:41",
   "quote": "But what's amazing about AI is you just, at least with consumers or even business, you just open up the browser and it's there.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Alex Sacerdote",
   "claim": "Whale Rock's framework stays an edge despite being public because it's genuinely hard to execute — like a casino teaching blackjack — requiring decades of cycles, hardware coverage no one does, and conviction through bubble scares.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "Whale Rock Capital Management",
    "S-curve"
   ],
   "timestamp": "54:09",
   "quote": "It's like, why does a casino teach people how to play blackjack? It's really hard to do.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles",
   "published_at": "2026-06-09"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [],
 "facts": [],
 "first_seen": "2026-06-09",
 "last_seen": "2026-06-09"
}