{
 "name": "AI value capture",
 "type": "concept",
 "episodes": [
  "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Dylan Patel",
   "claim": "Most of the value AI models generate is captured by their users, not by OpenAI and Anthropic.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "OpenAI",
    "Anthropic",
    "AI value capture",
    "Jane Street"
   ],
   "timestamp": "18:23",
   "quote": "most of the value that these models generate does not get given to OpenAI and Anthropic.",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel",
   "claim": "A higher discount rate from AI-driven interest rates will crater the valuation of stable-cash-flow, non-AI equities even if the index holds up.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "Interest rates",
    "AI value capture"
   ],
   "timestamp": "57:55",
   "quote": "if interest rates rise, the discount rate increases, which means that the discount cash flows of all equities crater",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dylan Patel",
   "claim": "If you take AI seriously, every non-AI asset should trade at two or three times earnings — meaning the stock market should crash.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "Interest rates",
    "AI value capture"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:01:28",
   "quote": "if you're really AI-pilled, everything in the economy should trade it like two or three times earnings.",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dylan Patel",
   "claim": "The one saving grace of the current arrangement is that Anthropic does not capture most of the value it creates — the rest of the economy does.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "AI value capture",
    "Jane Street"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:13:58",
   "quote": "the one positive thing here is that today, Anthropic does not capture most of the value.",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "holder": "Dylan Patel",
   "prediction": "By the end of 2027 a leading lab's blended revenue per megawatt reaches $70-80M or higher.",
   "timeframe": "by end of 2027",
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "OpenAI",
    "AI value capture"
   ],
   "timestamp": "25:55",
   "quote": "it's like 70, 80 million dollars a megawatt blended across the company, if not higher",
   "due": "2027-12-31",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  }
 ],
 "facts": [
  {
   "statement": "Anthropic's revenue per megawatt has reached as high as $50 million, against a $10-15M cost of compute.",
   "subjects": [
    "Anthropic",
    "AI value capture"
   ],
   "value": "$50M per MW",
   "timestamp": "0:36",
   "quote": "In the case of Anthropic, the revenue has gone as high as 50 million dollars per megawatt.",
   "source": "Dylan Patel",
   "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c",
   "published_at": "2026-08-25"
  }
 ],
 "first_seen": "2026-08-25",
 "last_seen": "2026-08-25"
}