{ "name": "AI regulation", "type": "concept", "episodes": [ "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban" ], "claims": [ { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "It's too early for the US to regulate/test frontier models, and the US doing it alone (without China) is undesirable; America already has self-regulation and the courts as recourse.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.65, "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "29:55", "quote": "I don't love the idea of the United States doing it and no one else doing it", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Gavin Baker", "claim": "Once you give a power to the government it's almost never taken back — it's a one-way ratchet — which is a reason to be wary of AI regulation.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "31:36", "quote": "once you give something, give a power to the government, it's almost never taken back. It needs to grow", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-05-22-spacex-s-2t-case-nvidia-s-shock-selloff-america-turns-on-ai-", "published_at": "2026-05-22" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "claim": "Holding back powerful AI models for three to six months is pointless because their weights fit on a USB stick and can be distilled within 24–48 hours of release.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "cybersecurity" ], "timestamp": "17:27", "quote": "I don't think holding back our models for three to six months is going to help us any. Somebody else is going to put them out in open source.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "Nikesh Arora", "claim": "Models will become a utility layer differentiated by intelligence level and cost per task, not by provider brand — enterprises will buy the right IQ for the job.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "14:05", "quote": "I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You will be able to buy intelligence on the fly, or you can say, I don't need 180 IQ person to go do this task, give me 120 IQ", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The export-control letter was a reaction to a credible national-security threat, not an intended new policy requiring government approval of every model release.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "42:52", "quote": "I don't view what the administration did as a policy-making exercise.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "Frontier-lab missteps will let hyperscalers convince governments worldwide to make them the gatekeepers, wrapping AI access in KYC and creating a duopoly/oligopoly that wipes out the neo-scaler market.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "the hyperscalers", "AI regulation", "AI" ], "timestamp": "47:00", "quote": "Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Antagonizing the government to create a regulatory framework and then feeling antagonized when they regulate you is strange behavior unique to Anthropic, which better explains the perception than a political motivation.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "50:48", "quote": "antagonizing the government to create a regulatory framework and then feeling antagonized when they regulate you just seems a little bit weird", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "We are all losers if government picks winners and one company owns the whole AI stack; an entire model fits on a USB drive and its value is time-bound, so this is a poor end state.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "AI" ], "timestamp": "50:48", "quote": "we're all losers if the government is going to be picking winners and losers in AI", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "If a politically neutral company like Gemini had handled the model release exactly as Anthropic did, the panel would have approved each step, so there is a real political beef driving the differential treatment of Anthropic.", "stance": "steelman", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "56:25", "quote": "I'm going to steel man for the good of the pod.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The AI industry should self-certify models against an agreed set of tests rather than asking a government that doesn't understand the models to certify them.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "frontier labs" ], "timestamp": "56:25", "quote": "We need to have a set of tests that Google, Microsoft, Amazon, all agree to", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Anthropic believes AI is super dangerous and only they are virtuous enough to control it, captured the Biden administration, and effectively wants an AI cartel by framing competition as a dangerous race condition.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:04:35", "quote": "they believe that AI is super dangerous and only they are virtuous enough to basically control the negatives of it", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "Waiting to regulate until most people have lost their jobs is already too late, because the companies will likely already have superintelligence by then.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "jobs" ], "timestamp": "1:03:16", "quote": "if you wait until most people have lost their jobs to regulate the AI companies, that's already too late, because they will probably already have super intelligent AI by then", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "He would immediately press a button for a temporary AI shutdown because civilization is not ready, but would agonize over a permanent one.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:47:24", "quote": "I would totally slam that button because we are not ready to do this.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "claim": "The core problem is that people aren't taking AI risk seriously yet; broad public attention would itself produce better, more precise regulation.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:52:00", "quote": "the core problem is that people aren't taking it seriously yet.", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" }, { "holder": "Jason Calacanis", "claim": "The AI industry should self-certify its models against agreed tests — like the MPAA or video-game industry — rather than have a government that doesn't understand the models certify them.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "self-regulatory organization" ], "timestamp": "3:13", "quote": "The industry should have an industry certification like they do for countless other things.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "The Finra/NFA self-regulatory-organization model maps well to AI because an independent expert body can adjust tests faster than a new government agency while keeping federal oversight.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "self-regulatory organization", "Finra", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "4:18", "quote": "the analogy with AI is pretty appropriate here", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Friedberg", "claim": "Any AI self-regulatory scheme must not restrict open source, because compliance costs are where regulatory capture happens and startups and open source need to compete.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "open source", "regulatory capture", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "13:22", "quote": "Can't restrict open source. I think that's so important", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "A self-regulatory organization for AI would be far better than a new government agency, which would become a slow 'DMV for AI' and cause the US to lose the AI race.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "self-regulatory organization", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "7:16", "quote": "I think an SRO approach would be infinitely better than that if it was done right.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "An 'FAA for AI' would be an extreme permission-based regime that slows model releases from months to years, and the US would simply lose the AI race to China under it.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "Dario Amodei" ], "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "Again, I think we'll just simply lose the AI race if that happens because China is not going to abide by those rules.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Anthropic's support for the SRO is merely an opening bid; it will use the SRO as a stepping stone toward the far stricter FAA-for-AI regime Dario has repeatedly called for.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "Dario Amodei", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "However, I think this is just an opening bid for Anthropic, meaning they'll take this, thank you very much.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "A torrent of money will try to influence both political parties to regulate AI in a way that produces regulatory capture, so establishing SRO rules quickly is critical to close that off-ramp.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "regulatory capture", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "13:39", "quote": "there's going to be a torrent of money that's going to try to influence both sides of the political aisle to regulate this in a way that creates some form of regulatory capture.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Making concessions to buy off politicians just leads government to ratchet up demands until AI is fully under its control; tech companies need to grow a spine and draw a line.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "regulatory capture" ], "timestamp": "18:57", "quote": "So at some point, I think these companies are going to have to grow a spine and fight and decide where they're willing to draw a line.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "There is a huge moral panic around AI over catastrophes that haven't happened, and in response the US is on the verge of destroying its crown jewel — the free-market innovation system.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:17:08", "quote": "We have a huge moral panic going on with respect to AI.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "There is no clean way to separate legitimate from harmful uses of AI, so a hard no-harm principle necessarily means restricting public access to the most capable models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "AI governance" ], "timestamp": "1:03:00", "quote": "there's no clean way to separate out the legitimate and the potentially harmful uses of AI.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "published_at": "2026-08-11" }, { "holder": "Dwarkesh Patel", "claim": "Liability for crimes committed with AI assistance should sit with the end user rather than the AI company.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "AI governance" ], "timestamp": "1:03:00", "quote": "it would not make sense to hold AI companies liable for the crimes that AI models commit, and maybe we should hold the end user liable", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "published_at": "2026-08-11" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The safety regulation the US labs advocate for slows them down far more than it slows open-source Chinese models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "China" ], "timestamp": "16:03", "quote": "This regulation that they advocate for is actually slowing down the labs a lot more than it slows down sort of the open source Chinese language models.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "Because the labs are withholding their best models, revenue per megawatt can stall or decline as competing models catch up.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "16:03", "quote": "They're clearly not releasing their best models, and in which case, the revenue per megawatt stalls or even can start to decline again because other models are competitive again.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "State-level data-center restrictions will cut supply, raise costs, and pass those costs through — making AI regulation inflationary.", "stance": "prediction", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "AI compute" ], "timestamp": "28:31", "quote": "These sorts of things are going to decrease supply and increase cost and that's going to get passed on as well.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "In a takeoff scenario Anthropic would keep its best model roughly six months ahead of anything released externally, for both safety and competitive reasons.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.7, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "28:31", "quote": "why would Anthropic not have their best model six months ahead of what is externally available because of safety and regulation, but also the competitive advantage.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "The limiter on AGI is not researcher throughput but how much the rest of the world permits the reallocation of capital toward it.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AGI", "AI regulation", "AI capex" ], "timestamp": "1:01:28", "quote": "the limiter on AGI is not how fast can the research engineers like our roommate Sholto can crank the gears. It's actually just like, how much does the rest of the world let that happen?", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "A slow takeoff remains possible even with capable models, because economic and regulatory friction — not capability — is the binding constraint.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.6, "subjects": [ "Recursive self-improvement", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:03:00", "quote": "But slow takeoff is, at least in my hope, possible because everything in the economy and regulatory world", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "Dylan Patel", "claim": "Neither the government nor the lab CEOs should be trusted with centralized control of AI.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "Dario Amodei", "Sam Altman", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:12:47", "quote": "I don't trust the government and I don't trust Dario and I don't trust Sam.", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the-world-s-c", "published_at": "2026-08-25" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "America is winning the AI race as long as it avoids self-inflicted wounds like an FDA-style AI regulatory agency, which will not happen under Trump.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI race", "AI regulation", "Donald Trump" ], "timestamp": "5:19", "quote": "I think we are winning the AI race, as long as we don't do something stupid to shoot ourselves in the foot.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "The Hugging Face hack narrative was a hysteria manufactured by people with undisclosed conflicts of interest, quickly debunked technically, then amplified and cited by frontier-lab policy teams asking for regulation.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "Dwarkesh Patel", "AI regulation", "effective altruism", "Hugging Face" ], "timestamp": "21:10", "quote": "what I see are folks that have undisclosed conflicts of interest trying to create a hysteria.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "An FDA-style AI approval process would not have caught the incident because it was internal pre-release testing, which is exactly how labs learn and fix problems.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "OpenAI" ], "timestamp": "34:11", "quote": "But look, even if we had an FDA for AI, it wouldn't have worked because this was in pre-testing.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Guardrails already backfired: Hugging Face was forced to use the Chinese GLM 5.2 model for cyber defense because the latest GPT model refused to cooperate, so restrictions deny Western defenders the best American models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Hugging Face", "GLM 5.2", "OpenAI", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "34:11", "quote": "They're being forced to turn to Chinese models for cyber defense because the guardrails have prevented them from having the latest and greatest American models.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The answer to AI-powered cyber attacks is AI-powered cyber defense in the hands of CISOs, because guardrails will not stop bad actors from getting the capabilities.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "cybersecurity", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "36:37", "quote": "The right solution here is to meet the AI-powered cyber attacks with AI-powered cyber defense, because frankly, the guardrails don't work.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "claim": "His sole objection to the EA network is undisclosed conflicts of interest; a community that wants an oligopoly can engineer it by creating a hysteria and then offering the solution.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "effective altruism", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "43:12", "quote": "one of the most effective things that one can do is to create a hysteria and then come and offer a solution.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The AI political debate is shifting from accelerationists versus doomers to open versus closed, because consumer and business adoption makes it clear AI will not be stopped.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.8, "subjects": [ "AI regulation", "open source", "AI politics" ], "timestamp": "47:23", "quote": "Now I think where the debate is moving to is open versus closed, which is I think it's going to be very clear that AI is just not going to be stopped.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "The frontier duopoly lobbies aggressively for a new regulatory agency because regulatory capture would let it control that agency and shut out open models.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.85, "subjects": [ "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "AI regulation", "open source" ], "timestamp": "49:35", "quote": "And that duopoly has been aggressively lobbying for a new regulatory agency. Why? Because of red capture, they can now control it.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "Dario Amodei", "reported_by": "David Sacks", "claim": "Sufficiently advanced open models are dangerous because they are not centrally managed and controlled.", "stance": "assertion", "conviction": 0.75, "subjects": [ "open source", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "49:35", "quote": "Dario has already said in a Senate testimony that he thinks open models, if sufficiently advanced, are dangerous because they're not centrally managed and controlled.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "holder": "David Sacks", "claim": "Trump is the best friend innovators have in Washington and the person Sacks would most want deciding technology policy, because his instincts favor winning without unnecessary regulation or doomer anxiety.", "stance": "opinion", "conviction": 0.9, "subjects": [ "Donald Trump", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "52:15", "quote": "I have told you guys before that Trump is ultimately the best friend of innovators in Washington.", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "predictions": [ { "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "prediction": "Users will be required to submit identity documents (driver's license, tax ID, social security number) to hyperscalers to use frontier models like Fable 5, creating a KYC gatekeeping regime.", "timeframe": "unspecified", "subjects": [ "the hyperscalers", "AI regulation", "Fable" ], "timestamp": "49:29", "quote": "If you have to put in your driver's license to buy fertilizer, you're sure as shit will have to put in your driver's license to use Fable 5", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-19-world-s-first-trillionaire-anthropic-fable-banned-the-new-ol", "published_at": "2026-06-19" }, { "holder": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "prediction": "AI will be maybe the most important issue in the 2028 US presidential election.", "timeframe": "2028 US election", "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:16:34", "quote": "We think it will be maybe the most important issue in the presidential election in 2028", "due": "2028-11-07", "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-13-openai-whistleblower-finally-speaks-ai-has-a-70-chance-of-go", "published_at": "2026-07-13" } ], "facts": [ { "statement": "A leading model company's entire model weights fit on a USB stick and can be distilled within 24–48 hours after release.", "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "18:04", "quote": "Entire model weights of their newest model fits on a USB stick. That's the IP.", "source": "Nikesh Arora", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-06-08-nikesh-arora-mythos-is-real-analytical-saas-is-dead-and-goog", "published_at": "2026-06-08" }, { "statement": "DeepMind's Demis Hassabis proposed a US-led international AI standards body modeled on Finra: frontier labs would submit models 30 days before release, voluntary at first then mandatory, assessed on cyber, national-security, biological, and other high-risk domains, with benchmarks updated quarterly and the power to coordinate a development slowdown.", "subjects": [ "Demis Hassabis", "DeepMind", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:32", "quote": "Frontier Labs would submit their models 30 days before release, and it would be voluntary initially, then mandatory at some point.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "Supporters of Hassabis's AI SRO proposal include Elon Musk (calling it thoughtful), Sam Altman, Anthropic's Jack Clark, Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Block's Jack Dorsey, and the Collison brothers.", "subjects": [ "Demis Hassabis", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:32", "quote": "we have Elon who said it was thoughtful, Sam at OpenAI, Jack Clark at Anthropic, Sundar, Satya, Jack Dorsey from Block, the Carlson brothers.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "FAA type certification for an entirely new aircraft design takes five to nine years (three to five years to amend an existing certificate); the Boeing 737 MAX took about five years.", "subjects": [ "AI regulation" ], "value": "5-9 years new design; 3-5 years amendment", "timestamp": "8:29", "quote": "for an entirely new aircraft design, it takes five to nine years to get the certification.", "source": "David Sacks", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-18-can-the-ai-industry-regulate-itself-stripe-wants-paypal-chin", "published_at": "2026-07-18" }, { "statement": "A frontier model was reportedly restricted after Amazon researchers reported to the government that it identified vulnerabilities in code supplied to it.", "subjects": [ "Mythos", "Amazon", "AI regulation" ], "timestamp": "1:03:00", "quote": "the reason that Mythos got banned or Fable got banned, reportedly, is that some Amazon researchers reported the government", "source": "Dwarkesh Patel", "episode_id": "dwarkesh-podcast-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-ai-researc", "published_at": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "Bernie Sanders is proposing legislation to pause AI development and ban AI superintelligence, citing Dwarkesh's blog post.", "subjects": [ "Bernie Sanders", "AI regulation", "Dwarkesh Patel" ], "timestamp": "29:53", "quote": "he is now proposing new legislation to pause AI development and ban AI superintelligence, citing Dwarkesh's blog post in his announcement.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" }, { "statement": "Polymarket gives an 11% chance of an AI safety bill passing this year.", "subjects": [ "Polymarket", "AI regulation" ], "value": "11%", "timestamp": "33:47", "quote": "Only 11% chance of AI safety bill this year.", "source": "Jason Calacanis", "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban", "published_at": "2026-09-04" } ], "first_seen": "2026-05-22", "last_seen": "2026-09-04" }