{
 "name": "AI bubble",
 "type": "concept",
 "episodes": [
  "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
  "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-28-dan-loeb-lessons-from-30-years-of-investing",
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
  "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-",
  "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
  "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
  "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban"
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "holder": "Gavin Baker",
   "claim": "Baker is worried about a 'diversity breakdown' — everyone has become bullish on AI / DRAM and there are too few bears — which historically precedes a bubble.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.65,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "DRAM"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:00:06",
   "quote": "I don't know anyone like me who's not really bullish on DRAM.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-20-gavin-baker-watts-and-wafers",
   "published_at": "2026-05-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Dan Loeb",
   "claim": "Today's AI capex cycle is not a dot-com-style bubble: hyperscalers fund investment from enormous cash generation off their balance sheets, and the valuation excess of that era is absent.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "hyperscalers"
   ],
   "timestamp": "38:14",
   "quote": "You don't have the valuation bubble now on those companies that you had on those companies back in those days.",
   "episode_id": "invest-like-the-best-2026-05-28-dan-loeb-lessons-from-30-years-of-investing",
   "published_at": "2026-05-28"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "AI is the biggest investment bubble that has arguably ever occurred.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "US stock market"
   ],
   "timestamp": "1:43",
   "quote": "And now we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred, AI.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "AI is a genuinely transformative idea on par with the railroads — which is exactly why it forms a bubble.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "artificial intelligence",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "5:24",
   "quote": "I think artificial intelligence is right up there with the railroads. It's one of the defining great ideas of the last couple of hundred years.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "The greater and more obvious the idea, the more money pours in, and the bigger the bubble and the bust.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "5:24",
   "quote": "The greater the idea, the more obvious the idea, the more money goes in, and the bigger the bubble, and the bigger the bust.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "SpaceX's soaring valuation is a textbook market-peak euphoria signal.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "SpaceX",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "46:11",
   "quote": "It's the classic description of a market peak. It's what you look for at the top of a terrific bubble.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "Founders should lock up as much capital as possible now and brace for impending problems.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "startups",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "27:29",
   "quote": "Just brace yourself for impending problems, which is a pretty good principle anytime, but it is a better principle than normal today.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Pat Gelsinger",
   "claim": "Energy capacity is a hard upper bound on the AI buildout — nobody builds data centers or buys GPUs without energy — which guarantees the AI bubble can't get too far ahead of itself.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "AI buildout"
   ],
   "timestamp": "18:28",
   "quote": "there is a silver lining here that guarantees we don't get too far ahead of ourselves in terms of bubble, and that is energy capacity.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-",
   "published_at": "2026-07-15"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Pat Gelsinger",
   "claim": "Unlike dot-com speculation, today's AI companies have real revenues and margins; periodic corrections that keep multiples reasonable are healthy because the trajectory won't be a smooth curve.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "21:45",
   "quote": "periodic corrections that keep the multiple, you know, earnings multiples and so on, and reasonable things is good because this will not be a smooth curve.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-15-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next-lovable-ceo-",
   "published_at": "2026-07-15"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "This AI bubble is not the traditional dot-com bubble aimed at the broader public — it is a private-capital-driven bubble that could primarily destroy VC funds and PE firms that went all in.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "venture capital",
    "private equity"
   ],
   "timestamp": "0:30",
   "quote": "it's not a bubble that's going to impact most people in the room, right? Or most people across the US. But it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE., right? Because they're going all in.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Companies are layering expensive private-credit borrowing, including 50-year bonds, on top of capex spent from cash flow, which is 'planning for perfection.'",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "private credit",
    "data centers",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "2:23",
   "quote": "That's planning for perfection.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "If a price-performance breakthrough sharply reduces AI's power requirements, many data centers being built today will end up repurposed rather than fully utilized.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.65,
   "subjects": [
    "data centers",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "2:46",
   "quote": "there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "AI and data-center compute could follow the same trajectory as fiber-optic bandwidth, which went from scarce to abundant as price-performance improved by orders of magnitude, eliminating the 'bandwidth problem.'",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.6,
   "subjects": [
    "data centers",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "3:02",
   "quote": "Then it went from one gigabyte fiber to 10 to 100 gigabyte. And then there wasn't a fiber problem anymore.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "SPEAKER_1",
   "claim": "The AI capex boom is being priced for perfection: the hundreds of billions committed have to come back not just as revenue but as actual profit margin.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "OpenAI"
   ],
   "timestamp": "3:55",
   "quote": "And that's going to come back, not just in revenue, but it has to come back in earnings.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Because this AI boom is driven by private capital, more companies should IPO at modest scale so they have public stock as acquisition currency; he is pushing his own portfolio companies to go public.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "IPO",
    "AI bubble",
    "venture capital"
   ],
   "timestamp": "4:16",
   "quote": "And I'm trying to tell my portfolio companies, go public, motherf**kers, go public. They just don't think that's the right thing to do.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "If AI disrupts industries the way it is expected to, the disruptive companies will not need to be enormous, so a frozen large-scale M&A market matters less than it otherwise would.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "M&A"
   ],
   "timestamp": "6:17",
   "quote": "if AI does what we know it will do, the companies that are disruptive don't have to be enormous companies.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "AI is far harder to implement profitably at the enterprise level than anyone expected, even though individual use (agents, personal productivity) is easy.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "enterprise AI ROI",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "8:15",
   "quote": "So AI is a lot harder to implement than anybody expected. For sure.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "AI is not going to take away 50% of jobs because there is still so much ordinary work it cannot do, though this gap creates enormous entrepreneurial opportunity instead.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "job loss",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "11:07",
   "quote": "But AI is not going to take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much it can't do that regular people need it to do.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "There is no better time to be an entrepreneur than now, because AI's impact is most pronounced for entrepreneurs everywhere in the world, not just in traditional tech hubs.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "11:38",
   "quote": "there's no better time to be an entrepreneur.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Even a wrong AI-generated business plan is valuable as a fast directional guideline, because every business plan ever written turns out to be wrong anyway.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "12:59",
   "quote": "every single motherf***ing business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Once you move past AI's easy first level of usefulness, using it well requires the kind of specialized expertise Excel or PowerPoint power-users once provided, creating a large consulting opportunity for people who understand both AI and a given business's failure points.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "enterprise AI ROI",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "14:25",
   "quote": "it's like figuring out PowerPoint used to be or Excel, right? You always have to have your Excel expert",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Everything AI is currently built on — text and images — will not be how AI works in ten years; video and embodied world models are the missing piece.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "world models",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "19:22",
   "quote": "Nothing's going to be text and pictures in 10 years, right?",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Personal-health AI tools will make doctors smarter without replacing them, because roughly 95% of medicine today is educated guessing given how impossible it is for any doctor to memorize all new research.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "OpenEvidence",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "23:51",
   "quote": "95% of medicine is guessing, you know, because you can't, there's no way a doctor can memorize all the new that happens every single day.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "claim": "Large language models, because they must be truth-seeking to keep users' trust, will act as a countervailing force against social media's engagement-driven algorithms and reduce political information asymmetry.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "politics"
   ],
   "timestamp": "27:04",
   "quote": "large language models have to be as literate and literal and honest as they possibly can.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "The economy is currently showing classic signs of an AI-driven investment bubble, which has negative implications for the economy and society.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "0:04",
   "quote": "They're classic signs, and that has implications for the economy and it's bad for the society, and everybody loses money.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "claim": "The data on the AI market is compatible with history for the peak to arrive very soon.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.6,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "3:02",
   "quote": "If you look at the data, it would be compatible with history for the peak to be very soon.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "Wealth is not the same as money — people accumulate wealth on paper but must sell it to get spendable money, which is a key mechanism behind bubble dynamics.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "3:53",
   "quote": "Wealth is not the same as money. So you see a lot of people getting wealthy, but you can't spend the wealth.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "Bubbles are typically pricked first by rising interest rates, which force investors to sell wealth to get money to service debt.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "12:26",
   "quote": "The things that prick the bubbles, typically in the beginning, are something that means that I have to sell some wealth to get money. And that's usually a rise in interest rates.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "In the AI era, people will either be in the cutting-edge top fraction of a percent to 10% who use AI to accelerate, or be at risk of losing a thinking job to replacement.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "labor market",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "30:51",
   "quote": "you will either be cutting edge and capable and among that top fraction of a percent down to 10% of the population who is cutting edge and using it and accelerating, or you will, if you're in a thinking job, be at risk of being replaced.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "The unemployment rate is driven far more heavily by bubbles bursting and financial crises than by the slower structural trend of AI/robotics replacing labor.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "labor market",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "36:45",
   "quote": "the unemployment rate is very heavily affected by that bubble bursting.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "Silicon Valley's narrative that AI will create as many new jobs as it destroys is partly self-interested, since the people producing the technology are the ones profiting from it and don't want to be blamed.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "Silicon Valley",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "43:25",
   "quote": "Who is producing the technology that doesn't want to be attacked because they're making a lot of money.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Ray Dalio",
   "claim": "Once AI replaces both physical and cognitive labor, what remains for humans to sell is emotion and intuition, which artificial intelligence lacks.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.75,
   "subjects": [
    "labor market",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "45:22",
   "quote": "What man has is emotions and has intuitions. There are certain things that artificial intelligence doesn't have.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-07-30-ray-dalio-i-predicted-the-2008-crash-i-know-what-comes-next",
   "published_at": "2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "claim": "Late-stage AI companies priced at 50 to 100 times revenue reflect a disconnect from reality that is not sustainable unless the founder is a proven one-of-one operator.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "venture capital"
   ],
   "timestamp": "8:56",
   "quote": "They're being priced at 50 to 100 times top line revenue. That's obviously not sustainable.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "David Friedberg",
   "claim": "Unlike the dot-com boom, which ran on non-dollar metrics, this cycle is backed by unprecedented real revenue and profit growth at Anthropic and across data centers and networking.",
   "stance": "assertion",
   "conviction": 0.8,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "Anthropic",
    "data centers"
   ],
   "timestamp": "12:08",
   "quote": "What we're seeing now is revenue and profits and growth in revenue and profits that we've never seen before. That's kind of the anthropic story.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "claim": "The market is in the early part of a euphoria that will not stop for roughly three more years; bubbles burst only when investors realize they priced reality too far forward.",
   "stance": "prediction",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "14:09",
   "quote": "I honestly, I don't see this stopping. We're at the beginning of the beginning. I think it's going to be like this for another probably three years.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "David Sacks",
   "claim": "The current cycle feels more like 1998 than 1999 because the peak has not been seen yet.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.7,
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "14:50",
   "quote": "I think it's more 1998 than 1999 because I don't think we've seen the peak yet.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jason Calacanis",
   "claim": "Founders should sell 10 to 20 percent of their holdings now and take large rounds at any reasonable valuation rather than delay raises, because cash on the cap table is survival optionality if the cycle turns.",
   "stance": "opinion",
   "conviction": 0.85,
   "subjects": [
    "founders",
    "AI bubble",
    "venture capital"
   ],
   "timestamp": "16:46",
   "quote": "you're within your rights to sell 10 to 20 percent of your holdings now, especially if you're a first-time founder and you don't have your nut yet.",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  }
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "prediction": "The AI/market bubble will peak and collapse — possibly within days, weeks or months, but certainly within the next few years.",
   "timeframe": "next few years",
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble",
    "US stock market"
   ],
   "timestamp": "2:15",
   "quote": "The next few days, the next few weeks, the next few months, but certainly the next few years.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Jeremy Grantham",
   "prediction": "From these unprecedented levels, a 70% decline in the high-flying stocks would not be unexpected.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "US stock market",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "10:32",
   "quote": "From these unprecedented levels, a 70% decline would not be unexpected.",
   "episode_id": "the-diary-of-a-ceo-2026-06-25-billionaire-s-warning-i-m-selling-the-crash-is-already-here",
   "published_at": "2026-06-25"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Mark Cuban",
   "prediction": "As people grow more uncertain about politics, they will increasingly turn to large language models rather than social media for guidance on questions like who to vote for, and will get more honest, balanced answers.",
   "timeframe": "unspecified",
   "subjects": [
    "politics",
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "28:19",
   "quote": "I think people, as they become more uncertain with their politics, are going to go more and more and more to large language models and say, who should I vote for?",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  },
  {
   "holder": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
   "prediction": "The AI euphoria will continue roughly three more years before the cycle turns.",
   "timeframe": "about three years",
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "14:09",
   "quote": "I think it's going to be like this for another probably three years.",
   "due": "2029-09-04",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  {
   "holder": "David Sacks",
   "prediction": "The market may reach 1999-style peak euphoria by the end of 2026.",
   "timeframe": "by the end of 2026",
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "timestamp": "18:55",
   "quote": "Well, we might be partying like it's 1999 by the end of this year.",
   "due": "2026-12-31",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-09-04-gpt-6-hits-agi-tech-euphoria-2-0-sf-mansion-shortage-nyc-ban",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04"
  }
 ],
 "facts": [
  {
   "statement": "Cuban prompted an AI model to produce a patent outline, business plan, and licensing guidance for an imaginary 24-hour-recording camera company, and it delivered results in 12 minutes.",
   "subjects": [
    "AI bubble"
   ],
   "value": "12 minutes",
   "timestamp": "11:38",
   "quote": "12 minutes.",
   "source": "Mark Cuban",
   "episode_id": "all-in-2026-07-20-mark-cuban-on-the-ai-bubble-who-actually-gets-wiped-out",
   "published_at": "2026-07-20"
  }
 ],
 "first_seen": "2026-05-20",
 "last_seen": "2026-09-04"
}