{ "name": "China", "type": "place", "episodes": [ "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-04-christian-apologist-the-truth-about-christianity-and-why-ath", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "all-in-2026-06-10-senators-john-fetterman-and-dave-mccormick-bipartisanship-mo", "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap", "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "all-in-2026-08-29-nvidia-s-historic-quarter-saas-comeback-bessent-vs-druck-ame", "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban" ], "claims": [ { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The simplest and surest path to a no-conflict detente with China is bi-directional economic entanglement.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "Donald Trump" ], "timestamp": "5:53", "quote": "the simplest and surest path to a no conflict detente with China is economic entanglement", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Behind closed doors the US and China are figuring out how to divide up the world into a bipolar construction.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "5:53", "quote": "I think behind closed doors, they're probably just figuring out how to divide the pie.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Whether the US and China share in a growing pie or fight over a static one determines whether they avoid the Thucydides-trap conflict.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "3:11", "quote": "Is there a way we can chart an economic and cooperative path that doesn't involve eating each other and involves sharing in a bigger pie?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "claim": "Selling China the latest chips is irrelevant because Chinese models are already as competitive as US models without the highest-end chips.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "Nvidia" ], "timestamp": "20:16", "quote": "I think that the Chinese models are as competitive as these US models, and they've learned to make these models without having the highest end chips.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "claim": "The US should just sell China whatever chips it can, since more economic cooperation brings more peace.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "Nvidia" ], "timestamp": "20:45", "quote": "We probably should just sell whatever we can at this point.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The US should sell chips to China so Nvidia wins and Huawei is denied the oxygen to emerge as a chip rival.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Nvidia", "Huawei", "China" ], "timestamp": "24:34", "quote": "the reason we should sell the chips is we want Nvidia to win. We do not want to give enough oxygen for Huawei to then all of a sudden emerge", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "As both the US and China build out their own fabs, Taiwan may matter much less from a security and economic standpoint.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "21:08", "quote": "as they build out their own semiconductor capital equipment systems and their own fabs, does Taiwan really matter?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Letting technology diffuse globally raises everyone's standard of living and lowers the probability of conflict; restricting it to one side increases it.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "23:22", "quote": "if you let technology diffuse and proliferate, everyone benefits and conflict indices go down.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "claim": "Taiwan is a non-issue and China and Taiwan will reconcile.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "26:11", "quote": "I think that this is a nonsense issue. I think China and Taiwan will reconcile.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "claim": "Elon Musk is the greatest salesman in the world, which is how Tesla operates in China with no local partnership.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Elon Musk", "Tesla", "China" ], "timestamp": "11:46", "quote": "I think Elon is the greatest salesman in the world. That's how.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Jason", "claim": "Cheap $20-30k Chinese cars would hollow out and end the US automotive industry overnight.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "Tesla" ], "timestamp": "12:29", "quote": "If we had $20,000, $30,000 cars from China, it would be the end of the US automotive industry overnight.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "It is starting to feel like there may be a CCP-funded campaign against AI and data centers in America — logical for China but bad for America.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.55, "subjects": [ "China", "AI backlash" ], "timestamp": "12:27", "quote": "it is starting to feel or seem like there may be a CCP funded campaign against AI and data centers in America", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "There is a long history of foreign state actors fueling anti-technology sentiment in competitor nations (going back to KGB-era techniques), and that is part of today's AI backlash.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "AI backlash", "China" ], "timestamp": "19:04", "quote": "This is not just some conspiracy theory. There are plenty of great books about this", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "You can't slow AI down: like the post-Manhattan-Project arms race, once proliferation begins there is no stopping it.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "23:06", "quote": "When the proliferation began, there was no stopping it", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "If the US tries to slow AI it loses the balance that proliferation provides, and a world where only one power (or China) has advanced, scaled AI is not healthy.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "23:10", "quote": "if we do try and slow down AI, we kind of lose this moment of balance that's necessary", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "It's actually good that China is less than nine months behind the US, because near-parity enables a détente where both sides can stand down.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "28:05", "quote": "I think it's actually good that China is less than nine months behind us", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The US and China should agree on KYC for AI models and review training runs so a crazy person can't create a biological weapon — a reasonable ground rule.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "29:08", "quote": "we should probably do some sort of KYC so some crazy person doesn't create some biological weapon", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "Selling deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China lowers the odds China develops its own (more power-hungry) chip ecosystem and is the best path to keeping America ahead and in control of AI.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Nvidia", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:36:16", "quote": "selling in deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China, lowers the odds of them developing their own alternative ecosystem", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "The Trump-Xi summit did not produce the grand de-escalation deal some hoped for; it's no surprise Putin is with Xi afterward, and the US-China rivalry will keep escalating.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "Trump", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:33:40", "quote": "the grand deal, the big deal that I would say reduces or de-escalates tension, probably didn't manifest as some had hoped it would", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The Trump-Xi trip was successful and productive behind closed doors — the real win was alignment on the geopolitical sequence of what happens next, not the public deliverables.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "Trump", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:35:16", "quote": "I think the biggest thing that they probably got alignment on is just geopolitically the tic-tac-toe of what has to happen next", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Trump's greatest superpower is bonding with dictators and monarchs; he has probably green-lit Xi on Taiwan as long as it doesn't happen during his administration.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.55, "subjects": [ "Trump", "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:38:03", "quote": "the greatest superpower Trump has is his ability to bond with dictators, monarchs, royal families, golf monarchies", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "The US can leverage oil to deter China: with Venezuelan, American, and Brazilian oil cut off and the Strait closed, China would be left with only Russian oil — unable to fight a war against the US-led bloc.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "Strait of Hormuz" ], "timestamp": "1:39:05", "quote": "good luck fighting a war with just Russian oil against us, Japan, South Korea, Australia, UK, France, Germany, the world", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "Dictatorships are simultaneously enormously strong and enormously weak — weak because illegitimate and untested, strong because they control the state apparatus — and this duality is the master frame for the whole conversation.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "Iran", "China" ], "timestamp": "6:50", "quote": "Dictators are enormously strong and enormously weak at the same time. This is actually like a good frame for our entire conversation, which is to say, we have to be able to hold two competing ideas in the same vessel and both can be true.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Decoder", "reported_by": "Darren Farber", "claim": "China is not a super-empowered state but rather weak and illegitimate, with high tension between the party plenary and leadership.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "18:29", "quote": "Decoder is a well regarded historian on China and has a theory on how China is not a super empowered just by virtue of how illegitimate and how weak it is and how tense the plenary and the party is.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "China's military suffers from low trust — lack of jointness, internal and missileer-crew corruption, and senior leadership turned over three or four times in three years — versus the US strength of esprit de corps and legitimacy.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "Department of War" ], "timestamp": "18:29", "quote": "They have turned over their senior military leadership three or four times in the last three years. That is not a high trust environment.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "The central strategic question is whether China's enormous industrial magazine depth can overcome its institutional weakness — which is why the US is racing to industrialize and add its own magazine depth.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "magazine depth" ], "timestamp": "18:29", "quote": "the calculus becomes, can the magazine depth overcome their institutional weakness? It's a good question.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "China's fundamental illegitimacy — Xi cannot trust who in his standing committee is on his side — is America's edge, amplified because US clandestine recruitment inside China has been meaningfully rebuilt.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "Xi Jinping" ], "timestamp": "21:34", "quote": "Xi doesn't know who's on our side, in his standing committee or on his side. Every day he wakes up with the thought of, maybe I need to kill someone off. That is our edge.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "The United States is the global 'bug out point' — even members of Xi's standing committee have relatives running successful businesses in the US and a plan to flee there — which is a core American strength.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "Xi Jinping" ], "timestamp": "22:18", "quote": "every Chinese person in the standing committee has a relative somewhere in the United States, how many degrees removed, that owns a small business, that is doing well, is able to stay and do what they want, is able to fundamentally live free.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "Because illegitimate power structures inevitably collapse (as the USSR did suddenly despite looking strong), both China and Iran will fall within his lifetime.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "Iran" ], "timestamp": "22:18", "quote": "I believe in our lifetime, China will fall. I believe in our lifetime, Iran will fall.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "Adversaries successfully weaponize American freedoms — especially free speech amplified on social media into disinformation — forcing the question of whether the US must degrade some freedoms to protect itself.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "23:45", "quote": "are we going to have to degrade a portion of our freedoms in order to protect ourselves? This is going to be the real hard part against a very motivated and sociopathic adversary that's illegitimate.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "reported_by": "Darren Farber", "claim": "Xi Jinping is a risk-taker.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "He said that she's a risk taker.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "China most likely takes Taiwan without firing a shot — a KMT (rapprochement/accommodation party) election win would let the CCP achieve reunification by accommodation, which fits their strategy and avoids hard terrain and global ostracism.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "I believe a bullet may never need to be fired in order for China to get what they want. I think that's the more likely outcome. It keeps with their strategy. Why go?", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "claim": "If Taiwan were taken militarily, China would most likely not stop there — other countries with historical grievances, especially Japan, would be next.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "It would not stop at Taiwan, most likely.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "China is leading the open-weight movement, not open source, and that distinction matters.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China", "open weight models", "open source AI" ], "timestamp": "40:09", "quote": "They're leading the open weight movement. It's not open source. The distinction is important.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Banning open weights in the US would mostly put the US on an island: cloud providers would stop running open models domestically while the rest of the world keeps benefiting from their cost and customization advantages.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "open weight models", "open source AI", "China" ], "timestamp": "51:19", "quote": "Sure, you'll put the US on an island.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "Bill Gurley", "claim": "If China succeeds at cheaper training and the US bans open source, the rest of the world ends up running on Chinese models.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "open source AI", "open weight models" ], "timestamp": "54:20", "quote": "same exact conclusion, which is the rest of the world ends up running on Chinese models if they're able to succeed at what you just said", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "claim": "Chinese AV manufacturing capability in quality and cost is currently unrivaled, and the Western hemisphere needs but does not yet have an equivalent low-cost contract manufacturer.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "China", "self-driving" ], "timestamp": "33:53", "quote": "The Chinese capabilities in terms of manufacturing, both in terms of quality and cost at this point is unrivaled.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-06-03-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-s-bet-on-avs-ai-and-building-a-super-", "published_at": "2026-06-03" }, { "holder": "John Lennox", "claim": "The creeping advance of AI-enabled totalitarianism, already rolled out in China, could engulf the West, which differs only in not yet having a central government imposing the technology.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "totalitarianism", "artificial intelligence", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:13:27", "quote": "I think the creeping advance of totalitarianism is something that could engulf us all.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-04-christian-apologist-the-truth-about-christianity-and-why-ath", "published_at": "2026-06-04" }, { "holder": "Nick Hanauer", "claim": "The neoliberal free-trade promise failed: it flooded Western markets with cheap Chinese goods and did not make life better in the UK or US.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "neoliberalism", "China", "free trade" ], "timestamp": "35:50", "quote": "The neoliberals promised that free trade was going to make all of us richer, and what it did is it flooded our markets with cheap stuff from China.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-08-death-of-the-middle-class-billionaire-vs-entrepreneur-debate", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "The US created extraordinary economic value in the capital-light software era while simultaneously dismantling its critical physical infrastructure and offshoring it to China, leaving supply chains dangerously fragile.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "reshoring", "China", "critical minerals" ], "timestamp": "0:03", "quote": "we were literally tearing down all of our critical infrastructure and moving it overseas to China. So we were really doubling down on that capital light mentality.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "China has an absolute grip on critical minerals, and it will take at least 10 years, probably 20, for the US to close that gap.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "China", "critical minerals", "rare earths" ], "timestamp": "0:03", "quote": "China has an absolute grip. It's absolute on all of these critical minerals. And it's going to take at least 10 years, probably 20 to catch up.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "Rare earths are geologically abundant and new extraction technology will unlock large supplies; the binding constraint is Chinese monopoly on processing/conversion, not the ore itself.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "rare earths", "China" ], "timestamp": "18:07", "quote": "rare earths are everywhere. And the technology to extract rare earths is going to allow us to have a huge abundance of them. But the problem is processing them.\nThat's the problem. The Chinese have all the technological know-how to convert what you take out of the ground", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "Offshoring factories to China in the 2000s destroyed blue-collar craft labor and created unintended consequences including fentanyl and wealth gaps.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "reshoring", "China" ], "timestamp": "20:10", "quote": "We tore down all our factories and moved them to China. And who got killed by that? It was the blue collar craft labor, created all kinds of unintended consequences, fentanyl, wealth gaps.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "John Fetterman", "claim": "A moratorium on data centers is a China-first policy, and AI is an incredible opportunity rather than a scourge.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "data centers", "China", "AI" ], "timestamp": "2:47", "quote": "moratorium for data centers, for me, that's a China first kinds of policy for that. I'm going to continue to push back that. I'm not going to describe that as a scourge. I'm going to describe that as an incredible new opportunity.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-senators-john-fetterman-and-dave-mccormick-bipartisanship-mo", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "John Fetterman", "claim": "America, not China, should build the 'chassis' of AI; much of the opposition to AI and data centers is funded by groups aligned with the CCP.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI", "China", "data centers" ], "timestamp": "17:09", "quote": "it can come from us or it can come from China, whose side are you're going to be in? And a lot of the people that oppose that, now a lot of that opposition is funded by a lot of these groups that are aligned with CCP.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-senators-john-fetterman-and-dave-mccormick-bipartisanship-mo", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "Dave McCormick", "claim": "Opposition to data centers is largely driven by misinformation from China and outside forces, plus genuine lack of understanding, and a clearer 'covenant' with communities on energy, water, tax base, and infrastructure is needed.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "data centers", "China" ], "timestamp": "30:34", "quote": "There's enormous misinformation, and I think that misinformation is largely being driven by China and outside forces.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-senators-john-fetterman-and-dave-mccormick-bipartisanship-mo", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "John Fetterman", "claim": "With the US only six to eight months ahead of China, his party's push for a data-center moratorium would hand the AI race to China.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "data centers", "China", "AI" ], "timestamp": "35:08", "quote": "you described that we have six to eight months ahead of China, right?... So now, my party is driving for a moratorium for data centers. I mean, do you think China doesn't love that?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-senators-john-fetterman-and-dave-mccormick-bipartisanship-mo", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "claim": "The AI power buildout is mandatory for the US — without it the country forfeits AI-driven scientific breakthroughs, robotics productivity, and national security.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI data centers", "China" ], "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "this is an absolutely mandatory build out that we have to do, otherwise we're going to fall behind.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "published_at": "2026-06-12" }, { "holder": "Oleg Nodelman", "claim": "Radiopharmaceuticals are a rare real moat in biotech because generics avoid the class and the radioisotope supply chain is off-limits to China.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "radiopharmaceuticals", "China" ], "timestamp": "27:18", "quote": "Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off limits to China. So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "published_at": "2026-06-12" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Aktis carries real downside (50-75%) from China replication or new solid-tumor modalities, though Lilly could bid on it within six months on a good readout.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:01:01", "quote": "there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 50-75% if they get a bad readout or China or some new modality comes out.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "published_at": "2026-06-12" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Anthropic's restrictions on using its models for genomics work are forcing companies like Ohalo to move to open-source models, the best of which are Chinese, ultimately advantaging China.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "open source AI models", "China" ], "timestamp": "5:24", "quote": "the restrictions that Anthropic and others are putting upon themselves and upon the industry is forcing a lot of companies to go and get open-source Chinese models and run them.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "published_at": "2026-06-13" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "You cannot stop AI through political or social action; doing so only hands an unfair advantage to others (China) because the AI does not go away.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "open source AI models", "China" ], "timestamp": "7:57", "quote": "You can't just stop AI as much as everyone says AI is doomsday, by stopping AI or trying to stop AI through this political action and social you know kind of behavior. You are fundamentally going to give someone else the advantage because the AI isn't going to go away.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "published_at": "2026-06-13" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "China smoothing global energy consumption has kept oil sub-$100 and a lid on CPI, but if China exhausts reserves and returns to the spot market for an extra 3 million barrels a day, oil could spike to $150-200.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "inflation", "Iran war" ], "timestamp": "1:08:57", "quote": "If China somehow runs out of reserves and they need to go back into the spot market and buy an extra 3 million barrels a day, there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "published_at": "2026-06-13" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "An immense amount of distillation has happened and is for sure how GLM 5.2 got so close to the frontier so cheaply.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "GLM 5.2", "distillation", "China" ], "timestamp": "47:01", "quote": "for sure distillation has happened.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Travis Kalanick", "claim": "Distillation is a cheat sheet that lets other models catch up to the frontier.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "distillation", "China" ], "timestamp": "48:08", "quote": "It's a cheat sheet for other models to catch up.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The US is hobbling itself in the AI race and will lose if it keeps doing so.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI" ], "timestamp": "58:16", "quote": "We are going to lose if we keep doing this stuff to ourselves.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "China is engaged in a strong indigenization push to prop up Huawei as its national chip champion.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "Huawei" ], "timestamp": "58:29", "quote": "China is engaged in a strong indigenization push right now. They want to prop up Huawei as the national champion.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The US must be pro-export because China will reach the global market within one or two years, costing us the chance to own it.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "59:52", "quote": "we have to be pro-export because China is going to be there within one or two years", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Chinese-model censorship is real but not a fatal problem, because American companies can fork and fix it.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "GLM 5.2", "Perplexity", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:00:49", "quote": "it's not a fatal problem. It's something that American companies can fix when they take an open source model and fork it", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Once an open-source model is forked and run entirely on US hardware with no data flowing back to China, it effectively stops being a 'Chinese' model from a security standpoint.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "export controls" ], "timestamp": "54:56", "quote": "once a model is open-source, it stops being Chinese in a way, right? Because you can now take that model, you can fork it, you can create your own version. You run it in an American data center on your own hardware. There's no packets going back to China.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Banning Chinese open-source AI model imports would isolate the US, since the rest of the world will keep using open models, subjecting American enterprises to a costlier 'token tax.'", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "export controls" ], "timestamp": "55:54", "quote": "if you were to do something like ban open-source in the United States, you'll put the United States on an island. The rest of the world is not going to follow suit.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "If US open-source AI models prove better than Chinese ones, the market should decide adoption without an import ban; the US should also weigh restricting Chinese robots given backdoor-security risk.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "China", "export controls" ], "timestamp": "56:53", "quote": "if American models, open models are better than Chinese open models, they will win and people will want to adopt them. So if what you're saying is true, that our open models are better or getting better, are going to surpass the Chinese ones, leave that to the market to decide.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-03-ai-sovereignty-wars-palantir-nvidia-deal-scotus-birthright-r", "published_at": "2026-07-03" }, { "holder": "Neil deGrasse Tyson", "claim": "The US only revived interest in returning to the Moon because China announced lunar ambitions, not for scientific or economic reasons.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Artemis program", "China", "NASA" ], "timestamp": "1:03:25", "quote": "No, it's geopolitical. China says they're going to the moon.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-09-neil-degrasse-tyson-on-aliens-simulation-theory-and-what-hap", "published_at": "2026-07-09" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Chinese labs (like OpenAI and Meta before them) follow a pattern of staying open to catch the frontier, then going closed to capture the value for themselves.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "open source vs frontier models" ], "timestamp": "56:03", "quote": "the tactic is you stay open until you catch the frontier, you get close to it, and then there's a really compelling incentive to go closed because you want to capture all the value for yourself.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "claim": "China restricting its open-source models is more chess-play than real threat, since it would hurt China far more than the US, which can spin up its own open-source models (Reflection, NVIDIA).", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "AI sovereignty" ], "timestamp": "58:08", "quote": "I think this is probably more chess playing by China than actual threats because it would hurt them a lot more than it would hurt us.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Brad Gerstner", "claim": "GLM 5.2 carries watermarks from Anthropic's 'mythos' model proving distillation, and the US government should (and will) take steps against distillation.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "GLM" ], "timestamp": "58:08", "quote": "GLM 5.2 has watermarks from mythos all over it, right? So we know they were distilling", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "holder": "Chinese Communist Party", "reported_by": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "The CCP's mainstream view is captured by the slogan 'the rise of the East and the decline of the West' — a euphemism for China overtaking the United States.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Chinese Communist Party", "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:22:22", "quote": "which is the rise of the East and the decline of the West", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Youth discontent and unemployment are seen by Xi as the lesser problem, subordinate to national economic self-reliance and dominance in frontier technologies.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:01:52", "quote": "But in Xi Jinping's calculus, they see it as the lesser problem against the greater problem, which is national economic self-reliance and national economic dominance in the driving technologies of the future.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Xi Jinping", "reported_by": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Xi's answer to a disgruntled public is that they should 'eat bitterness' as the party has in earlier hard periods.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:01:52", "quote": "what you need to do is to learn how to chuk koo, which is eat bitterness", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "American policy thinking too often lets hope substitute for analysis about China's slowdown — the problem is not fixed.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:11:37", "quote": "Sometimes hope becomes a substitute for analysis and strategy in this country", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "China remains formidable, and doubly so under Xi with his surveillance apparatus.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "China", "Xi Jinping" ], "timestamp": "1:11:37", "quote": "China is formidable. And particularly under a leader like Xi Jinping, it's doubly formidable.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Ezra Klein", "claim": "The US keeps Chinese electric vehicles out because they are too good, not because they are bad — a reversal of the old copying-and-IP-theft frame.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "electric vehicles" ], "timestamp": "1:13:34", "quote": "America is keeping Chinese electric vehicles out, not because they're bad cars, it's because they're such good cars.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "China's strategy is to use industrial subsidy to destroy global competition, then restore prices once alternative production has disappeared.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "Made in China 2025" ], "timestamp": "1:13:58", "quote": "we will, through our level of industrial subsidy, ultimately destroy the world's competition and opposition", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Industrial subsidy at China's current order of magnitude cannot be sustained forever — it is currently financed out of Chinese household savings.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "Made in China 2025" ], "timestamp": "1:13:58", "quote": "But industrial subsidy, which is of an order of magnitude, not seen in economic history before, cannot be sustained forever.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Tariffs are a perfectly logical response to Chinese industrial policy, because the alternative is letting China dominate every industrial sector.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:17:09", "quote": "It is a perfectly logical response to the challenge which China's industrial policy, which exists on the basis of massive industrial subsidies poses.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Ezra Klein", "claim": "China's dominance in rare earths and magnets was so complete that it could break Trump's tariff policy and trade war simply by threatening US access.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China", "United States", "rare earths" ], "timestamp": "1:17:42", "quote": "they were so dominant in it that they were able to break Trump's tariff policy, break his trade war by simply threatening to remove our access to their rare earths and magnets", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "The Chinese are disciplined masters of economic statecraft who understand precisely where their leverage lies, because their political culture is dominated by engineers.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China", "rare earths" ], "timestamp": "1:18:01", "quote": "The Chinese are highly intelligent, highly disciplined masters of economic statecraft, and they know where leverage lies.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "The right US-China framework is 'managed strategic competition' — accept the competition and manage it, because unmanaged competition ends in crisis, conflict and war.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "managed strategic competition" ], "timestamp": "1:29:32", "quote": "what I call managed strategic competition. Except the reality of the competition and manage it, it's far better than unmanaged strategic competition, which can end in crisis, conflict and war.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "claim": "Any Chinese move on Taiwan would force Trump to choose between acting and looking weak, which he will not tolerate — putting the situation in dangerous territory.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Donald Trump", "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:37:37", "quote": "To act against Taiwan would be to cause President Trump to look weak.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Pat Gelsinger", "claim": "A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could brown out the island and its fabs without a shot being fired, with economic impact greater than the Great Depression.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "semiconductors", "China" ], "timestamp": "15:13", "quote": "The economic impact of a brownout of Taiwan is greater than the Great Depression in the world.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "published_at": "2026-07-15" }, { "holder": "Pat Gelsinger", "claim": "The US needs far more resilient semiconductor supply chains because China's intentions toward Taiwan have been clear over a sustained period.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China", "semiconductors" ], "timestamp": "17:10", "quote": "Their intentions have been clear over a sustained period of time. We need more resilient supply chains for it.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "published_at": "2026-07-15" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "China is behind influence campaigns shaping US attitudes against AI data centers, because stopping the US from building AI infrastructure is a way for China to win the AI race.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "China", "data centers", "foreign influence operations" ], "timestamp": "1:15:03", "quote": "If they can stop us from building this necessary infrastructure, then that's a way for China to win the AI race.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "Robert Pape", "claim": "China does not want global instability, but also does not want Iran to come out of this crushed, and is unlikely to insert itself forcefully.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "Iran" ], "timestamp": "1:32:04", "quote": "I think China does not want there to be global instability.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Xi Jinping", "reported_by": "Robert Pape", "claim": "Trump risks falling into a 'Thucydides trap' by launching a preventive war against China in Asia while positioned as a declining power.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "Donald Trump", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:32:42", "quote": "are you going to fall into what he called the Thrucidity Strap? Meaning, are you going to launch a preventive war against China in Asia?", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-23-urgent-update-iran-war-expert-70-chance-us-sends-troops-to-i", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "There was probably a quid pro quo behind China's sharp reduction in oil imports after the May meetings with Trump and US CEOs.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.5, "subjects": [ "China", "Donald Trump" ], "timestamp": "1:03:56", "quote": "So I'm pretty sure there's a quid pro quo.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "claim": "China has a comprehensive, thoughtful national energy policy — including nuclear and good relations with suppliers — that the United States lacks.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "China", "United States", "energy" ], "timestamp": "1:03:56", "quote": "And their energy policy, actually, when I read it, I weep because I wish my country had one.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "claim": "Because the US public does not want to fight a war over the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will effectively stop showing up as a counterbalancing military power in Asia.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:20:51", "quote": "the United States will not show up in Asia.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The safety regulation the US labs advocate for slows them down far more than it slows open-source Chinese models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "China" ], "timestamp": "16:03", "quote": "This regulation that they advocate for is actually slowing down the labs a lot more than it slows down sort of the open source Chinese language models.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "China will eventually hockey-stick its compute build because scaling manufacturing quickly is what it is best at.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "37:01", "quote": "China is definitely going to hockey stick if there's anything China's really good at is scaling manufacturing really, really quickly.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "If China's compute stock really is that far behind by the time automated research arrives, US export controls will have been a notable policy success.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "Export controls", "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "38:37", "quote": "So, if that ends up being the case, that would have worked. I think that's actually a notable success.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "If takeoff is slower than the fast-RSI scenario implies, Chinese subsidies mean China catches up drastically on semiconductors and therefore on compute.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "China", "Export controls", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "39:25", "quote": "if takeoff is not as fast as you're implying, but actually takes longer, then ultimately China will catch up drastically on the semiconductor side", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "China is far more optimistic about AI than the US (~80% vs ~30% on 'more beneficial than harmful'), and that optimism gap is the biggest risk to the US winning the AI race.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "China", "Nvidia" ], "timestamp": "5:00", "quote": "China is over 80%. meaning they pull on the question, do you think AI will be more beneficial than harmful?", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-08-29-nvidia-s-historic-quarter-saas-comeback-bessent-vs-druck-ame", "published_at": "2026-08-29" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "Jensen will become the leading open-source provider in America and catch up to and blow past the Chinese models by the end of 2027.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Nvidia", "Jensen Huang", "China", "open source" ], "timestamp": "45:22", "quote": "He's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models, I think, by the end of 2027", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The anti-data-center decel movement is organized and largely funded by foreign actors, and Abbott and Shapiro are reacting to faulty data; walking communities through the actual upside shifts sentiment by 30-40 points.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "data centers", "China", "Josh Shapiro", "Greg Abbott" ], "timestamp": "54:39", "quote": "We're able to increasingly see that de-sell movement is organized in large part and then funded by foreign actors.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The apparent consensus against data centers is manufactured by small numbers of bot accounts brigading influential people, not real public opinion.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "data centers", "China", "X" ], "timestamp": "56:06", "quote": "And the consensus is not that people don't like data centers. It's that a bunch of bots are telling influential people that people don't like data centers.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The high-school AI-literacy pilot modules read like safetyist doomer lingo designed to teach kids to be suspicious of AI rather than to use it, a 'Doomer Academy' that will make US kids less competitive than Chinese kids learning AI in K-12.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Zohran Mamdani", "AI in education", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:12:15", "quote": "It sounds like they're going to put them through Doomer Academy, quite frankly.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "The biggest motive for the Venezuela deal may be keeping the oil out of Russia's and China's sweetheart arrangements; its legitimacy depends on whether ordinary Venezuelans benefit rather than a corrupt elite.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Venezuela", "Russia", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:24:50", "quote": "The biggest motivating factor may be keeping this oil away from the sweetheart deal for Russia and China.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "predictions": [ { "holder": "Marc Benioff", "prediction": "China and Taiwan will reconcile and Taiwan is a non-issue.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "26:11", "quote": "I think China and Taiwan will reconcile.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Jason", "prediction": "Cheap $20-30k Chinese cars in the US would end the US automotive industry overnight.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "Tesla" ], "timestamp": "12:29", "quote": "If we had $20,000, $30,000 cars from China, it would be the end of the US automotive industry overnight.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "prediction": "Both China and Iran will fall within Farber's lifetime, because fundamentally illegitimate power structures inevitably collapse (as the Soviet Union did).", "timeframe": "within Farber's lifetime", "subjects": [ "China", "Iran" ], "timestamp": "22:18", "quote": "I believe in our lifetime, China will fall. I believe in our lifetime, Iran will fall.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "prediction": "China will most likely achieve control of Taiwan without firing a shot, via a KMT (accommodation/rapprochement) election win rather than military invasion.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "I believe a bullet may never need to be fired in order for China to get what they want. I think that's the more likely outcome.", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "prediction": "If China takes Taiwan militarily, it will not stop there — other countries with historical grievances, especially Japan, would be targeted next.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "If Taiwan is overtaken in a military exercise, is there any doubt that these other countries that have real historical beasts will be next?", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Darren Farber", "prediction": "The defining hard problem of the era will be how much of its own freedoms the US must 'fence in' or degrade to prevent adversaries from weaponizing them via information warfare.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "Department of War" ], "timestamp": "23:45", "quote": "I think the real issue of our time will be, as they use these freedoms against us, how will we have to fence them in to prevent them from being completely polluted?", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "holder": "Bill Gurley", "prediction": "If China succeeds at cheaper training and the US bans open source, the rest of the world will end up running on Chinese models.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "open source AI", "open weight models" ], "timestamp": "54:20", "quote": "the rest of the world ends up running on Chinese models if they're able to succeed at what you just said", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-29-anthropic-s-digital-god-pope-vs-ai-job-loss-narrative-flips-", "published_at": "2026-05-29" }, { "holder": "Dan Dreyfus", "prediction": "It will take 10 to 20 years before the US can close the gap with China on critical minerals supply.", "timeframe": "10 to 20 years", "subjects": [ "critical minerals", "China", "rare earths" ], "timestamp": "0:03", "quote": "it's going to take at least 10 years, probably 20 to catch up.", "due": "2046-06-10", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "If China exhausts its reserves and returns to the spot market for ~3 million extra barrels a day, oil could rise well past $100, to between $150 and $200 a barrel.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "inflation", "Iran war" ], "timestamp": "1:08:57", "quote": "there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-13-anthropic-s-fable-backlash-nationalizing-ai-inflation-heats-", "published_at": "2026-06-13" }, { "holder": "z.ai founder", "prediction": "China will have Fable-level open-weight capability before Q1 2027.", "timeframe": "before Q1 2027", "subjects": [ "z.ai", "China", "Fable" ], "timestamp": "55:40", "quote": "the founder of z.ai, he said that before Q1, they'll have Fable level capability. I believe them.", "due": "2027-01-01", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "China will reach the global AI market within one or two years, and the US will regret not exporting to own it first.", "timeframe": "within one or two years", "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "timestamp": "59:52", "quote": "we have to be pro-export because China is going to be there within one or two years", "due": "2028-06-26", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "China will package Huawei chips and Huawei-optimized models as 'AI in a box' and sell it globally at a fraction of the cost.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "Huawei" ], "timestamp": "58:29", "quote": "they call it AI in a box, they're going to sell it at a fraction of the cost globally.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "prediction": "The US will lose the AI race if it keeps imposing self-inflicted restrictions on its own companies.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI" ], "timestamp": "58:16", "quote": "We are going to lose if we keep doing this stuff to ourselves.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "prediction": "China will continue to run lower growth as the deliberate trade-off for its supply-side, national-security-driven industrial strategy, with rising youth unemployment and disenchantment.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "Xi Jinping" ], "timestamp": "57:37", "quote": "So we are likely to see continued lower growth in pursuit of these national economic industrial policy, national security objectives in the economy with this trade-off.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "prediction": "China's unprecedented industrial subsidy cannot be sustained indefinitely — the financing constraint eventually binds.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "1:13:58", "quote": "But they cannot sustain it indefinitely.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "Kevin Rudd", "prediction": "If China took Taiwan, Japan may conclude it is time to go nuclear, and South Korea would follow.", "timeframe": "conditional on a Chinese takeover of Taiwan", "subjects": [ "Japan", "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:40:35", "quote": "The Japanese, for example, may then conclude it's a time for them to go nuclear. If they go nuclear, the Koreans will conclude, well, if the Japanese go nuclear, we'll be going nuclear.", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "prediction": "There will be a congressional investigation into PRC-linked influence operations targeting US AI debates.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "foreign influence operations" ], "timestamp": "1:15:03", "quote": "There's going to be a congressional investigation of this.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "Chris Martenson", "prediction": "China will have to intervene in some meaningful way if the Gulf disruption continues, because it cannot accept the region being shut down for a year.", "timeframe": "within about a year", "subjects": [ "China", "Strait of Hormuz" ], "timestamp": "1:03:56", "quote": "It just, they're gonna have to intervene in some meaningful way, I would imagine.", "due": "2027-07-23", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Tucker Carlson", "prediction": "China will bail Japan out, neutralising the Japan problem and serving Beijing's interest in a dependent, non-nuclear Japan.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "China", "Japan" ], "timestamp": "1:17:32", "quote": "I predict a bailout by China, thereby neutralizing the Japan problem, which is one of China's biggest problems.", "episode_id": "the-tucker-carlson-show-2026-07-23-iran-war-expected-to-spark-global-energy-crisis-here-s-what-", "published_at": "2026-07-23" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "prediction": "The most likely beneficial outcome of the current world-order transition is a more regional arrangement, with the US and China each dominant in their own region rather than one global superpower.", "timeframe": "unspecified — over the course of the current world-order transition", "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:15:02", "quote": "China and I think the United States, I think the most likely beneficial outcome is that it becomes more regional, okay?", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Ray Dalio", "prediction": "The Taiwan issue will most likely be resolved through economic and political pressure leading to reunification with China, rather than through a full-scale US-China war.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:17:59", "quote": "but in the pressures that are going to be created so that there is a reunification of China.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next", "published_at": "2026-07-30" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "prediction": "China will have roughly 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less in 2028.", "timeframe": "in 2028", "subjects": [ "China", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "34:34", "quote": "it's pretty easy to say China will have like 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less.", "due": "2028-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "prediction": "Chinese domestic fabs (SMIC, CXMT) add 5-10 gigawatts of domestically produced compute in 2028 alone.", "timeframe": "in 2028", "subjects": [ "China", "SMIC", "CXMT" ], "timestamp": "35:46", "quote": "now they're incrementally adding 5, 10 gigawatts in just 2028 of domestically produced chips.", "due": "2028-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "prediction": "China can add 50 gigawatts of incremental compute in 2029, though quality-weighted that is worth closer to 20 gigawatts of American chips.", "timeframe": "in 2029", "subjects": [ "China", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "37:49", "quote": "it's completely reasonable that China in 2029 can do 50 gigs.", "due": "2029-12-31", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "prediction": "Nvidia, as the leading American open-source provider, will catch up to and blow past the Chinese models.", "timeframe": "by the end of 2027", "subjects": [ "Nvidia", "Jensen Huang", "China", "open source" ], "timestamp": "45:22", "quote": "He's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models, I think, by the end of 2027", "due": "2027-12-31", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "facts": [ { "statement": "Polymarket prices Taiwan as safe for 2026 at only a 6% chance of a China invasion this year, and ~17% by the end of 2027.", "subjects": [ "Taiwan", "China" ], "value": "6% (2026), 17% (by end-2027)", "timestamp": "1:12", "quote": "Polymarket says Taiwan is safe for 2026, only 6% chance China invades this year", "source": "Jason", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "China committed to buy more soybeans, US oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets at the summit.", "subjects": [ "China" ], "value": "200 Boeing jets", "timestamp": "1:12", "quote": "She committed to buy more soybeans, US oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets.", "source": "Jason", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "Boeing has already sold 200 planes to China and Kelly Ortberg wants to sell 500.", "subjects": [ "China" ], "value": "200 sold, 500 target", "timestamp": "9:06", "quote": "He's already sold 200 He wants to sell 500 planes.", "source": "Marc Benioff", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "Xi Jinping's central focus has been moving 500 million people from poverty into the middle class.", "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "value": "500 million people", "timestamp": "18:16", "quote": "President Xi's focus has been getting 500 million people from poverty into the middle class.", "source": "Marc Benioff", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "This is Trump's first visit to China since 2017 and the seventh face-to-face meeting between Trump and Xi.", "subjects": [ "Donald Trump", "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "value": "first since 2017; 7th meeting", "timestamp": "1:12", "quote": "This is the first visit to China since 2017", "source": "Jason", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-15-trump-xi-summit-benioff-not-my-first-saaspocalypse-openai-vs", "published_at": "2026-05-15" }, { "statement": "Kevin Rudd is a former Australian Prime Minister who is fluent in Mandarin and holds a PhD in Mandarin, and is a noted China watcher.", "subjects": [ "Kevin Rudd", "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "Kevin Rudd used to be the Australian Prime Minister, is fluent in Mandarin by the way, has a PhD in Mandarin, is really a she watcher.", "source": "Darren Farber", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "statement": "China's equivalent of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — who reportedly went to kindergarten with Xi Jinping — has disappeared.", "subjects": [ "China", "Xi Jinping" ], "timestamp": "18:29", "quote": "The Chinese equivalent of the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff has disappeared. He went to kindergarten with Xi Jinping. These guys are close.", "source": "Darren Farber", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "statement": "Japan, under a new (female) Prime Minister, has become vociferous in advocating for strong defense, reflecting a real historical rivalry between China and Japan.", "subjects": [ "China" ], "timestamp": "31:16", "quote": "Japan has been so vociferous at advocating for strong defense now under this new Prime Minister. She's tough lady.", "source": "Darren Farber", "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-26-darren-farber-on-iran-china-and-the-rise-of-neoprimes", "published_at": "2026-05-26" }, { "statement": "China announced in April (implied ~2025) it would cut off exports of Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium, Erbium, and Silver to the US.", "subjects": [ "China", "rare earths", "critical minerals" ], "timestamp": "0:03", "quote": "Last April, China announced that they were gonna cut off exports of some critical materials to the US. Samarium, Gandolinium, Turbium, Disprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium, Erbium, Silver. Just cut it off.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "statement": "Ford Motor Company was within days of its entire production line shutting down due to China's Samarium cobalt magnet export cutoff.", "subjects": [ "Ford Motor Company", "China", "critical minerals" ], "timestamp": "0:03", "quote": "the Ford Motor Company was within days, literally days, of their entire production line shutting down.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "statement": "McDonald Douglas was also near production shutdown from the same China export cutoff.", "subjects": [ "McDonald Douglas", "China", "critical minerals" ], "timestamp": "0:03", "quote": "And same with McDonald Douglas, too, by the way.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-10-dan-dreyfus-america-s-critical-minerals-crisis-is-here", "published_at": "2026-06-10" }, { "statement": "China started the cycle with half the US power generation capacity but now has three times the US capacity.", "subjects": [ "China", "US electric grid" ], "value": "US 2x China -> China 3x US", "timestamp": "13:06", "quote": "we started out this cycle with having 2x the power generation that China had. Fast forward to today, China has three times the power generation capacity that we have.", "source": "Dan Dreyfus", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "published_at": "2026-06-12" }, { "statement": "Aktis's radioisotope payload is Actinium, manufactured from Radium 233 as a waste product of US nuclear programs in the 1950s-60s, which is why it is unavailable in China.", "subjects": [ "Aktis Oncology", "China" ], "timestamp": "34:45", "quote": "Actis' radioisotope payload is Actinium. And Actinium is manufactured from Radium 233, which was used in our own nuclear programs in the US in the 50s and 60s. So it's a waste product from there.", "source": "Oleg Nodelman", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-12-all-in-s-best-ideas-pitch-competition-4-investors-present-th", "published_at": "2026-06-12" }, { "statement": "Chinese models have run roughly nine months behind US frontier models, plus or minus three months.", "subjects": [ "China" ], "value": "~9 months behind (+/- 3)", "timestamp": "55:40", "quote": "the Chinese have been, I'd say, nine months behind our models, plus or minus three months", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "Perplexity forked Chinese models early and restored censored content such as Tiananmen Square.", "subjects": [ "Perplexity", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:00:49", "quote": "Perplexity did this very early on with Chinese models. They showed that you could sort of put back the content on Tiananmen Square", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-26-socialists-sweep-nyc-china-catches-up-in-coding-ai-memory-cr", "published_at": "2026-06-26" }, { "statement": "Reuters reported that CCP officials are considering restricting overseas access to China's top models and making theft or leaks of AI research a national-security offense; regulators met with Alibaba, ByteDance, and z.ai.", "subjects": [ "China", "AI sovereignty" ], "timestamp": "53:41", "quote": "CCP officials, Chinese Communist Party, are reportedly considering restricting overseas access to China's top models.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "statement": "China's number-one model is ByteDance's (already closed), while Alibaba's Qwen and z.ai's GLM 5.2 were open and are reportedly going closed.", "subjects": [ "China", "ByteDance", "GLM" ], "timestamp": "56:03", "quote": "the number one model in China, as I understand it, is ByteDance's model, which is already closed.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-11-more-trillion-dollar-ipos-anthropic-3t-zuck-s-price-war-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-11" }, { "statement": "Rudd served in the Australian embassy in Beijing from 1984 until the beginning of 1987.", "subjects": [ "Kevin Rudd", "China" ], "value": "1984–1987", "timestamp": "5:03", "quote": "In Beijing from 84 through until virtually the beginning of 87", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "China stopped publishing its comprehensive-national-power comparisons for external audiences about twelve years ago.", "subjects": [ "China", "United States" ], "value": "~12 years ago", "timestamp": "1:22:22", "quote": "Interestingly, they stopped publishing this stuff for the rest of the world to see what their conclusions were about 12 years ago.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "Made in China 2025 set ten technology objectives in 2015 and is described as the largest industrial-policy exercise in economic history.", "subjects": [ "Made in China 2025", "China" ], "value": "10 technology objectives, set 2015", "timestamp": "1:01:52", "quote": "just look at China's Made in China 2025 strategy, which is the largest scale exercise in any nation's industrial policy seen in economic history.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "China's property market collapsed over the last five years before Xi put a floor under it around 2024, rescuing some developers.", "subjects": [ "China", "Xi Jinping" ], "value": "floor put under it ~2024", "timestamp": "1:01:52", "quote": "Over the last five years, the property market has collapsed through the floor, through a series of policy and political interventions by Xi Jinping.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "The party's unofficial growth-for-legitimacy social contract moved from 8% growth to 6%, with 4% treated as acceptable before it slid lower.", "subjects": [ "China", "Chinese Communist Party" ], "value": "8% → 6% → ~4%", "timestamp": "1:05:13", "quote": "The unofficial social contract used to be 8% growth, it then became 6% growth.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "Official US strategy toward China shifted from strategic engagement to strategic competition in the National Security Strategy written under HR McMaster, around December 2017.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China" ], "value": "December 2017", "timestamp": "1:25:20", "quote": "when the official American strategy towards China changed from strategic engagement to strategic competition", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "The recent Beijing summit produced a new Chinese-proposed organising principle called Constructive Strategic Stability, which the White House accepted subject to fairness and reciprocity.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "Donald Trump" ], "timestamp": "1:25:55", "quote": "where we now have a different organizing principle announced for the first time, this time by the Chinese, called Constructive Strategic Stability.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "Talks on regulating the most destabilising forms of AI emerged from the US Treasury secretary's conversations with his Chinese counterpart at the summit.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI governance" ], "timestamp": "1:25:55", "quote": "which is what came out of Scott Besson's conversations with his counterpart, Hurley Fung.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "Xi first used the phrase 'changes not seen in a hundred years' in 2017, on the centenary of the Bolshevik Revolution.", "subjects": [ "Xi Jinping", "China" ], "value": "2017", "timestamp": "1:22:22", "quote": "He first began using that phrase in 2017 on the 100th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution.", "source": "Kevin Rudd", "episode_id": "the-ezra-klein-show-2026-07-14-what-xi-jinping-wants", "published_at": "2026-07-14" }, { "statement": "China has blockaded the Taiwan Strait seven times over the last four years.", "subjects": [ "China", "Taiwan" ], "value": "7 Taiwan Strait blockades in 4 years", "timestamp": "16:34", "quote": "I think China has blockaded the Taiwan Straits seven times over the last four years.", "source": "Pat Gelsinger", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-", "published_at": "2026-07-15" }, { "statement": "One month before this episode, OpenAI published a blog post titled 'PRC Linked Influence Operations Are Targeting AI Debates in the US,' arguing China is behind influence campaigns shaping US attitudes on AI data centers.", "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "China", "foreign influence operations" ], "timestamp": "1:15:03", "quote": "OpenAI published a blog post called PRC Linked Influence Operations Are Targeting AI Debates in the US.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "The Chinese model KimiK3 came out and is said to be very close to the frontier, meaning the US may have only months of lead on China.", "subjects": [ "Kimi", "China" ], "timestamp": "1:18:11", "quote": "We may have months on China, if that.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "About 70% of AI data-center watts are deployed in America, versus under 10% in China.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "AI compute" ], "value": "US ~70% / China <10%", "timestamp": "34:34", "quote": "today, 70 percent of watts are being deployed in America", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "In 2022 the US was adding 45-50% of world compute and China 30-35%, before the export-control regime.", "subjects": [ "United States", "China", "Export controls" ], "value": "US 45-50% / China 30-35% (2022)", "timestamp": "34:34", "quote": "the US was adding about 45-50 percent of the world's compute. China was adding about 30-35 percent of the world's compute", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "The leading Chinese labs have at most 100-200 megawatts of compute in total, with ByteDance Seed the outlier.", "subjects": [ "China", "AI compute" ], "value": "100-200 MW total", "timestamp": "39:25", "quote": "The leading Chinese labs have 100, 200 megawatts total of compute at most.", "source": "Dylan Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "statement": "Axios reported, per X, that roughly 200 accounts from suspected Chinese bot farms tried to influence Americans to oppose AI data centers on social media.", "subjects": [ "China", "data centers", "X" ], "value": "~200 accounts", "timestamp": "56:06", "quote": "Roughly 200 accounts from suspected Chinese bot forms have quietly tried to influence Americans to oppose AI data centers on social media.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "Venezuelan oil has averaged $53 a barrel over the past ten years and $58 over the past five, and was sold to China at roughly a $20 discount.", "subjects": [ "Venezuela", "China" ], "value": "$53/bbl (10y), $58/bbl (5y)", "timestamp": "1:23:39", "quote": "Past ten years, $53 a barrel, past five years, $58 a barrel.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "China imported about 11 million barrels of crude a day before the Iran war; Venezuela produces about 1 million.", "subjects": [ "China", "Venezuela", "Iran war" ], "value": "~11M bpd", "timestamp": "1:27:56", "quote": "I think China imports like 11 million barrels a day of crude oil.", "source": "David Friedberg", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "first_seen": "2026-05-15", "last_seen": "2026-09-04" }