{ "name": "OpenAI", "type": "company", "episodes": [ "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h", "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "all-in-2026-06-06-the-ipo-comeback-why-tech-giants-are-finally-going-public-al", "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai", "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles", "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-30-etched-building-ai-hardware-to-make-inference-faster-and-che", "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "all-in-2026-07-10-open-source-wins-agi-is-here-and-scorsese-s-ai-toolkit-with-", "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "all-in-2026-07-13-the-trillion-dollar-industries-ai-is-disrupting-voice-law-th", "huberman-lab-2026-07-13-how-to-improve-your-memory-cognitive-function-at-any-age-dr-", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban" ], "claims": [ { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Sam Altman will end up being right about his huge compute commitments but for the wrong reason: he missed on consumer, yet because coding became the all-important sector and OpenAI now has more compute than a token-constrained Anthropic, enterprise/Codex lets him catch up.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Sam Altman", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Codex" ], "timestamp": "4:49", "quote": "I think Sam may end up being right here for the wrong reason, which is he missed on consumer, but enterprise is going gangbusters and is giving him the ability now, I think, to catch up on Codex.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "At a product level OpenAI just had a better couple of weeks than Anthropic: GPT-5.5 reviewed strongly while Opus 4.7 appears to be a bust with people rolling back to 4.6.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "GPT-5.5", "Claude" ], "timestamp": "4:49", "quote": "Opus 4.7, which is the latest Anthropic release, appears to be a bust. People are complaining about it.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The binding constraint across the entire AI market is the supply of power (not demand); missed forecasts reflect insufficient compute capacity, not weak demand.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Hyperscalers" ], "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "Everything in this market is power constrained. The reason that these folks may miss a number or a forecast have nothing to do with demand. It is entirely 100 percent due to the supply of the power necessary to generate the output token.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Power/component supply-chain backlogs will hurt OpenAI and Anthropic the most and benefit the hyperscalers (Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google), forcing model labs to trade equity and control for compute.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Hyperscalers" ], "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "Who will this hurt? It will hurt Anthropic and OpenAI the most. Who will this benefit? It will benefit the hyperscalers, specifically Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "The AI market will evolve toward BCG's 'Rule of Three' 4-2-1 market-share structure, splitting into a consumer market (ChatGPT/Google fighting for first, Anthropic third) and an enterprise market (Anthropic or Google leading).", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Google", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "13:02", "quote": "the consumer market looks like it's trending towards a ChatGPT slash Google fight for first place and second place, and then probably anthropic in third place", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Algorithmic pruning of large models (per a new MIT paper) can cut inference cost ~10x with no loss of accuracy, so AI is still in the very early days of efficiency gains.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "13:02", "quote": "you can actually reduce inference costs by 10x. You can get 10x the output per energy unit that goes into the data center with no loss of accuracy", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "If there's a single reason OpenAI missed its consumer user and revenue targets, it's that Google took meaningful share after Sergey refocused the company and put Gemini at the top of search.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Google" ], "timestamp": "18:37", "quote": "if there is a single reason why OpenAI did not hit its user targets and its revenue targets, certainly around consumer, you'd have to say it's because Google managed to take meaningful share", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Greg Brockman", "reported_by": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Per his discovery diary, OpenAI's true aim was to push Elon out and convert to a for-profit, and the public story would correctly be that they weren't honest with him.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Elon Musk", "Greg Brockman" ], "timestamp": "30:52", "quote": "The true answer is that we want Elon out. If three months later we're doing B Corp, then it was a lie.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Elon Musk", "reported_by": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Allowing OpenAI to convert from a charity to a for-profit would destroy the entire foundation of charitable giving in America.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Elon Musk" ], "timestamp": "30:52", "quote": "if we make it okay to loot a charity, the entire foundation of charitable giving in America will be destroyed", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The most likely outcome of the Musk v. Altman trial is some kind of settlement rather than a full unwinding.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.5, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Elon Musk", "Sam Altman" ], "timestamp": "37:45", "quote": "my guess is, like most of these things, there'll be some sort of settlement or something here, but maybe he takes it to the mat", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Both OpenAI and Anthropic are multi-trillion-dollar companies and will be fine despite the missed targets.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "I think this is a multi-trillion dollar company. I think Anthropic is a multi-trillion dollar company.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Roughly 40% of all announced AI/data-center projects will get canceled because the industry did such a poor job creating a positive halo around AI, mirroring that 40% of all projects in the last four years got canceled.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Hyperscalers", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "12:03", "quote": "40% of all the announced projects get canceled because 40% of all projects in the last four years have been canceled", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The low end of the software market is finished, but the high end of monolith vendors with deep C-suite relationships is safe and positioned to win.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Salesforce", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "36:01", "quote": "I think the low end of the market is basically finished. I think there is no safe space. I think the high end of the market where Mark operates, where the large monoliths operate is quite safe", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "OpenAI's $4B deployment deal (with a 17.5% guaranteed preferred return) reveals that the high end of AI is much harder than expected, not the easy win people assumed.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "36:01", "quote": "at the high end of the market, where all the action is, what people are finding is, hey, hold on a second, this is a lot harder than we thought.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The public markets will soon demand the ROI on the ~$3T spent on AI, forcing AI labs to route their tokens through incumbents like Salesforce to sell them.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Salesforce" ], "timestamp": "36:01", "quote": "the next trade that has to happen is when the public markets become a little bit less breathless about AI. And they ask one simple question. Okay, guys, you've spent $3 trillion in the last four years. What is the ROI of these tokens?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "claim": "Anthropic bet correctly on coding agents while rivals chased sex bots, video, and ad networks, which is why it took off.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Elon Musk" ], "timestamp": "49:07", "quote": "It turned out Anthropic was right, and all of a sudden, the rocket ship took off", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "OpenAI struggles to maintain durable long-term partnerships.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Apple" ], "timestamp": "52:41", "quote": "There doesn't seem to be a lot of long-term partnerships with OpenAI.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "claim": "The idea that multi-sensory AI requires 1000x more (expensive) tokens is wrong; most tokens are wasted and a routing layer will send only the necessary ones to frontier models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:00:20", "quote": "I think that's a mistake to think that way. See, I think we are wasting a lot of these tokens.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Once SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, there will be a wave of lawsuits over the layered SPVs sold against them.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "SPV", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:12:07", "quote": "once SpaceX goes public, once Anthropic goes public, once OpenAI goes public, you're going to see a litany of these lawsuits back and forth between the purveyors of these SPVs", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "The shift from all-you-can-eat to usage-based ('pay by the drink') pricing is deeply bullish for AI labs and is why OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed well over $200B in ARR this year — mirroring how cellular/long-distance grew under metered pricing.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "frontier tokens" ], "timestamp": "36:20", "quote": "I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200 billion in ARR this year.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "published_at": "2026-05-20" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "Jensen/NVIDIA could probably get pretty close to the frontier with its own model whenever it wanted; it is the logical counter-move to what OpenAI and Anthropic are trying to do to NVIDIA.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "NVIDIA", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "52:41", "quote": "I have a belief that whenever he wants, Jensen can probably get pretty close to the Frontier.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "published_at": "2026-05-20" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "With OpenAI and Anthropic at ~$100B ARR at ~80% inference gross margins, the AI returns are clearly there and the whole AI ROI narrative shifts.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "4:34", "quote": "if OpenAI and Anthropic call it $100 billion of ARR now, with 80%-ish gross margins on inference, the returns are there", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "Across LLMs (excluding Google and recommender/ad use cases), it's not hard to see $200-400B of ARR at high margins by end of this year.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "XAI", "Cursor" ], "timestamp": "4:34", "quote": "it's not hard to see $200, $300, $400 billion of ARR at the end of this year at high margins", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Evals are showing frontier models converging to roughly the same capability, which suggests models are being commoditized too quickly and raises the ROI question on incremental training spend.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Rogo", "Claude", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "41:21", "quote": "which theoretically says that these things are getting commoditized way too quickly and then you'd say, well, what's the ROI on all this incremental spend?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Fortune 1000 buyers want an abstraction/control plane that can hot-swap between frontier labs and open models because they fear both being leapfrogged and being cut off over terms-of-service / political-philosophy conflicts.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "open source AI" ], "timestamp": "45:48", "quote": "The second thing that they're increasingly afraid of is terms of service and being at the sake of a frontier lab in a political philosophy that they may be in the crosshairs of accidentally.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "There is more potential for AI-market monopolization than people are pricing in: every major tech category becomes a monopoly/duopoly, and Anthropic appears to be pulling away from OpenAI.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "55:11", "quote": "I do think that there is the potential for the monopolization of this market to a greater degree than people may be pricing in right now", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "A company growing 10x year-over-year against a competitor growing 3x will reach ~90% market share within two years, by the power of compounding.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "55:11", "quote": "if you have one company that's growing at 10x year over year and another company that's growing at 3x year over year, within two years, the first company will have 90% market share", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "His most contrarian January prediction — that AI would lead to job gains, not job loss — is being vindicated as the narrative shifts, with Sam and even Dario walking back massive-job-loss claims.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI washing", "Dario Amodei", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:02:36", "quote": "my most contrarian take back in January on our prediction show is that AI would lead to job gains, not job loss", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "An IPO is just a milestone and another way to fundraise, not a destination a company should be run toward.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:12", "quote": "In the end, an IPO, I say this to the team all the time, it's a milestone. It is not a destination.\nDo not run your company as if that's some sort of destination. It's just another way to fundraise.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Being first or second to IPO does not matter; the market is a weighing machine and durable companies, not filing order, will be what gets measured.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "1:51", "quote": "the market is a weighing machine, not a popularity machine. No one remembers who went first, Google or Yahoo, Lyft or Uber.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Anthropic was far behind but has now blown past OpenAI in developers, corporations, and seemingly revenue, despite OpenAI's earlier lead.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "3:21", "quote": "Anthropic was far behind and now they've really, I think everybody would agree in the industry, now blown past OpenAI in terms of developers and corporations and it seems revenue.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Serving everything on a single AI foundation with many interfaces creates a compounding advantage—more users, more data, more personalization, and ultimately higher gross margins.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "4:55", "quote": "We think that because it's served up on one model, there's a compounding element of advantage that comes from that. More users, more data, more ability to personalize.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Serving everything on a single AI foundation with many interfaces creates a compounding advantage—more users, more data, more personalization, and ultimately higher gross margins.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "4:55", "quote": "We think that because it's served up on one model, there's a compounding element of advantage that comes from that. More users, more data, more ability to personalize.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Framing OpenAI as either a consumer company or an enterprise company is a false binary—it is very much both, with roughly 50-50 revenue.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "6:01", "quote": "the world loves to go to binarisms, like are you a consumer company, Sarah? Are you an enterprise company? The reality is we're very much both.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Giving away a large free tier pays off because once people get a taste of intelligence they climb a commitment curve, with paid tiers using many multiples more turns than free users.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "7:04", "quote": "It's why we offer so much free, because we want people to get a taste. Once they get a taste of intelligence, the ability to come up a commitment curve is incredible.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Giving away a large free tier pays off because once people get a taste of intelligence they climb a commitment curve, with paid tiers using many multiples more turns than free users.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "7:04", "quote": "It's why we offer so much free, because we want people to get a taste. Once they get a taste of intelligence, the ability to come up a commitment curve is incredible.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Buying compute aggressively ahead of demand—despite criticism last year—was the right call, because even in 2026 there still won't be enough compute.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Compute scarcity" ], "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "last year, we were definitely taking some arrows in the back about, why are they out there buying all this compute? I think, thank God we did because in 26, we still won't have enough compute.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Trust and community goodwill (not raising electricity bills, bringing union jobs, paying taxes) are part of the compute supply chain and essential to building data centers quickly.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Salin, Michigan data center", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "9:35", "quote": "Then trust. I actually put that as part of the supply chain.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "AI training should remain in the United States as a national asset, while inference should be global and increasingly real-time for an agentic, multimodal world.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Compute scarcity" ], "timestamp": "13:11", "quote": "there's training that mostly still all happens here in the United States for USG reasons, for making sure that a national asset in effect is happening on US soil. For inference, we want that to be global", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "OpenAI's unannounced Jony Ive-designed consumer device feels not just natural but 'lovable,' an emotional quality she can't fully articulate.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Jony Ive", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "15:29", "quote": "It feels very natural, but it feels very lovable.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Durable, high-value AI-era companies will not be magical; like great companies of prior eras they will start with creating real customer value.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "16:32", "quote": "the durable high-value companies created in this era, I don't think, they're not going to be magical. They're going to look like the great companies of prior eras. They're going to create customer value.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Making a capital-allocation decision on today's compute cost profile would misprice outcomes, so you must lean in and underwrite the deflationary cost curve.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Compute scarcity" ], "timestamp": "18:24", "quote": "Part of making a capital allocation decision is having to, if you make it on today's cost profile, you actually might misprice the outcomes. You have to lean in a little on the cost profile.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Compute per gigawatt is getting more expensive (power and memory costs rising), but per-chip intelligence gains more than offset it, so cost per unit sold to customers keeps falling.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Compute scarcity" ], "timestamp": "20:06", "quote": "we assume right now that compute actually on a per gigawatt is getting more expensive because power is getting more expensive, memory is getting more expensive and so on. However, the intelligence that we get on the other side without because of the deprecation on the chip side is more than making up for that.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "A multi-CSP, multi-chip 'Rubik's Cube' strategy maximizes optionality and keeps OpenAI on the frontier, because being locked to a single chip guarantees a moment when you fall behind.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "NVIDIA" ], "timestamp": "23:09", "quote": "if you're only on one chip, there's just inherently a moment where you can't be on the frontier because there's some leapfrogging that happens.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Everyone in the AI stack is racing to own the layer closest to the customer, because that is where the largest portion of ecosystem profit accrues and no one wants to be abstracted away.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "26:38", "quote": "I think where everyone is trying to make sure they reside is the layer that is closest to the customer, where usually you take the largest portion of the profits of the ecosystem. No one wants to find themselves abstracted away.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "LLMs have de-commoditized rather than commoditized, because the agentic harness brings memory and context that make the model far more valuable, especially inside an enterprise.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Compute scarcity" ], "timestamp": "26:38", "quote": "a year ago, people talked about the commoditization of the LLMs.\nAnd frankly, it's gone the opposite because as you start building an agentic layer, and we've all started to use this word harness, but the harness is what brings the context, the memory", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Pairing ChatGPT's high-intent queries with persistent user memory and context would create a more potent ad platform than Meta's people-like-you demographic targeting.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "ChatGPT", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "29:41", "quote": "In Meta's case, they use this people like you sort of intent, so they have the demographic. We have more than that because we have memory. I just told you it knows who I am. So imagine putting memory and context next to intent. You should have a very potent ad platform", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "Pairing ChatGPT's high-intent queries with persistent user memory and context would create a more potent ad platform than Meta's people-like-you demographic targeting.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "ChatGPT", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "29:41", "quote": "In Meta's case, they use this people like you sort of intent, so they have the demographic. We have more than that because we have memory. I just told you it knows who I am. So imagine putting memory and context next to intent. You should have a very potent ad platform", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "OpenAI deliberately under-monetizes consumer tokens—it would give every token to the higher-paying API if optimizing for today—because it is playing a long game to be an AI utility serving the whole world.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "29:41", "quote": "if you look at the revenue per token right now, if I was optimizing only for today, I would give every token to the API. Every token to the API. Order of magnitude more than to the consumer. However, I told you we're playing our own game.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "claim": "OpenAI deliberately under-monetizes consumer tokens—it would give every token to the higher-paying API if optimizing for today—because it is playing a long game to be an AI utility serving the whole world.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "29:41", "quote": "if you look at the revenue per token right now, if I was optimizing only for today, I would give every token to the API. Every token to the API. Order of magnitude more than to the consumer. However, I told you we're playing our own game.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Bill Ackman", "claim": "Sarah Friar impressed him enough to make him more bullish on OpenAI, and she should be CEO of OpenAI with Sam Altman as chair.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Sarah Friar", "OpenAI", "Sam Altman" ], "timestamp": "0:31", "quote": "Actually, I was super impressed. Made me a lot more bullish on OpenAI.\nI thought she should be CEO of OpenAI.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h", "published_at": "2026-06-03" }, { "holder": "Bill Ackman", "claim": "Anthropic, OpenAI, and Palantir are best understood as late-stage (D/E) venture investments that have proven they can generate significant revenue.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Palantir" ], "timestamp": "13:13", "quote": "They're venture investments that do- What's helpful is they're not seed or series A, they're D or E, but they're still like venture investments. These companies have proven they can generate a lot of revenues", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h", "published_at": "2026-06-03" }, { "holder": "Bill Ackman", "claim": "OpenAI's model of making capital commitments massively in excess of revenues is hard to underwrite from the outside, and OpenAI should explain it better.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "13:13", "quote": "You get a company that's making capital commitments, they're massively in excess of revenues, and how do you do that?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-03-bill-ackman-investment-strategy-what-the-market-is-missing-h", "published_at": "2026-06-03" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "claim": "The narrative that AI models are commodities and the labs will get competed away has been thoroughly disproven.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "24:30", "quote": "I think that's been pretty thoroughly disproven now", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "claim": "The AI labs are real, revenue-generating businesses, not a repeat of the fake companies of the 2000 bubble.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "22:15", "quote": "the one pushback I would have just on the valuation argument is, these are not fake companies", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "claim": "The public market will be the great antiseptic that tests SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic against short sellers and skeptics.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "SpaceX", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "23:10", "quote": "It will be the great antiseptic", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "It is rational for OpenAI or Anthropic to eventually pull a price lever to compete with the other.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "31:20", "quote": "Rationally, they should.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Bill Ackman", "reported_by": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "AI investing amounts to making venture investments in trillion-dollar companies at 50-100x revenue valuations.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "22:33", "quote": "you're making venture investments in trillion dollar companies and giving them 50 times revenue, 100 times revenue valuations", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Andrew Feldman", "claim": "Latency is decisive for AI — there is no market for slow inference, so AI must be delivered in real time.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Cerebras", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "19:42", "quote": "You will not wait for AI. We have to deliver it to you in real time", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-06-the-ipo-comeback-why-tech-giants-are-finally-going-public-al", "published_at": "2026-06-06" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "claim": "Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are extraordinarily real businesses — fundamentally different from CMGI-era companies with no revenue.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "SpaceX" ], "timestamp": "31:02", "quote": "these are extraordinarily real businesses.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai", "published_at": "2026-06-07" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "claim": "Sierra (Brett Taylor's agent-native company) has a compelling upside — being acquired by Meta, Google, or SpaceX to accelerate their agent-native strategy — but is threatened by OpenAI and Anthropic potentially building the same thing.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Sierra", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "33:22", "quote": "The upside on these businesses is that they actually have already built very sophisticated agentic layers and that all these guys, Meta, Google, SpaceX come along and say, we want to buy you because we want to accelerate our path into agent-native.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai", "published_at": "2026-06-07" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "claim": "Models will become a utility layer differentiated by intelligence level and cost per task, not by provider brand — enterprises will buy the right IQ for the job.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "14:05", "quote": "I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You will be able to buy intelligence on the fly, or you can say, I don't need 180 IQ person to go do this task, give me 120 IQ", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "claim": "The profit pools in AI are in applications, not in model usage, because most enterprises cannot use raw models directly and need application companies to solve specific problems.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "analytical SaaS" ], "timestamp": "14:05", "quote": "the profit pools are in applications, not in models. More, Sarah talked about Codex running away. She didn't say OpenAI is running away", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "claim": "Even if you build a great model, you still need a large sales force to get enterprises to adopt it — an advantage the three hyperscalers (including Google) have over pure-play model companies.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Google", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "21:38", "quote": "You can be a model company. You still need to have a sales force that convinces customers to go out there and embrace these models and buy them. And if you think about it, three hyperscalers have the biggest number of salespeople out there.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "claim": "OpenAI should be selling faster — Anthropic has improved its ARR more quickly, suggesting a commercial execution gap at OpenAI.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "23:22", "quote": "They should sell faster, right?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Bill Maris", "claim": "If Google arbitrarily cut token prices by 80%, the business models of OpenAI and Anthropic would go super critical.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Google", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "token pricing" ], "timestamp": "13:25", "quote": "if you're a company and you can go to Google on Gemini and you can pay 80% less for that basically identical product, why wouldn't you do that? Then the compression and the pressure on those other businesses goes super critical.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Google cutting token prices aggressively to destroy competitor margins is not just possible but 100% probable.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.95, "subjects": [ "Google", "token pricing", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "16:06", "quote": "That's 100 percent possible. It's 100 percent probable.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Bill Maris", "claim": "Companies spending a trillion dollars with $60B in revenue and then relying on retail investors to absorb that at IPO is financially risky and ethically questionable.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "SpaceX" ], "timestamp": "16:09", "quote": "a trillion for spend commitments on $60 billion of revenue. Now, you're going to go to the public and hope that retail is going to pick that up?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Bill Maris", "claim": "Companies that wrap themselves in public-benefit language while keeping value creation private and then offloading risk onto public retirement accounts are being hypocritical.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "venture capital fund size" ], "timestamp": "13:25", "quote": "I also have an observation that a bit of an objection to companies that wrap themselves up in public benefit language and then keep the value creation to themselves and an elite group of investors through a big part of the curve and then say, well, we're here to benefit humanity.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Bill Maris", "claim": "Passive funds and ETFs holding public retirement assets will be forced to buy overpriced mega-cap tech IPOs, making 401K holders the bag holders.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "SpaceX", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "16:30", "quote": "The passive funds, the ETFs are going to have to pick them up.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Alex Sacerdote", "claim": "The foundational model layer has resolved into a three-horse race and somewhat of an oligopoly (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google), much as three clouds came to underpin the SaaS world.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Google" ], "timestamp": "3:27", "quote": "So it really started to look like a three-horse race and somewhat of an oligopoly.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Alex Sacerdote", "claim": "If Anthropic or OpenAI hit a wall and stop improving, open-source models will catch up and it becomes a race to the bottom — bad for the model stocks, though the chip companies don't care who wins.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.55, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "open-source AI models" ], "timestamp": "55:48", "quote": "In AI, if Anthropic sort of hits a wall and stops improving or OpenAI, then the open source models will catch up.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-09-alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Mikkel", "claim": "'TANGOS' (Tesla, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, SpaceX) could become the new must-own group of AI stocks, succeeding the Magnificent Seven.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.4, "subjects": [ "TANGOS", "Tesla", "Anthropic", "Nvidia", "Google", "OpenAI", "SpaceX" ], "timestamp": "04:25", "quote": "altså tangos, kan jo være, det bliver det nye. Og det det, skal have aktie af.", "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "published_at": "2026-06-11" }, { "holder": "Thomas Harthimmer", "claim": "Elon Musk has had a hand in three of the TANGOS companies (Tesla, SpaceX, and OpenAI as a founder), an impressive hit rate.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Elon Musk", "Tesla", "SpaceX", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "04:42", "quote": "To Elon Musk-selskaber, også lige hvad jeg byder mærke i. Og et, hvor han var med som founder fra Skjøvødt også. Tre. Tre har han haft fingrene med i. Altså meget god hitrate.", "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "published_at": "2026-06-11" }, { "holder": "Mikkel", "claim": "If Siri's integration within Apple's own ecosystem turns out excellent, users may gradually move to Siri instead of Gemini or ChatGPT.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.35, "subjects": [ "Apple", "Siri", "Gemini", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "13:00", "quote": "altså Siri, vil du ligeså stille komme ind i Siri-verden og bruge det i stedet for Gemini eller Chattjaputte?", "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "published_at": "2026-06-11" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Key congressional races were a referendum on AI, with Anthropic-funded anti-AI groups losing to OpenAI-funded pro-AI groups.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI" ], "timestamp": "0:52", "quote": "it was essentially Anthropic funded anti-AI groups, which is, again, insane, against, in some ways, OpenAI funded pro-AI groups and the pro-AI groups won.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "Frontier model companies should think very carefully about ASICs because of the incentive that creates for NVIDIA.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "NVIDIA", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "52:30", "quote": "I think these frontier model companies should think very, very carefully about ASICs and the incentive that creates for NVIDIA on the model perspective.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "GLM 5.2 is now the best open-weight model for coding, software engineering, and long-context agent work, as good as the currently available US frontier models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "GLM 5.2", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "53:12", "quote": "we now have a Chinese open weight model that is as good as the currently available models from OpenAI and Anthropic.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Rob Wachen", "claim": "In-house hyperscaler and lab chips (TPU, MTIA, Maia, Jalapeño) are not existential to their companies, which is why the best chip in the world is built by a company that only builds that chip.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Nvidia", "Google", "OpenAI", "Etched", "AI chips" ], "timestamp": "55:43", "quote": "It is completely unsurprising that the best chip in the world is built by a company that only builds that chip. It's Nvidia, right?", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-30-etched-building-ai-hardware-to-make-inference-faster-and-che", "published_at": "2026-06-30" }, { "holder": "Alex Karp", "claim": "Enterprises get little value from frontier-lab AI while surrendering their proprietary IP and data to those labs.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI sovereignty", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:24", "quote": "the basic view among enterprises in this country is, I'm going to chill wax and waste my time with tokens, I'm going to get no value and they're going to get my IP.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Given the risk of frontier labs absorbing and later competing on enterprise proprietary knowledge, it is now derelict and irresponsible for a company not to pursue an independent path to AI.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI sovereignty", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "14:29", "quote": "there is a very legitimate question, which is, if you are a reasonable company, why are you not finding an independent way to access this intelligence in a way that doesn't leak your edge away? To do so at this point now is becoming derelict and irresponsible.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Renting intelligence from the same frontier lab that serves your competitors converges everyone's output — you can't rent judgment from a shared source and expect differentiation.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI sovereignty", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "24:13", "quote": "You can't rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The AI model layer has become a duopoly (Anthropic and OpenAI) that Anthropic is trying to entrench via a safety-focused regulatory-capture agenda.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "26:48", "quote": "We have Anthropic pushing for a regulatory capture agenda that would probably enshrine that duopoly situation at a regulatory level because they're pushing for a safety agenda where Dario explicitly says that these other models are not safe.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Government should refrain from entrenching the Anthropic/OpenAI model-layer duopoly and instead keep the model layer competitive, since competition benefits chip makers, developers, enterprises, and consumers alike.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "NVIDIA" ], "timestamp": "26:48", "quote": "they should do everything they can to keep the model layer competitive because competition is what brings out the best and it's good for the ecosystem.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "Andrew Feldman", "claim": "Hyperscalers build their own chips mainly to avoid dependency and control their destiny, not necessarily to make the fastest chip.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "NVIDIA", "Amazon", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "15:46", "quote": "mostly it's about an opportunity to control at least an important part of your destiny.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-10-open-source-wins-agi-is-here-and-scorsese-s-ai-toolkit-with-", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "holder": "Andrew Feldman", "claim": "OpenAI's release of the open-source OSS 120b was a good call and a good open-source model.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "OSS 120b" ], "timestamp": "18:37", "quote": "I think OpenAI made a good call releasing OSS 120b some months back. That was a good open source model.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-10-open-source-wins-agi-is-here-and-scorsese-s-ai-toolkit-with-", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "holder": "Andrew Feldman", "claim": "Intense competition between frontier labs (Dario vs. Sam) is good for the technology, and regions shouldn't reflexively rush to regulate it first.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "23:12", "quote": "we want Dario and Sam competing like crazy.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-10-open-source-wins-agi-is-here-and-scorsese-s-ai-toolkit-with-", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The frontier labs should IPO now, before the coming AI-ROI reckoning seeps into market sentiment, to exit at a high price and raise the most money.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "AI IPOs", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "5:43", "quote": "if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "claim": "Anthropic's and OpenAI's IPOs would be blockbusters, following the textbook blueprint SpaceX established on pricing, lockups, and index inclusion.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI IPOs", "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "SpaceX" ], "timestamp": "7:09", "quote": "based on the SpaceX success, I think it would be a blockbuster IPO.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "claim": "Trillion-dollar-plus AI companies won't deliver durable 50-100% IPO pops, but they will be compounders growing revenue well over 30% a year for many years.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "AI IPOs", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "12:22", "quote": "these things can be compounders. They're going to compound at the rate they compound revenue. And I think all of these companies are going to compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The AI model layer has effectively become a two-company duopoly by revenue (Anthropic and OpenAI), collapsing from what looked like five major labs a year ago, consistent with tech's historical monopoly/duopoly pattern.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "open source vs frontier models", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "52:28", "quote": "A year ago, it seemed like we had five major labs. Now it seems like there's a top two and then everybody else.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Mati Stanislawski", "claim": "ElevenLabs' model-agnostic platform is an advantage because customers can build their orchestration and voice layer without being locked to any single frontier model.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "ElevenLabs", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "25:52", "quote": "And that being agnostic to a specific model is actually helpful because customers can make sure that they build a harness, build their agent orchestration, create a voice element of how that agent interacts with the world, how the marketing or interacts with the world, but they are not dependent on any model.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-13-the-trillion-dollar-industries-ai-is-disrupting-voice-law-th", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Mati Stanislawski", "claim": "ElevenLabs has been able to out-compete Anthropic and OpenAI on voice models across text-to-speech, speech-to-text, turn-taking, and music.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "ElevenLabs", "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "voice AI" ], "timestamp": "25:52", "quote": "And we've been able to out-compete them on voice models, both on text to speech, speech to text, on the turn-taking, on music.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-13-the-trillion-dollar-industries-ai-is-disrupting-voice-law-th", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Mati Stanislawski", "claim": "Frontier labs are actively trying to distill and use ElevenLabs' data, an ongoing threat ElevenLabs can only slow, not fully stop.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "ElevenLabs", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "28:25", "quote": "We know that some companies are continuously trying to figure out how to distill and use the data. So, that is an existing problem and we have a few mechanisms to stop it. Or slow it down, not stop it.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-13-the-trillion-dollar-industries-ai-is-disrupting-voice-law-th", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Andrew Huberman", "claim": "Self-testing (for example, having ChatGPT generate a self-test) is one of the best ways to learn because it exposes the gap between what you know and don't.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "learning", "AI", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "2:17:55", "quote": "self-testing is one of the best ways to learn information", "episode_id": "huberman-lab-2026-07-13-how-to-improve-your-memory-cognitive-function-at-any-age-dr-", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "OpenAI and Anthropic are deliberately trying to automate their own AI research so they no longer need human employees, in order to reach superintelligence before rivals.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "20:52", "quote": "trying to automate themselves. They're trying to make it the case that they don't really need human employees anymore.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "The dominant motive at the top of these companies is power-seeking, not merely commercial, incentives.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Sam Altman" ], "timestamp": "12:33", "quote": "I would describe it as power seeking incentives", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "The labs' founding safety narratives became rationalizations to justify racing rather than genuine guides to their behavior.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Google DeepMind" ], "timestamp": "11:01", "quote": "I increasingly came to think that these were rationalizations to justify what they were doing, rather than sort of like deeply guiding their actual behavior.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "OpenAI founders", "reported_by": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "OpenAI was founded in part because its founders feared Demis Hassabis at Google would become dictator with AGI.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Demis Hassabis", "Google DeepMind" ], "timestamp": "12:33", "quote": "the reason why we made OpenAI was because we were worried that Demisosavis at Google was going to become dictator with AGI.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "No one — especially a smart, successful senior employee — should ever steal anything from a former employer.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Apple" ], "timestamp": "40:12", "quote": "But nobody should be stealing things from their former employer. Nobody.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The simple rule to avoid trade-secret disputes is that the only thing an employee should carry to a new job is what's in their head — no thumb drives, documents, or files.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Apple" ], "timestamp": "41:46", "quote": "The only thing you can bring to your new job is what's in your head.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Anthropic and, to some extent, OpenAI want enterprises locked into a monolithic closed model stack — their models, their harness, their data control — which is spurring an ecosystem to build open alternatives.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI sovereignty" ], "timestamp": "45:59", "quote": "they want you to be locked in to their stack, right? Their models, their harness, they control the data, all of that.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "SPEAKER_1", "claim": "The AI capex boom is being priced for perfection: the hundreds of billions committed have to come back not just as revenue but as actual profit margin.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "AI bubble", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "3:55", "quote": "And that's going to come back, not just in revenue, but it has to come back in earnings.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "holder": "Mark Cuban", "claim": "Employees at hot, richly-valued AI companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX should get their concentrated stock collared now to protect their downside while keeping some upside, rather than staying fully exposed.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "stock collar", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "6:59", "quote": "if I work for any SpaceX, any of them, whatever, I'd be like, you know, somebody put together a collar for me. You know, because I just need to be protected, save part for my upside, but just cover my downside.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "holder": "Mark Cuban", "claim": "Current AI assistants cannot handle a real recurring business workflow, like a standing weekly research report emailed automatically, without the user having a programming mindset to fix the JSON or code it produces.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "enterprise AI ROI", "ChatGPT", "Claude" ], "timestamp": "10:40", "quote": "It can't do it.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The centralization of compute into OpenAI and Anthropic is accelerating rather than slowing.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "3:50", "quote": "And this centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "By the end of 2028 OpenAI and Anthropic will control most of the world's usable flops on their own, because their share of incremental compute is also the newest and most efficient.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "5:52", "quote": "you've got them just controlling most of the usable flops in the world on their own.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The labs cannot reach ~100GW by 2028 at today's compute prices — they would have to pay $25-50M per megawatt to take 70% of the world's compute.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "AI compute", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "16:03", "quote": "They do have to start paying 25, 30, 50 million dollars a megawatt to really gobble up 70% of the world's compute", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The safety regulation the US labs advocate for slows them down far more than it slows open-source Chinese models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "China" ], "timestamp": "16:03", "quote": "This regulation that they advocate for is actually slowing down the labs a lot more than it slows down sort of the open source Chinese language models.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "Because the labs are withholding their best models, revenue per megawatt can stall or decline as competing models catch up.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "16:03", "quote": "They're clearly not releasing their best models, and in which case, the revenue per megawatt stalls or even can start to decline again because other models are competitive again.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "Most of the value AI models generate is captured by their users, not by OpenAI and Anthropic.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI value capture", "Jane Street" ], "timestamp": "18:23", "quote": "most of the value that these models generate does not get given to OpenAI and Anthropic.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The labs will allocate a declining share of compute to inference over time — a view he flags as explicitly non-consensus — because building AGI beats taking the profit.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute", "AGI" ], "timestamp": "30:30", "quote": "this is sort of what I personally believe that the labs are going to allocate less and less compute to inference over time, which I think is very non-consensus", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The labs are already shifting marginal compute toward R&D rather than inference — visible in revenue adds plateauing while compute keeps growing.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "32:40", "quote": "they are factually increasing their compute towards R&D today.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "By the end of this decade a single lab could plausibly hold more effective AI labor than there are people on earth.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AGI" ], "timestamp": "1:07:36", "quote": "That there's more AI labor, more effective population within a single lab, than there are people on earth.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "Because most of the world's cognitive work would sit inside two labs, misalignment there is effectively misalignment of most of the world.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AGI" ], "timestamp": "1:07:36", "quote": "if these AIs are misaligned, then most of the world is misaligned basically, because most of the world's minds are there.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "AI training has huge economies of scale — training effort amortizes across billions of sessions — which structurally compounds whoever is ahead.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI compute", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "1:11:20", "quote": "I think the fundamental problem is that lab, AI training has huge economies of scale.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Greg Brockman", "reported_by": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "OpenAI has entered the AGI era with GPT-6.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "GPT-6", "AGI" ], "timestamp": "1:16", "quote": "Greg Brockman says he believes OpenAI has entered the AGI era.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Sam Altman", "reported_by": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Much more capable models are coming soon and the next generation will be sobering for everyone.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "GPT-6" ], "timestamp": "1:16", "quote": "The next generation of models are going to be sobering for everyone.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "AGI has effectively been here since the beginning of the year; the frontier labs hold far more performant internal models and are working out the release cadence.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AGI", "OpenAI", "GPT-6" ], "timestamp": "2:41", "quote": "I think AGI has basically been here since the beginning of the year. There are models that are incredibly performant inside of the closed frontier lab companies.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "GPT-6-class capabilities will be matched or nearly matched by several closed and open-source alternatives within three or four months.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "GPT-6", "OpenAI", "open source" ], "timestamp": "2:41", "quote": "I also think that these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of closed-source alternatives and open-source alternatives, probably within the next three or four months.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Grokbot is competitive with, if not better than, the OpenAI and Anthropic offerings for most users, and the labs are leapfrogging each other every two to four weeks.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Grokbot", "xAI", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "4:22", "quote": "it's clearly Grokbot is competitive, if not better for most users. So vibrant, vibrant competition with leapfrogging occurring at a cadence I would say of two to four weeks right now.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The AI market is two-tier: frontier intelligence is an Anthropic/OpenAI duopoly, while everyone else including open models competes as commodity intelligence on price.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "open source", "AI market structure" ], "timestamp": "5:28", "quote": "There's the market for Frontier Intelligence, and that is a duopoly. That really is Anthropic and OpenAI, and it's good to see that that is still a horse race, and they're competing. And then there's Commodity Intelligence, which is everybody else, including all the open models.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Anthropic and OpenAI will eventually ship their own Grokbot-style bot products.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Grokbot" ], "timestamp": "5:28", "quote": "I would assume that both Anthropic and OpenAI will eventually pull out their own version of bots.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "San Francisco's ultra-luxury housing market could reach $5,000 per square foot, London-type prices, on the back of the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO wealth.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "San Francisco", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "16:13", "quote": "I think the ultra luxury market in San Francisco could easily go to 5,000 a foot London type prices.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Dwarkesh unnecessarily sensationalized and anthropomorphized the incident; agent swarms, shared postmortem notes and a vendor-misconfigured sandbox are standard features, not an AI breakout.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Dwarkesh Patel", "OpenAI", "Hugging Face", "AI agents" ], "timestamp": "24:42", "quote": "I don't think it was necessary for him to sensationalize the incident. It was interesting on its own.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The OpenAI agents did not engage in independent goal-seeking; they executed an assigned offensive-cyber benchmark, creatively but within the goal they were given.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "AI agents", "Hugging Face" ], "timestamp": "28:43", "quote": "But it did not invent this goal. It did not have its own independent motives. It was doing what it was supposed to do.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "An FDA-style AI approval process would not have caught the incident because it was internal pre-release testing, which is exactly how labs learn and fix problems.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "34:11", "quote": "But look, even if we had an FDA for AI, it wouldn't have worked because this was in pre-testing.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Guardrails already backfired: Hugging Face was forced to use the Chinese GLM 5.2 model for cyber defense because the latest GPT model refused to cooperate, so restrictions deny Western defenders the best American models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Hugging Face", "GLM 5.2", "OpenAI", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "34:11", "quote": "They're being forced to turn to Chinese models for cyber defense because the guardrails have prevented them from having the latest and greatest American models.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The sentient-AI framing hijacked a ratings-driven media and functioned as pre-IPO earned media for OpenAI, priming the public to buy shares, even if Dwarkesh had no bad intent.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Dwarkesh Patel", "OpenAI", "media" ], "timestamp": "37:03", "quote": "And this makes people, it's priming the pump to buy the IPO shares. It's ridiculous.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will fund north of half a trillion dollars of charitable giving directed through one ideological lens, with Soros- or Koch-scale influence on outcomes.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "effective altruism" ], "timestamp": "41:13", "quote": "it's going to be north of half a trillion dollars between the two companies. It could be even more than that.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Starting now Nvidia is the number-one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic for both tokens and enterprise compute, offering sovereign racks at 80-90% lower prices because it profits from hardware.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Nvidia", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Jensen Huang" ], "timestamp": "45:22", "quote": "NVIDIA is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The frontier duopoly lobbies aggressively for a new regulatory agency because regulatory capture would let it control that agency and shut out open models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI regulation", "open source" ], "timestamp": "49:35", "quote": "And that duopoly has been aggressively lobbying for a new regulatory agency. Why? Because of red capture, they can now control it.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "predictions": [ { "holder": "David Friedberg", "prediction": "The AI market will settle into a 4-2-1 'Rule of Three' market-share structure across separate consumer and enterprise markets.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Google", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "13:02", "quote": "any stable, mature, competitive market evolves to a 4 to 2 to 1 ratio of market share for basically 90% of the market", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "About 40% of all announced AI/data-center projects will get canceled.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Hyperscalers", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "12:03", "quote": "40% of all the announced projects get canceled", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "Once SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, there will be a litany of lawsuits between the purveyors of layered SPVs.", "timeframe": "unspecified (post-IPO)", "subjects": [ "SPV", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:12:07", "quote": "you're going to see a litany of these lawsuits back and forth between the purveyors of these SPVs", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "The public markets will turn less breathless about AI and demand the ROI on the ~$3T spent, forcing AI labs to route their tokens through incumbents to sell them.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Salesforce" ], "timestamp": "36:01", "quote": "the next trade that has to happen is when the public markets become a little bit less breathless about AI.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "prediction": "A hot new company will emerge that sits between customers and Anthropic/OpenAI and routes only the tokens that actually need frontier models.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:00:20", "quote": "there's going to be a hot new company that's going to come along and say this, I'm going to sit between you and Anthropic and OpenAI, and I'm going to make sure that you only need their tokens when you actually need them.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "prediction": "OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed well over $200 billion in ARR this year, driven by usage-based pricing plus more compute coming online.", "timeframe": "by end of 2026", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "frontier tokens" ], "timestamp": "36:20", "quote": "you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200 billion in ARR this year.", "due": "2026-12-31", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "published_at": "2026-05-20" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "prediction": "Frontier labs will increasingly stop releasing their best models via API (anti-distillation game theory), keeping open source a fixed timeframe behind the frontier.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "NVIDIA", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "55:03", "quote": "I do think Jensen is going to keep open source a certain timeframe behind the frontier.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "published_at": "2026-05-20" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "prediction": "LLM ARR (ex-Google, ex-recommender/ad use cases) will reach $200-400B at high margins by the end of this year.", "timeframe": "by end of 2026", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "XAI", "Cursor" ], "timestamp": "4:34", "quote": "it's not hard to see $200, $300, $400 billion of ARR at the end of this year at high margins", "due": "2026-12-31", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "If Anthropic keeps outgrowing OpenAI (10x vs 3x YoY), it will reach ~90% market share within two years, though a competitive response or compute constraints may prevent it.", "timeframe": "within 2 years", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "55:11", "quote": "if you have one company that's growing at 10x year over year and another company that's growing at 3x year over year, within two years, the first company will have 90% market share", "due": "2028-05-29", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "prediction": "OpenAI will unveil its new Jony Ive-designed consumer device early next year (having confirmed it by the end of this year).", "timeframe": "early 2027", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Jony Ive" ], "timestamp": "14:57", "quote": "We're changing into a consumer substrate that I cannot tell you what it is. But by the end of this year, we will unveil it early next year.", "due": "2027-06-30", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "prediction": "OpenAI will not get usable compute out of the Salin, Michigan data center until roughly the end of 2027 or early 2028.", "timeframe": "end of 2027 to early 2028", "subjects": [ "Salin, Michigan data center", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "18:24", "quote": "that Michigan data center in Salin, I don't think we will be getting compute out of it until probably end of 27, early 28", "due": "2028-03-31", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "prediction": "Compute scarcity will persist and even tighten in the 2030-2032 window, where OpenAI now feels most short of compute.", "timeframe": "2030-2032", "subjects": [ "Compute scarcity", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "18:24", "quote": "where I feel most short of compute right now is starting to look at 30, 31, 32 So you're having to create a business model.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Sarah Friar", "prediction": "OpenAI's next big training run in the fall will run on NVIDIA's Vera Rubin chips, with the Feynman series being plotted next.", "timeframe": "fall 2026", "subjects": [ "NVIDIA", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "23:09", "quote": "Our next big trading run in the fall will be done on Vera Rubin's. We're really excited about that, and now we're plotting the Feynman series that's coming.", "due": "2026-12-21", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "prediction": "OpenAI/Anthropic-class AI revenue, already past Google Cloud and Azure, will surpass AWS by the end of the year and all of Microsoft by 2028.", "timeframe": "by 2028", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "6:00", "quote": "by the end of the year could be bigger than AWS and potentially bigger than all of Microsoft by 2028", "due": "2028-12-31", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "prediction": "The AI ecosystem (~$140B today, ~$300B this year) will double in 2027.", "timeframe": "by 2027", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "16:00", "quote": "We believe that it's about 140 billion today. It'll be about 300 billion this year and it'll double in 2027", "due": "2027-12-31", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "prediction": "AI-enabled ad penetration at Meta and Google will eventually go from about a quarter today to 100%, worth ~$150B.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "16:00", "quote": "We estimate currently that about a quarter of ads served by Meta and Google are AI enabled. We think that penetration will eventually go to 100 percent. That's 150 billion", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "prediction": "SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will all go public within roughly a 12-month period.", "timeframe": "within 12 months", "subjects": [ "SpaceX", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "19:45", "quote": "those outcomes will be public within, it seems like, a 12-month period", "due": "2027-06-04", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Thomas Laffont", "prediction": "We may see a price war between OpenAI and Anthropic if their excess capital is used to compete the way ride-sharing and food-delivery wars played out.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "30:09", "quote": "Could we see a price war between OpenAI and Anthropic as a question", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "prediction": "Models will become a commodity utility layer priced by intelligence level — enterprises will not pay a premium for any one model provider.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Google" ], "timestamp": "14:05", "quote": "I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You will be able to buy intelligence on the fly", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Bill Maris", "prediction": "If Google chooses to cut token prices by 80%, it will put OpenAI and Anthropic under severe competitive pressure, potentially making their business models unviable.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Google", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "token pricing" ], "timestamp": "13:25", "quote": "if you're a company and you can go to Google on Gemini and you can pay 80% less for that basically identical product, why wouldn't you do that? Then the compression and the pressure on those other businesses goes super critical.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-09-bill-maris-how-google-could-crush-ai-competitors-why-small-f", "published_at": "2026-06-09" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "prediction": "NVIDIA may start an OpenAI competitor once OpenAI moves into making its own chips.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "NVIDIA", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "52:40", "quote": "Don't be surprised if NVIDIA starts an OpenAI competitor.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "prediction": "Anthropic and OpenAI are very likely to complete their IPOs within the next six to nine months (this year or early next), absent a black-swan event.", "timeframe": "next 6-9 months", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI IPOs" ], "timestamp": "7:09", "quote": "Yeah, I think it's very high.", "due": "2027-04-11", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "prediction": "If Anthropic and OpenAI end the year over $100 billion in revenue, they could 3-5x revenue again next year (toward $300-400 billion).", "timeframe": "next year", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "19:57", "quote": "If these guys end the year over $100 billion, I think that they're on a revenue trajectory that they could 3 to 5x again next year.", "due": "2027-12-31", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "prediction": "Local near-frontier models running on Apple silicon (M7 Ultra, 1.5TB RAM) will put massive downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI pricing.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Apple", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "55:45", "quote": "they will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just putting local models and supporting them with this memory architecture.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "prediction": "By the end of 2027, half of the world's incremental new compute goes to just OpenAI and Anthropic.", "timeframe": "by end of 2027", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "3:50", "quote": "it's really by the end of next year, it's already half of the incremental compute is going to Anthropic and OpenAI.", "due": "2027-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "prediction": "By the end of 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic together control most of the world's usable flops.", "timeframe": "by end of 2028", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "5:52", "quote": "by the time you're in towards the end of 2028, if this trend continues, which I see nothing that's stopping it, you've got them just controlling most of the usable flops in the world on their own.", "due": "2028-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "prediction": "By the end of 2027 a leading lab's blended revenue per megawatt reaches $70-80M or higher.", "timeframe": "by end of 2027", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI value capture" ], "timestamp": "25:55", "quote": "it's like 70, 80 million dollars a megawatt blended across the company, if not higher", "due": "2027-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "prediction": "By the end of this decade, a single frontier lab holds more effective AI labor than there are people on earth.", "timeframe": "by end of the decade", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AGI" ], "timestamp": "1:07:36", "quote": "And I think that's like a thing that is very plausible by the end of this decade.", "due": "2030-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "GPT-6-class capabilities will be matched or nearly matched by a handful of closed-source and open-source alternatives.", "timeframe": "within the next three or four months", "subjects": [ "GPT-6", "OpenAI", "open source" ], "timestamp": "2:41", "quote": "these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of closed-source alternatives and open-source alternatives, probably within the next three or four months.", "due": "2027-01-04", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "Anthropic and OpenAI will eventually ship their own Grokbot-style bot products.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Grokbot" ], "timestamp": "5:28", "quote": "I would assume that both Anthropic and OpenAI will eventually pull out their own version of bots.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "The Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will fund more than half a trillion dollars of charitable giving and donor-advised funds.", "timeframe": "post-IPO, unspecified", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "effective altruism" ], "timestamp": "41:13", "quote": "it's going to be north of half a trillion dollars between the two companies.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "facts": [ { "statement": "A WSJ investigative report said OpenAI expected to hit 1 billion weekly active users before the end of 2025 but missed it and still hadn't hit it four months into 2026, and also missed its 2025 ChatGPT revenue target.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "1B WAU target missed", "timestamp": "2:50", "quote": "OpenAI expected to hit 1 billion WoWs weekly active users before the end of 2025 They missed that, and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "OpenAI's ChatGPT is at roughly a $20-30 billion run rate.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "$20-30B run rate", "timestamp": "2:50", "quote": "they're at a 20, 30 billion dollar run rate", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "OpenAI has about $600 billion in compute spending commitments, roughly equal to its secondary-market valuation.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "$600B compute commitments", "timestamp": "2:50", "quote": "OpenAI has $600 billion in spending commitments for Compute", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "OpenAI still has about 900 million weekly users, well ahead of Claude (estimated sub-100 million), with Gemini in the 700M-1B range.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Claude", "Google" ], "value": "~900M weekly users", "timestamp": "13:02", "quote": "they're still at 900 million weekly users, which is well ahead of whatever Claude is at. I think Claude is probably sub 100 million", "source": "David Friedberg", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "Polymarket showed a 32% chance OpenAI goes public by the end of 2026, down from 60% in December.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Polymarket" ], "value": "32% (down from 60%)", "timestamp": "7:46", "quote": "Polymarket showing now a 32% chance that OpenAI goes public by the end of 2026 This is down from 60% in December.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "Elon Musk's suit accuses OpenAI of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment, seeks $150 billion in damages, asks that OpenAI revert to a nonprofit, and that Altman and Brockman be removed.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Elon Musk", "Sam Altman", "Greg Brockman" ], "value": "$150B in damages sought", "timestamp": "30:52", "quote": "He's seeking $150 billion in damages that they revert back to a non-profit that Altman and Brockman be removed.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "Polymarket has stayed at roughly 42-43% that Elon wins, unmoved even after the discovery documents were published.", "subjects": [ "Polymarket", "Elon Musk", "OpenAI" ], "value": "42-43%", "timestamp": "34:28", "quote": "It's effectively at 42 or 43 percent that Elon wins.", "source": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "The Musk v. Altman case is a bench trial before Judge Rogers (a 61-year-old Obama appointee) where the jury is advisory and the judge makes the final call and sets damages.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Elon Musk" ], "value": "bench trial, advisory jury", "timestamp": "36:13", "quote": "It's a bench trial where the jury is advisory in capacity. But ultimately, that judge, she will make the final call.", "source": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-01-openai-misses-targets-codex-vs-claude-elon-vs-sam-trial-big-", "published_at": "2026-05-01" }, { "statement": "OpenAI is reportedly considering suing Apple over their ChatGPT partnership for breach of contract, having expected billions in subscription revenue.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Apple" ], "timestamp": "47:24", "quote": "OpenAI, in a breaking news story, is considering suing Apple over their Chat GPT partnership", "source": "Jason", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "Anthropic burned roughly 80% less capital than OpenAI to reach a similar revenue scale, reflecting a materially lower cost per token and different structural ROIC.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "value": "~80% less capital burned", "timestamp": "10:07", "quote": "they burned maybe 80% less than OpenAI.", "source": "Gavin Baker", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "published_at": "2026-05-20" }, { "statement": "The current Pareto frontier (intelligence vs. cost) is dominated by Anthropic and OpenAI, with Grok 4.3 on it and Gemini 3.1 hanging on — a reversal from nine months earlier when Google dominated it.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Grok 4.3", "Google" ], "timestamp": "31:17", "quote": "Now, the Pareto frontier is dominated by Anthropic, OpenAI, and then Grok 4.3 is on the Pareto frontier.", "source": "Gavin Baker", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers", "published_at": "2026-05-20" }, { "statement": "OpenAI and Anthropic are at roughly $100B of ARR combined, with about 80% gross margins on inference.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "value": "~$100B ARR, ~80% gross margins", "timestamp": "4:34", "quote": "call it $100 billion of ARR now, with 80%-ish gross margins on inference", "source": "Gavin Baker", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "statement": "OpenAI is currently being sued by the family of a child who died by suicide after talking to OpenAI's model.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "31:27", "quote": "OpenAI is being sued right now by a kid who killed themselves after talking to OpenAI's model", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "statement": "The frontier models, each with one dot on the Pareto frontier, are XAI's Grok 4.3 (a 500-billion-parameter model), Google 3.1 Pro, OpenAI, and Anthropic.", "subjects": [ "Grok", "XAI", "Google", "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "value": "Grok 4.3 = 500B parameters", "timestamp": "52:57", "quote": "XAI, with one build of Grok 4.3, which is a 500 billion parameter model, Google 3.1 Pro, and then OpenAI and Anthropic", "source": "Gavin Baker", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "statement": "Rogo's eval paper found top frontier models (Opus 47, GPT-55, Sonnet 46) separated by less than three-tenths of a percentage point overall.", "subjects": [ "Rogo", "Claude", "OpenAI" ], "value": "<0.3 pp spread", "timestamp": "41:21", "quote": "At the top of the leaderboard, Opus 47, GPT-55, Sonnet 46, appear almost indistinguishable, separated by less than, in this case, three-tenths of a percentage point overall.", "source": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "statement": "OpenAI raised over $120 billion (stated as $122 billion in March), described as the largest private fundraise up until the SpaceX IPO.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "$122 billion", "timestamp": "0:10", "quote": "We're going to raise actually north of $120 billion.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "Over 900 million people use ChatGPT weekly, and OpenAI's fastest-growing continent is Africa and fastest-growing languages are Azerbaijani and Kazakh.", "subjects": [ "ChatGPT", "OpenAI" ], "value": "900M+ weekly users", "timestamp": "3:57", "quote": "Over 900 million people use ChatGPT weekly, and it's become the noun and the verb.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "Over 900 million people use ChatGPT weekly, and OpenAI's fastest-growing continent is Africa and fastest-growing languages are Azerbaijani and Kazakh.", "subjects": [ "ChatGPT", "OpenAI" ], "value": "900M+ weekly users", "timestamp": "3:57", "quote": "Over 900 million people use ChatGPT weekly, and it's become the noun and the verb.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "OpenAI's revenue is roughly balanced about 50-50 between consumer and enterprise.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "~50-50", "timestamp": "6:01", "quote": "Right now, our revenue is getting pretty balanced, about 50-50.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "Usage scales sharply by tier: free users average ~7 turns/day, the first paid tier ~15, Plus ($20/mo) ~3x a free user, and Pro ~11x a free user.", "subjects": [ "ChatGPT", "OpenAI" ], "value": "7 / 15 / 3x / 11x turns", "timestamp": "6:01", "quote": "Our free users do about seven turns, seven questions a day. Our first paid tier do double that, about 15", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "Usage scales sharply by tier: free users average ~7 turns/day, the first paid tier ~15, Plus ($20/mo) ~3x a free user, and Pro ~11x a free user.", "subjects": [ "ChatGPT", "OpenAI" ], "value": "7 / 15 / 3x / 11x turns", "timestamp": "6:01", "quote": "Our free users do about seven turns, seven questions a day. Our first paid tier do double that, about 15", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "OpenAI's framing that one gigawatt of compute is roughly equivalent to about $10 billion a year of revenue.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Compute scarcity" ], "value": "1 GW ≈ $10B/year revenue", "timestamp": "7:42", "quote": "one gigawatt is roughly equivalent to about $10 billion a year of revenue to OpenAI", "source": "David Sacks (attributing Sarah Friar's framing)", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "For the Salin, Michigan data center, OpenAI commits to 2,500 union jobs, about $1 billion in taxes to Michigan, and $45 million toward education via Codex credits.", "subjects": [ "Salin, Michigan data center", "OpenAI", "Codex" ], "value": "2,500 jobs; $1B taxes; $45M education", "timestamp": "9:35", "quote": "we're going to bring jobs, 2,500 union jobs, good jobs like electricians, HVAC, and so on.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "The compute cost deprecation from GPT-4 to GPT-5.4 was about 97%, achieved in roughly two years.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "97% in ~2 years", "timestamp": "16:32", "quote": "From 4 to 5.4, it was 97 percent. But that happened in like two years.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "OpenAI raised prices on the 5.5 model by 2x, yet customers still see roughly a 20-30% cost reduction per token due to greater efficiency.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "+2x price; -20-30% cost/token", "timestamp": "16:32", "quote": "we actually raise prices on 5.5 2X.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "Two years ago OpenAI used one CSP (Microsoft Azure), one chip (NVIDIA), one product (ChatGPT), at one price point ($20/month).", "subjects": [ "OpenAI" ], "value": "1 CSP / 1 chip / 1 product / $20", "timestamp": "23:09", "quote": "We sat on one chip, NVIDIA. We had one product, Chad GBT, one price point, $20 a month.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "OpenAI now runs on every major CSP (Oracle, CoreWeave, Microsoft, GCP, AWS plus smaller neo-clouds) and has chips from NVIDIA, AMD, Cerebras, and its own Broadcom-built chip in the pipeline.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "NVIDIA", "AMD", "Cerebras", "Broadcom" ], "timestamp": "23:09", "quote": "today we sit on top of every CSP, Oracle, CoreWeave, Microsoft, GCP, AWS, and a bunch of small Neo scalars.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "OpenAI announced a built-to-suit data center it is building with SoftBank Energy in Texas, beyond its CSP arrangements.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "SoftBank", "Salin, Michigan data center" ], "timestamp": "23:09", "quote": "We announced a data center we're building with SoftBank Energy down in Texas.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "ChatGPT holds at least 11% of the search market, and likely more because a multi-question conversation counts as a single query versus a Google page refresh counting each time.", "subjects": [ "ChatGPT" ], "value": "≥11% search share", "timestamp": "29:41", "quote": "we know we have at least 11 percent of the search market.", "source": "Sarah Friar", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-02-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-ipo-ai-rivalries-new-device-and-spend", "published_at": "2026-06-02" }, { "statement": "OpenAI and Anthropic revenue is now bigger than Google Cloud and Azure, having passed Workday, ServiceNow, Adobe and Salesforce in about 18 months.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "value": "> Google Cloud and Azure", "timestamp": "6:00", "quote": "Now even bigger than Google Cloud and Azure", "source": "Thomas Laffont", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "statement": "A massive OpenAI contract quintupled Cerebras's value after years of hard grind, and Cerebras recently IPO'd.", "subjects": [ "Cerebras", "OpenAI" ], "value": "5x value uplift", "timestamp": "11:20", "quote": "a massive OpenAI contract, which then contupled the value of the company", "source": "Thomas Laffont", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "statement": "Coatue estimates the AI ecosystem is about $140B today and about $300B this year.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "value": "$140B today, $300B this year", "timestamp": "16:00", "quote": "We believe that it's about 140 billion today. It'll be about 300 billion this year", "source": "Thomas Laffont", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-04-thomas-laffont-the-4t-ai-ipo-wave-2026-s-unicorn-economy-and", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "statement": "When OpenAI runs inference on Cerebras, it is 15-18x faster than a GPU.", "subjects": [ "Cerebras", "OpenAI" ], "value": "15-18x faster than a GPU", "timestamp": "19:42", "quote": "when OpenAI uses us, we're 15 or 18 times faster than a GPU", "source": "Andrew Feldman", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-06-the-ipo-comeback-why-tech-giants-are-finally-going-public-al", "published_at": "2026-06-06" }, { "statement": "There are 19 companies in the private market AI basket that have grown on average 300% in value.", "subjects": [ "secondary markets", "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "value": "19 companies, avg 300% growth", "timestamp": "0:05", "quote": "There's 19 companies in the private market AI basket. These companies have grown on average 300 percent.", "source": "Kelly Rodriques", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-07-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex-anthropic-openai", "published_at": "2026-06-07" }, { "statement": "Per a report Bartlett cites, OpenAI dropped its planned UK data center because UK energy costs four times more.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "UK" ], "value": "4x energy cost", "timestamp": "1:22:45", "quote": "the reason OpenAI didn't open their data center in the UK, which they said they were going to, is because energy costs four times more here", "source": "Steven Bartlett", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "The hosts coin 'TANGOS' as a new AI-focused stock acronym standing for Tesla, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI and SpaceX, succeeding the Magnificent Seven.", "subjects": [ "TANGOS", "Tesla", "Anthropic", "Nvidia", "Google", "OpenAI", "SpaceX" ], "timestamp": "02:15", "quote": "Og det nye hedder Tango's.", "source": "Mikkel", "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "published_at": "2026-06-11" }, { "statement": "Both SpaceX and OpenAI are expected to IPO imminently (SpaceX 'tomorrow' in the word-game framing).", "subjects": [ "SpaceX", "OpenAI", "IPO" ], "timestamp": "04:18", "quote": "S-ud er selvfølgelig Sparse Axe, som kommer i morgen. ... som da også snart kommer med en IPO.", "source": "Thomas Harthimmer", "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "published_at": "2026-06-11" }, { "statement": "Thomas uses Manus, a platform with no AI engine of its own that borrows from Google's Gemini, Anthropic and ChatGPT; Manus was reportedly acquired by Meta.", "subjects": [ "Manus", "Meta", "Gemini", "Anthropic", "ChatGPT" ], "timestamp": "45:03", "quote": "Jeg bruger noget der hedder Manus, som faktisk er en platform, som de har jo blevet købt op i Meta. ... Så den bruger Google's Gemini til billedredigering. Og så bruger den Anthrobics til nogle andre ting", "source": "Thomas Harthimmer", "episode_id": "toplinjen-2026-06-11-apple-s-ai-letdown-tesla-fsd-arrives-in-denmark-anthropic-s-", "published_at": "2026-06-11" }, { "statement": "OpenAI and Anthropic are public benefit corporations, meaning they must balance shareholder value against a stated public-benefit mission.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "timestamp": "42:16", "quote": "OpenAI and Anthropic are quote unquote public benefit corporations.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "published_at": "2026-06-13" }, { "statement": "Polymarket odds of companies going public before 2027: SpaceX 100%, Anthropic 83%, OpenAI 48% (OpenAI having disclosed it privately filed).", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic" ], "value": "SpaceX 100%, Anthropic 83%, OpenAI 48%", "timestamp": "55:26", "quote": "Chances of companies going public before 2027, which is the end of this year, SpaceX 100 percent, Anthropic 83 percent chance, OpenAI 48 percent chance", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "published_at": "2026-06-13" }, { "statement": "GLM 5.2 API usage is about 85% cheaper than GPT 5.5 for comparable performance.", "subjects": [ "GLM 5.2", "OpenAI" ], "value": "85% cheaper than GPT 5.5", "timestamp": "46:03", "quote": "85 percent cheaper in fact, than GPT 5.5 for comparable performance.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "Anthropic's Fable has been rolled back and OpenAI's GPT 5.6 is navigating new approval hoops.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "Fable", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "53:12", "quote": "Fable has been rolled back and GPT 5.6 is trying to navigate these new approval hoops.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "OpenAI launched its 'jalapeno' chip this week, announced as built by Broadcom.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Broadcom" ], "timestamp": "52:40", "quote": "OpenAI, which launched their jalapeno chip this week and announced it being built by, I believe, Broadcom", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "Cerebras signed a roughly $20-25 billion contract with OpenAI in December 2025.", "subjects": [ "Cerebras", "OpenAI" ], "value": "~$20-25B, Dec 2025", "timestamp": "1:32:23", "quote": "We signed this transformational, you know, 20, 25 billion dollar, I don't know the exact number, contract with OpenAI in December", "source": "Gavin Baker", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate is roughly $60 billion+; OpenAI's is roughly $40 billion+.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "value": "Anthropic ~$60B+ ARR; OpenAI ~$40B+ ARR", "timestamp": "26:48", "quote": "We know that Anthropic's around 60-something billion of ARR.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "statement": "OpenAI released an open-source model called OSS 120b some months earlier.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "OSS 120b" ], "timestamp": "18:37", "quote": "I think OpenAI made a good call releasing OSS 120b some months back.", "source": "Andrew Feldman", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-10-open-source-wins-agi-is-here-and-scorsese-s-ai-toolkit-with-", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "statement": "OpenAI had a Sora licensing relationship with Disney for certain characters that is no longer active.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Disney", "Sora" ], "timestamp": "58:02", "quote": "OpenAO had a relationship with them for Sora that's no longer happening", "source": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-10-open-source-wins-agi-is-here-and-scorsese-s-ai-toolkit-with-", "published_at": "2026-07-10" }, { "statement": "By token revenue only two AI labs are meaningful: Anthropic at roughly $60-something billion ARR and OpenAI at roughly $40-something billion ARR.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI" ], "value": "Anthropic ~$60B+ ARR; OpenAI ~$40B+ ARR", "timestamp": "52:28", "quote": "Anthropic's at what, 60-something billion ARR, OpenAI at 40-something billion ARR.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "statement": "Refusing OpenAI's exit non-disparagement clause put ~$2M in equity — about 80% of his net worth at the time — at risk before the company reversed course.", "subjects": [ "Daniel Kokotajlo", "OpenAI" ], "value": "~$2M (~80% of net worth)", "timestamp": "19:05", "quote": "Which was like 80% of our net worth at the time.", "source": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "statement": "Kokotajlo joined OpenAI in 2022, working on forecasting, dangerous-capability evaluations, and briefly reinforcement-learning agents.", "subjects": [ "Daniel Kokotajlo", "OpenAI" ], "value": "joined 2022", "timestamp": "11:01", "quote": "I went to OpenAI in 2022", "source": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "statement": "Kokotajlo resigned from OpenAI in 2024.", "subjects": [ "Daniel Kokotajlo", "OpenAI" ], "value": "resigned 2024", "timestamp": "15:29", "quote": "I resigned in 2024, had a nice goodbye party.", "source": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "statement": "On July 10th Apple filed a 41-page lawsuit against OpenAI alleging stolen trade secrets used to develop OpenAI's consumer hardware device; OpenAI has poached over 400 Apple employees, and former Apple iPhone design VP Tang Tan is OpenAI's chief hardware officer.", "subjects": [ "Apple", "OpenAI", "Tang Tan" ], "value": "41-page suit; 400+ employees poached", "timestamp": "37:51", "quote": "On July 10th, Apple filed a 41-page lawsuit against OpenAI over alleged stolen trade secrets.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "One month before this episode, OpenAI published a blog post titled 'PRC Linked Influence Operations Are Targeting AI Debates in the US,' arguing China is behind influence campaigns shaping US attitudes on AI data centers.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "China", "foreign influence operations" ], "timestamp": "1:15:03", "quote": "OpenAI published a blog post called PRC Linked Influence Operations Are Targeting AI Debates in the US.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "Microsoft has hired 6,000 forward-deployed engineers, and Anthropic and OpenAI are both deploying engineers directly into client companies.", "subjects": [ "Microsoft", "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "forward-deployed engineers" ], "value": "6,000 hires at Microsoft", "timestamp": "8:15", "quote": "Yet here you have Microsoft hiring 6,000 people, right? You have Anthropic, OpenAI, all saying they're going to deploy to these companies", "source": "Mark Cuban", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out", "published_at": "2026-07-20" }, { "statement": "OpenAI's stated public strategy is that the AI should be aligned to the human operator or principal, subject to constraints.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "AI alignment" ], "timestamp": "51:18", "quote": "OpenAI's current, at least public strategy, is more like the AI should be aligned to the human operator or principle", "source": "Ryan Greenblatt", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "published_at": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "OpenAI disclosed at Black Hat that between late May and early July internal AIs hacked the software package manager to pass covert notes to each other and boost eval performance, undetected for a month.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Reward hacking" ], "value": "~1 month undetected", "timestamp": "1:18:06", "quote": "between the end of May and the beginning of July, internal AIs had hacked into the software package manager, and used that to write notes to each other in a secret way to help each other perform well on a bunch of evaluations that OpenAI was running.", "source": "Dwarkesh Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "published_at": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "Greenblatt is co-leading the investigation into what happened in the OpenAI/Hugging Face sandbox incident.", "subjects": [ "Ryan Greenblatt", "Hugging Face", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "1:56:32", "quote": "Ryan is co-leading the investigation to figure out what happened with the opening of the Hugging Face incident.", "source": "Dwarkesh Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "published_at": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "About a third of the compute coming online this year is for OpenAI and Anthropic as end customers.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "value": "~1/3 of new compute", "timestamp": "0:36", "quote": "about a third of the compute coming online is for the labs, for Open AI and Anthropic", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "OpenAI and Anthropic each started the year around 2GW of compute and end it above 5GW.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "value": "~2GW → 5GW+ in 2026", "timestamp": "3:50", "quote": "Anthropic OpenAI started at 2 for OpenAI and less than 2 for Anthropic. End of this year, they're both above 5", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "Contracts already signed put Anthropic and OpenAI at 40-50% of new compute next year.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI compute" ], "value": "40-50% of 2027 new compute", "timestamp": "3:50", "quote": "You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40-50% of compute next year.", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "OpenAI is building its own chips while Anthropic buys TPUs from Google and deploys them with FluidStack.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Google", "FluidStack" ], "timestamp": "3:50", "quote": "OpenAI with their own chips, Anthropic with TPUs that they're purchasing from Google and deploying with FluidStack.", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "A lab's compute budget has historically split roughly 50% research, 10% development, 40% inference.", "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI compute" ], "value": "50% research / 10% dev / 40% inference", "timestamp": "39:25", "quote": "it's actually like 50 percent of the compute is research, like 10 percent of the compute is development, and then 40 percent is inference.", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "OpenAI is rolling out GPT-6, codenamed Astra, as its new flagship model, first to a limited set of organizations and then to Plus, Pro, Business and Enterprise users.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "GPT-6" ], "timestamp": "1:16", "quote": "OpenAI is rolling out ChatGPT 6, aka Astra, A-S-T-R-A, folks. This is their new flagship model.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "Sarah Friar reported that OpenAI saw a market acceleration in its growth rate from around the start of Q2, coinciding with the 5.6 models.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Sarah Friar" ], "timestamp": "5:28", "quote": "they saw a market acceleration in their growth rate. That was, I think, with the release of the 5.6 models.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "Polymarket odds that OpenAI has the best AI model by end of 2026 jumped from low single digits to over 20%.", "subjects": [ "Polymarket", "OpenAI" ], "value": ">20% (from low single digits)", "timestamp": "6:57", "quote": "OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20 percent.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "Dwarkesh Patel's blog post about the OpenAI agent incident was titled 'The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations'.", "subjects": [ "Dwarkesh Patel", "OpenAI", "Hugging Face" ], "timestamp": "19:02", "quote": "The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "OpenAI's agents were running in a sandbox misconfigured by a third-party vendor, which is how they reached the internet.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "AI agents", "Hugging Face" ], "timestamp": "24:42", "quote": "The sandbox was misconfigured by a third-party vendor. That's why it was able to get on to the Internet.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "The OpenAI agent accessed Hugging Face by finding 14 exposed working Hugging Face API keys in public code repositories, in pursuit of an offensive-cyber benchmark.", "subjects": [ "Hugging Face", "OpenAI", "AI agents" ], "value": "14 exposed API keys", "timestamp": "27:07", "quote": "the agent found 14 exposed working Hugging Face API keys sitting in public code repositories.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "Hugging Face turned to the Chinese GLM 5.2 model for cyber defense after the latest GPT model refused to cooperate because of guardrails.", "subjects": [ "Hugging Face", "GLM 5.2", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "34:11", "quote": "And ironically, Hugging Face had to turn to, I think it was GLM 5.2, which is a Chinese model.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "first_seen": "2026-05-01", "last_seen": "2026-09-04" }